Real Madrid vs Granada Prediction: Plenty of goals expected in this one

 | December 01 | 

6 mins read

real madrid santiago bernabeu scaled

Real Madrid are back in La Liga action on Saturday teatime following their 4-2 victory over Napoli in the Champions League in the week.

Our man in Spain Mark Sochon is here with his in-depth preview with a couple of betting tips for the natch included for good measure...

Real Madrid vs Granada Betting Tips:

  • Back over 3.5 Goals @ 5/6
  • Back Real Madrid to win & Both Teams to Score @ 6/4

Real Madrid have the opportunity to open up a seven point advantage on rivals Barcelona and Atletico Madrid, who meet later this weekend, when they welcome struggling Granada to the Santiago Bernabeu on Saturday.

It’s 17:30 kick-off with all the action from Madrid live on Viaplay as Jude Bellingham bids to continue his record-breaking start to life in the Spanish capital.

The English midfielder became the first ever Real Madrid player to score in their first four Champions League appearances for the club when he netted against Napoli in midweek. Los Blancos sealed top spot in the group with a 4-2 win.

On the surface, this is another game where Bellingham and co have every chance of getting in amongst the goals. It’s 1st vs 19th in the league table while it’s also La Liga’s second highest scorers against its second worst defence.

Despite their considerable selection issues, Real Madrid are still scoring freely and winning matches with 15 scored in their last four outings in all competitions. They could have scored more against Napoli on Wednesday with Joselu guilty of missing a couple of sitters before finally adding his team’s fourth goal in Stoppage Time.

As for Granada, promoted as champions of the 2022/23 Segunda Division, it has been a really tough season so far. Defensively, it has been a disaster with 2.36 goals per game conceded on average and that’s the main reason they have only managed to register one victory and just seven points from their opening 14 games.

One thing punters should be aware of, is that this will be Granada’s first game under new management. Promotion winning boss Paco Lopez was sacked after a dismal 3-1 defeat against fellow new boys Alaves last time out with Alexander Medina taking over this week.

If you’re wondering who that is, you’re not alone. Medina arrives as something of an unknown name in Spain having only previously managed in South America. His recent record is not particularly inspiring either with the Uruguayan sacked by Brazilian club Internacional in April 2022 before taking charge of Velez Sarsfield in Argentina where he won just 11 of his 40 matches.

As starts go, this couldn’t be any tougher and it feels like something of a free hit for the visitors whose ultimate survival or relegation will not be determined by the outcome of this game.

Team News:

Carlo Ancelotti confirmed in his pre-match press conference on Friday that, despite a minor ankle issue, Jude Bellingham will be fit for this game. He also confirmed that Andriy Lunin will get another go in goal despite the return to fitness of Kepa.

Los Blancos are still missing seven players to injury though with Thibaut Courtois, Eder Militao, Vinicius Junior, Luka Modric, Eduardo Camavinga, Aurelien Tchouameni and Arda Guler on the sidelines.

Granada meanwhile have some central defensive injuries which only compound the issues they’ve been experiencing at the back. Jesus Vallejo is unfit to face his parent club while fellow centre-back Miguel Angel Rubio is also out. Midfielder Gonzalo Villar will also miss the trip to the Spanish capital with an injury.

Changes to their system and personnel are likely under new management and we may see a more conservative Granada than was the case under Paco Lopez whose attacking approach failed to deliver results.

Real Madrid vs Granada Odds:

You’ll struggle to find a clearer home banker in Europe this weekend than this match with Real Madrid as short as 1/7 for the win. The draw is 13/2 while you can back Granada to win at a huge 16/1 if you fancy what would be a massive upset.

The three most likely candidates for a goal are unsurprisingly all home players. Jude Bellingham is 5/6 to score anytime which still feels like it could be worth a punt with the Englishman up against one of the worst teams in the league, having scored 15 goals in 16 games in all competitions for his new club.

With Vincius Junior sidelined, it also seems fairly certain that Joselu and Rodrygo will form the front two once more for Los Blancos. After a slow start to the campaign, the young Brazilian has hit form with six goals in his last four outings and you can back Rodrygo to score anytime at 19/20 while Joselu is 4/5 to find the net at some point in this one.

It’s the kind of fixture where the Handicap markets are also worth a look. Real Madrid -2 Handicap is available at 23/20 while you can back Granada +2 Handicap if you fancy the visitors to compete better under their new boss.

Bet 1 - Over 3.5 Goals @ 5/6

This feels like a game that should serve up goals. While we may see Granada play with a bit more caution following the managerial change, they don’t have the feel of a team that is anywhere near good enough to just park the bus and play for a point, particularly given their defensive injury issues.

There have been 18 goals in total in Real Madrid’s last four fixtures in all competitions while 57% of Granada’s league games have produced four or more goals. Therefore backing Over 3.5 Goals at 5/6 could be worth a punt here.

Bet 2 - Real Madrid & Both Teams to Score @ 6/4

It’d be an enormous surprise if Real Madrid didn’t win this game but it’s not too hard to make a case for Granada getting on the scoresheet at some point. In winger Bryan Zaragoza, they have one of the most explosive players in La Liga and he could be a real threat on the break. He also appears to have an eye for the big occasion after scoring a brilliant brace against Barcelona earlier this term.

Despite being in the relegation zone, only seven teams have scored more goals in La Liga this term than Granada. 71% of their games have seen both teams score and I like the look of Real Madrid and Both Teams to Score at 6/4 here.

There will be plenty of interest in this game from Madrid but we have plenty of Football Betting Tips across various leagues all weekend here on the Betfred Insights website...

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