Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo Betting Preview: Real to win low-scorer

 | March 09 | 

7 mins read

mack sochon la liga tips

Barcelona inched their way to victory on Friday evening and our Spanish Football expert Mark Sochon correctly put up that the second-half would be the higher scoring at Evens.

For his Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo Betting Preview, he picks out two selections, both at Even-money or better, including a very intriguing shots double...

Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo Betting Tips

  • Real Madrid & Under 3.5 Goals @ 11/10
  • Vinicius Junior 1+ Shots on Target & Brahim Diaz 1+ Shots on Target @ Evens

Real Madrid aim to take another step towards the Spanish title on Sunday when they welcome Celta Vigo to the Santiago Bernabeu. In the opposite dugout will be Rafa Benitez who makes his first visit to the famous old stadium since his acrimonious departure in January 2016.

That was an important moment in Real Madrid’s recent history as it paved the way for European success under his replacement Zinedine Zidane. It’s likely to be a frosty welcome for Benitez who was victorious on his last trip to the Bernabeu as a visiting manager which was way back in 2009 with Liverpool.

Judging by their performance in midweek, this might not be a bad time to be catching Real Madrid. Carlo Ancelotti opted for a 4-3-3 against RB Leipzig in the Champions League with Jude Bellingham operating as a false nine. The plan was not a success though with the Bundesliga side having the better of the game, having done likewise in the 1st Leg.

As is so often the case with Real Madrid in Europe though, they still found a way to win. Vinicius Junior was fortunate to still be on the pitch having grabbed an opponent by the throat moments earlier, but he latched onto a through ball from Bellingham to fire Real Madrid into a 2-0 aggregate lead midway through the Second Half. There was still time for a late Leipzig rally though with Willi Orban scoring and Dani Olmo hitting the crossbar in Stoppage Time.

Real Madrid have struggled to find their best level since hammering title rivals Girona 4-0 in February. It’s three draws and two 1-0 wins since then, although they were left fuming at Mestalla last weekend when the referee’s Full Time whistle came only seconds before Jude Bellingham headed home a goal that would have completed a 3-2 comeback victory.

It’s safe to say the Real Madrid players were not thrilled with that decision. Referee Jesus Gil Manzano was surrounded and he ended up dishing out a red card to Bellingham, who will now somewhat harshly serve a two game suspension for his choice of language in the aftermath of the incident.

That’s a potential problem for Real Madrid, although they’ll still expect to have enough to beat Celta Vigo who are down in 17th in the table. It has been a poor season for the Galicians and there have been several points when it has looked like Benitez may lose his job, although he has picked up some timely wins to ease the pressure on himself and ensure Celta maintain an advantage on the relegation zone.

That was the case again last time out. At home to rock bottom and winless Almeria, it was billed as a “must win” game for Benitez. Celta toiled for more than an hour, before finally finding a breakthrough against ten men in the 73rd minute with Oscar Mingueza unleashing a long range screamer to seal a 1-0 victory.

Celta have only won five games all season, but there have been times when they’ve played reasonably well but have paid the price for missed opportunities or individual errors at the back. They’ve work to do to ensure they are playing top flight football next season, but with a five point advantage on the relegation zone heading into this weekend, they’re not under immediate pressure to get a result here.

Team News:

With Bellingham suspended, Real Madrid are expected to bring Brahim Diaz into the side as the most advanced player in a four-man midfield. Otherwise, there are no new selection issues for Real Madrid with long-term injury absentees Thibaut Courtois, Eder Militao and David Alaba the only other sidelined players.

Carlo Ancelotti could opt to freshen things up following a poor midweek display though. Rodrygo will surely return in attack, while Luka Modric could potentially rotate in for Toni Kroos in midfield.

As for Celta, they’re likely to recall Iago Aspas in attack after the veteran forward served a suspension last time out. The Galician side are missing Renato Tapia, Carlos Dotor, Joseph Aidoo and Mihailo Ristic to injury while young midfielder Williot Swedberg is a doubt.

Benitez may consider a switch to a back five given the difficulty of this fixture and he has frequently changed his system this term, although not always with successful results.

Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo Odds:

Real Madrid head into the game as the 2/7 favourites with the Draw priced at 9/2 while Celta Vigo are on offer at long odds of 10/1 to record a surprise win at the Bernabeu.

Celta’s recent away games have tended to produce a few goals but punters will need to decide whether or not Benitez will look to park the bus here. You can back Both Teams to Score at 10/11 and Over 3.5 Goals at 11/8 if you see this being relatively open.

However if you fancy a tighter game, Both Teams to Score - No is priced at 4/5 while you can back Under 2.5 Goals at 11/8. Draw or Celta Vigo Double Chance is on offer at 5/2.

With no Bellingham, Real Madrid’s Brazilian strikeforce is the most likely source of a goal. You can back in-form Vinicius Junior to score first at 7/2 and anytime at Evens. Meanwhile, Rodrygo is priced at 4/1 to score first and 6/5 to score anytime.

Celta’s top scorer is Jorgen Strand Larsen who is 10/1 to score first and 3/1 to score anytime.

Bet 1 - Real Madrid & Under 3.5 Goals @ 11/10

Real Madrid have only scored six goals in their last five games in all competitions and with their top scorer unavailable once more, this isn’t a fixture that they’ll necessarily run away with. Celta are a bit more competitive than their league position suggests and they gave Real Madrid a tough match earlier in the season at Balaidos with Bellingham scoring the only goal late on in a 1-0 win.

Over the course of 90 minutes, Real Madrid should still find a way to break through at least once and they have only dropped four home points all season, despite not always producing sparkling football. As a result, I’m backing Real Madrid and Under 3.5 Goals at 11/10.

Bet 2 - Vinicius Junior 1+ Shots on Target & Brahim Diaz 1+ Shots on Target @ Evens

There is no doubt about who the main danger man is for Real Madrid right now. Vinícius Júnior scored both of their goals in the draw at Mestalla last weekend and was again their only goalscorer in midweek against RB Leipzig. Los Blancos will surely look to get him on the ball as much as possible here, but he ought to get good support from Brahim Diaz.

The 24-year-old is having a really impressive season despite effectively operating as back-up to Bellingham. He has still managed eight goals in all competitions, including some memorable strikes and he’s not afraid to have a go when a shooting opportunity presents itself.

Given that, I’m using the #PickYourPunt builder to back Vinicius Junior 1+ Shots on Target and Brahim Diaz 1+ Shots on Target at Evens.

You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...

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