Real Madrid vs Arsenal Bet Builder Tips: Shots to rain down on Raya in 20/1 effort

Real Madrid were well and truly humbled at the Emirates Stadium last Tuesday as a Declan Rice double inspired Arsenal to a 3-0 win in the first leg of their Uefa Champions League quarter-final tie. The sides meet again on Wednesday (20:00, TNT Sports 1), this time at the Santiago Bernabeu, where special things usually happen for Los Blancos. Will we see one of the all-time great European comebacks in the Spanish capital?

Below are my Real Madrid vs Arsenal Bet Builder tips as I combine four legs, which pay out at a combined 20/1.

Football Odds

Result - Real Madrid

I'm expecting one-way traffic at the Bernabeu on Wednesday, with Real Madrid needing to win by a three-goal margin just to take the tie into extra time.

Carlo Ancelotti's side haven't won either of their home games this month, drawing 4-4 with Real Sociedad in the Copa del Rey and suffering a 2-1 defeat in La Liga to Valencia, but the circumstances of those games were very different. La Real lost the first leg of their cup tie at home to Real Madrid and required a victory to take their semi-final to another 30 minutes, successfully doing so (3-4) before Antonio Rudiger put the hosts back in front on aggregate in extra time.

Valencia, meanwhile, were still searching for points in their quest for survival.

Arsenal, on the other hand, would bite your hand off if you offered them a 2-0 defeat right now. A one or two-goal loss would still send them through to the semis on aggregate, and given their already cautious nature, particularly away from home, it's difficult to see the Gunners taking too many risks in Madrid.

Real Madrid vs Arsenal Odds

Of course, the likes of Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli are a danger on the counter-attack if Real Madrid press too high, but while Real Madrid are sure to be peppering David Raya's goal with shots, I don't expect Ancelotti to instruct his players to press too high up and leave themselves completely exposed at the back.

Arsenal deserve great credit for their first leg efforts, and there were chances for the Gunners to go in front before Rice scored the first of two free-kicks in the 58th minute; however, it took a set-piece for Mikel Arteta's charges to take the lead, and they drew both Premier League games either side of that win, despite playing two bottom-half sides, Everton and Brentford.

The north Londoners have only won two of their last six away contests (W2, D3, L1) and are still missing several key players, notably Gabriel Magalhaes and Kai Havertz.

Whether Real Madrid can win the tie is another question, but on the night, I'm sure they can claim victory.

Player Stats - Antonio Rudiger (RMA) 2+ Shots

Backing the home side's players to take multiple shots is looking like the best way to get value here.

Given they start the night three goals down in the tie, I'm expecting efforts from everywhere on Wednesday as Real Madrid frantically try and resurrect their Champions League hopes.

Los Blancos recorded nine attempts in the first leg, and seven of those shots came before Rice's first goal. So, at home, and needing to score at least three times, I'm expecting the hosts to be shooting 20+ times on Tuesday. Kylian Mbappe, Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Jr. and Rodrygo are the obvious candidates to register multiple attempts at goal, but for better value, I'm looking beyond the quartet.

First up, I'm backing 32-year-old centre-back Rudiger to shoot at least twice. The Germany international is averaging 0.7 shots per 90 minutes in this season's Champions League (one p/90 in La Liga), but in his side's last home game in the competition, he let fly twice from distance.

Rudiger has also scored two European goals in 2024/25, both headers from corners, highlighting his danger from set-pieces as well as his penchant for - trying - the spectacular.

Arsenal have a tall team, with the likes of Rice and Mikel Merino a big help to the defenders, but with Gabriel out injured again, Rudiger will fancy his chances of getting on the end of a couple of crosses on Wednesday.

Player Stats - Federico Valverde (RMA) 2+ Shots

I'm also backing Rudiger's teammate, Federico Valverde, to take a couple of pops at goal.

The Uruguay international averaged a shot every 46.3 minutes in last season's Champions League campaign, but this season, it's a shot every 95.5 minutes. The difference can be explained, in part, by the addition of Mbappe to the Real Madrid front line, which has taken away a lot of Valverde's attacking responsibilities, and in turn, increased his defensive load. He's also had to play at right-back on a number of occasions due to the season-ending injury suffered by Dani Carvajal in October.

Valverde may well start at full-back again on Wednesday, but given the game state, he should be pushing forwards more this week, and he's someone that always poses a danger when striking from distance.

He even shot three times from right-back in the first leg of Real Madrid's knockout phase play-off tie at Manchester City in February, with two of his efforts coming from outside the penalty area.

Player Stats - Jurrien Timber (ARS) 4+ Tackles

Jurrien Timber enjoyed a strong first leg up against Vinicius Jr. and the rest of Real Madrid's star-studded attack, making four tackles in his 90-plus minutes on the pitch before being withdrawn in the dying embers for Ben White.

A similar performance will be required on Wednesday to keep the home side's forwards quiet again.

Timber is a defender who can usually be relied upon to lock down even the trickiest of wingers, and Vinicius Jr. certainly falls into that category.

Against Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium in September, where Jeremy Doku started on the left-wing for the Citizens, Timber made three tackles, and against the same opponent at the Emirates in February, where Savinho started instead, he made two.

The last three La Liga matches in which Vinicius Jr. has played 90+ minutes, the opposition's right-back has made at least three tackles, so a repeat of four for Timber in Madrid is not outside the realm of possibility and is a good way to up the odds in this Bet Builder to 20/1.

Offers

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