Real Madrid vs Atalanta Prediction: Back Vini to score anytime in Super Cup Final

The UEFA Super Cup is on Wednesday night as the winners of the Europa League face-off against the Champions League victors.

We are delighted to welcome our La Liga expert back to the fold for the season and he kicks-off his 24/25 campaign with his Real Madrid vs Atalanta Predictions for the 20:00 kick-off live on TNT Sports 1...

Real Madrid and Atalanta meet in the traditional European season curtain-raiser on Wednesday night. The National Stadium in Warsaw is the setting for the encounter.

This is the ninth time that Los Blancos have competed for the UEFA Super Cup. They most recently defeated Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 in 2022 to make it a joint record five Super Cup victories for the team from the Spanish capital, but they have been beaten three times in the fixture too, including a 2018 loss against city rivals Atleti. 

That was the last time the Europa League holders won this trophy, a record that Atalanta are bidding to put straight on Wednesday. They are making their Super Cup debut following a remarkable run to glory in Europe’s secondary competition last term that culminated in a shock 3-0 win over Bayer Leverkusen in Dublin, courtesy of a hat-trick from former Everton winger Ademola Lookman. 

As was the case on that night, Atalanta will be underdogs again on Wednesday against a star-studded Real Madrid side. Los Blancos enjoyed one of their best ever seasons last time around, winning their 36th Spanish title and 15th European Cup, whilst not suffering a single defeat outside of Madrid. 

Ominously for their domestic and European rivals, they’ve since finally put an end to one of football’s longest running transfer sagas, by sealing a deal for Kylian Mbappé. The arrival of arguably the best player in the world, should in theory only strengthen Los Blancos, however it’s not a signing without risk. 

Aside from concerns about the impact of bringing a genuine superstar into one of the most stable and harmonious Real Madrid dressing rooms there has ever been, Carlo Ancelotti must figure out how to make it work on the pitch. 

Mbappé’s arrival is likely to lead to a shift in formation with Vinícius Júnior and Rodrgyo expected to shuffle out to the flanks, having both operated as central forwards last term. The presence of a genuine number nine will also have a knock-on impact for Jude Bellingham, who excelled in a very advanced role in his debut campaign in Spain. 

With all of those players involved until the latter stages of summer tournaments, we’re yet to see them operate together in a pre-season campaign that has seen Los Blancos lose narrowly to Milan and Barcelona, before beating Chelsea 2-1 in the United States thanks to goals from Lucas Vázquez and Brahim Díaz. 

Atalanta will be hoping they can take advantage of any rustiness in the Real Madrid camp, with the likes of Bellingham and Mbappé yet to feature following the Euros. The Italians don’t exactly take great pre-season form into the fixture though, with their last two friendlies resulting in a 4-1 defeat to Parma and a 3-0 loss against St. Pauli. 

They’d have anticipated interest in a number of their players following their stunning Europa League run which also saw them shock Liverpool 3-0 at Anfield en-route to the final. They’re yet to lose any of the 11 who started against Leverkusen in May, although star midfielder Teun Koopmeiners is pushing for a move to Juventus and has refused to train in recent days. 

That’s an unwelcome distraction for Gian Piero Gasperini heading into this game and the new Serie A season, which they commence on Monday. In brighter news, they’ve completed the permanent addition of Charles De Ketelaere from Millan while forward Mateo Retegui is their other standout summer buy following a €22m switch from Genoa. 

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Team News: 

Despite a number of key players not featuring at all in pre-season, Ancelotti has taken all of his big hitters to Poland and is expected to name a very strong eleven. That should give us the first real indication as to how the new Real Madrid will look with Mbappé and without Toni Kroos who retired from all football from Germany’s Euro 2024 exit. 

Even long-term injury absentee David Alaba is included in the squad, with no other notable selection issues. However, with so many players only just returning to training after Euro 2024 and Copa América commitments, Real Madrid are still way short of being in peak condition for this match. 

The same could also be said of Atalanta who have only played three times in pre-season and are yet to win. They travel without Koopmeiners who is also being linked with Liverpool. 

Gianluca Scamacca is a notable injury absentee, with the former West Ham striker impressing last season with six Europa League goals. Highly rated central defender Giorgio Scalvini and new signing Nicolò Zaniolo will also miss this one. 

Real Madrid vs Atalanta Odds

Real Madrid come into the UEFA Super Cup as the 4/9 favourites in the match result market with the draw on offer at 16/5 while Atalanta are priced at 9/2. 

The expectation is that we’ll get goals. Both teams to score is available at 8/11, while you can get odds of 8/13 for the match to produce over 2.5 goals. 

Much of the focus will inevitably be on Mbappé as he makes his Real Madrid debut. You can back the Frenchman to score first at 3/1 while he’s 9/10 to score anytime. Mbappé is also available at 15/2 to receive a card and 80/1 to be sent off in Warsaw.  

As for Bellingham, he’s 13/8 to score anytime in his first appearance since the Euro 2024 final. 

From an Atalanta perspective, new signing Retegui may lead the line and he’s 3/1 to score anytime. You can also back Europa League final hero Lookman to score anytime at 16/5 while he’s 120/1 to score three or more, following on from his hat-trick in Dublin in May. 

Bet 1 - Over 2.5 goals & over 6.5 corners @ 17/20

Atalanta’s natural instinct is to attack and they may sense weakness in a Real Madrid starting eleven that is likely to feature a number of players who are yet to clock up a single minute in pre-season. That should help ensure this is a very watchable game, as UEFA Super Cup fixtures often are with eight of the last nine editions seeing both teams score. 

The Italian side has been defending poorly in pre-season though, with nine conceded in their three friendlies to date. While there may be some teething problems for Real Madrid’s new look attack, the individual quality they possess, means they shouldn’t be short on attacking inspiration. 

I can see it being quite open with both sides carrying a goal threat and I’m using the #PickYourPunt tool to back over 2.5 goals and over 6.5 corners at 17/20. 

Bet 2 - Vinícius Júnior to score anytime @ 5/4

Between them, Mbappé, Vinícius, Rodrygo and Bellingham are likely to form a potentially devastating attacking unit this season for Real Madrid. Of the quartet, Vinícius should be the sharpest heading into this match, having featured in two of his team’s three pre-season games. 

There are doubts over whether Mbappé or Bellingham will be ready for 90 minutes, but Vinícius has been building up to that and Ancelotti looks less likely to replace the Brazilian on Wednesday night. 

The 24-year-old frequently produces his best football when there’s silverware at stake, scoring in the Champions League final last season while he bagged a hat-trick in the Spanish Supercopa final. I can see him netting in his third final of 2024 so I’m backing Vinícius Júnior to score anytime at 5/4. 

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...