Real Madrid vs Man City Prediction: Close game in store in Spain

The Champions League is reaching the final stages as big teams are starting to face one another with more frequency and that is certainly the case in this quarter-final tie. The first leg of this one will be broadcast live on TNT Sports 2 on Tuesday with a 19:45 kick-off.

We've asked our Madrid based La Liga betting expert to provide our preview for this one and he's leaning towards the home side as part of his Real Madrid vs Man City Predictions...

Real Madrid and Manchester City meet in the Champions League knockout stage for the third season in a row with the first leg of their Quarter Final tie this Tuesday at the Santiago Bernabéu.

In each of the previous two years, the winner of this duel has gone on to lift the trophy. It’s impossible to rule out a repeat this season with City the defending champions and outright Champions League favourites, up against a Real Madrid side that regularly rises to the challenge on the big European stage, winning the competition a record 14 times.

With five titles in the past decade, Real Madrid have remained the dominant team in the Champions League in the modern era, but this is a Manchester City side that is now finally free from the burden of having failed to win the competition prior to their triumph last season.

Their 4-0 demolition of Los Blancos at the Etihad in the second leg of the 2022/23 Semi Final would have surely erased the fear factor that they might have carried into some previous meetings with the Spanish side, not to mention the demons from their late collapse at the Bernabeu in the 2021/22 Semis when 90th and 91st minute goals from Rodrgyo sparked a miraculous comeback win for Madrid.

For better or worse, both sides have evolved since those recent clashes. While Real Madrid no longer have Karim Benzema to call upon and remain without the injured Thibaut Courtois, so often their saviour during their run to the 2022 Champions League, their record this season is outstanding.

They’ve only lost two of their 42 competitive matches and only one in regulation time with both defeats coming across town against Atlético Madrid.

The Champions League group stage was a stroll for Carlo Ancelotti’s side who won all six fixtures, but they were much less convincing in the Last 16, only edging past RB Leipzig 2-1 on aggregate.

Real Madrid have a slight advantage on their opponents in that they’ve had more than a week off to prepare for this tie. They were comfortable 2-0 victors at home to Athletic Club in their last league game, and unlike City, they are not involved in a tight title race with an eight point advantage on Barcelona at the top of La Liga ensuring this tie alone will be their sole priority over the next nine days.

Pep Guardiola has other distractions and clearly knows his team has a real fight on their hands if they’re to land a fourth straight Premier League title, with fierce competition from Arsenal and Liverpool in a three-horse race. That hasn’t stopped him rotating and resting players over the past week though with an eye on the trip to Madrid.

Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne were afforded the night off as City put four past an under-strength Aston Villa side last Wednesday, with Phil Foden the hat-trick hero. Foden himself was then rested for Saturday’s trip to Selhurst Park as Crystal Palace were dispatched 4-2 with De Bruyne scoring twice.

They take a bit of momentum into this tie as a result, but despite scoring eight goals in two games, there has been enough in the way of defensive cracks to encourage Real Madrid and any neutrals who’ll be tuning in hoping to see an entertaining first leg on Tuesday night.

Team News:

Having played only one match since the recent international break, Real Madrid should be well rested and good to go heading into Tuesday’s game. Their only absentees are Thibaut Courtois and David Alaba who are both some way off fitness following ACL tears earlier in the season.

Eder Militao suffered the same injury back in August and despite initial fears he may miss the entire campaign, he made his return off the bench in Stoppage Time in the most recent league match. He’s very unlikely to start the first leg though with Nacho expected to fill in once more.

There are more selection issues for Pep Guardiola to contend with, particularly at the back. Kyle Walker and Nathan Ake are both huge doubts, while Josko Gvardiol picked up a knock against Palace, raising question marks about his participation in this match in a fresh defensive blow.

In better news for the defending English and European champions, goalkeeper Ederson was fit enough to take his place on the bench at Selhurst Park. Guardiola must decide whether or not he’s ready to start at the Bernabeu or whether to stick with Stefan Ortega.

Real Madrid vs Man City Odds:

Manchester City are the slight favourites in the first leg at 7/5 with Real Madrid priced at 9/5 while the Draw is available at 5/2.

It’s a tie that certainly promises to deliver goals and you can back Over 2.5 Goals in the first leg at 4/6 while Over 3.5 Goals is on offer at 7/4. Both Teams to Score is priced at 4/7.

For bigger returns, you can combine those bets with a Match Result pick. Real Madrid and Over 2.5 Goals is on offer at 3/1 while you can back Manchester City and Both Teams to Score at 3/1.

Unsurprisingly, City goal machine Erling Haaland is the 7/2 favourite to score first while you can back the Norwegian to score anytime at 5/4. If you fancy Jude Bellingham to do the damage for Real Madrid against English opposition, he’s on offer at 11/2 to score first and 9/5 to score anytime.

There are also some #PickYourPunt Builder Boosts available for this one, with odds of 6/1 looking good for Both Teams to have 5+ Shots on Target and Both Teams Over 19.5 Booking Points.

Bet 1 - Real Madrid Draw No Bet @ Evens

Historically, home advantage has had a big role to play whenever Real Madrid and Manchester City have met in recent years. While the visitors may be the slight favourites on the night, the

onus will be on the home team to force the running and target a first leg advantage, as it’d be hard to see Los Blancos progressing next week without a lead to take to England.

City have lost on three of their previous five visits to the Bernabeu and in some respects, Kyle Walker is perhaps the one player they really couldn’t do without for this game given Real Madrid’s strength on the left of their attack with Vinícius Júnior.

The Brazilian is far from the only weapon Real Madrid have at their disposal though and on another huge European night in the Spanish capital, I’m going with Real Madrid Draw No Bet at Evens.

Bet 2 - Both Teams to Score, Phil Foden 1+ Shots & Vinícius Júnior 1+ Shots @ 4/5

While big games don’t always live up to the hype, this feels like a match that will surely deliver goals with both managers expected to be in a position to pick all of their strongest midfield and attacking options.

There are potential defensive cracks that both sides will feel they can exploit. Real Madrid know this is a game they really need to win to stand a realistic shot of progressing, but it’s by no means in City’s nature to sit back and play for a draw so this could potentially develop into something special.

I can certainly see goals at each end and in-form duo Vinícius Júnior and Phil Foden are likely to feature prominently in the game so I’m using the #PickYourPunt builder to back Both Teams to Score, Phil Foden 1+ Shots and Vinícius Júnior 1+ Shots at 4/5.

Mark Sochon primarily covers La Liga for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his and the rest of our Football Betting Tips from the team on our main Football page.