Reading vs Burnley Prediction: Clarets to keep up good form

Burnley’s promotion charge is going well, and they secured a major win at the weekend as they defeated Lancashire rivals Blackburn Rovers 1-0 at Ewood Park. At full time, goalscorer Zian Flemming celebrated by placing his shirt over Blackburn’s corner flag and waving it in front of the away end. One of the defining images of the EFL season.

Scott Parker’s side are well in the hunt for the title, but now they must turn their attention to the FA Cup when they travel to take on League 1 Reading, who are currently in the play-offs. This one kicks off  at 15:00 on Saturday, and below you can find my Reading vs Burnley predictions. 

Team News

With both teams involved in races for promotion this season, rotation is likely for this cup clash. Burnley have the ability to rotate their entire XI, while the same perhaps can’t be said of their hosts in this one. 

Experienced goalkeeper David Button should get a game here, while youngsters Jayden Wareham and Ashqar Ahmed should also be given starts if Noel Hunt chooses to rotate. Louie Holzman and Tyler Sackey have also been featured in the matchday squad recently and could be given starts, as Reading rely on several youngsters this term. Charlie Savage, son of Robbie, should continue in midfield, while Harlee Dean could offer his experience once again at centre-back. 

I’d expect 11 changes from Parker heading into this tie. Ashley Barnes could make his first start since rejoining the club up top, while Lyle Foster is also in contention. Lucas Pires should return at left-back, Vaclav Hladky will play in goal and Tommy McDermott could be given a start in midfield. 

Luca Koleosho and Joe Worrall should also come into the team having been left on the bench for the derby day win over Rovers. Parker has bigger fish to fry this season, and this is a great chance to rest his first XI after a hectic festive period. 

Reading vs Burnley Odds

Reading are a big price, at 11/2 to win this game on home soil which could be good value given Hunt has seen his side go unbeaten in their last four outings. Burnley are 1/2 for the win in 90 minutes, giving them an implied win probability of 67%, while a draw can be backed at 3/1. 

Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 4/5, while BTTS is available at 10/11, but we should be wary of both of those prices given Burnley’s incredible defensive record this term. They are 21/20 to keep yet another clean sheet, which would be their fifth in a row. 

Burnley to win to nil @ 11/8

Burnley have the best defence in the EFL, having conceded just nine goals in 26 league matches so far in the second tier. It’s the sole reason that they are challenging for the title this season, and with James Trafford and Maxime Esteve, along with other top defenders, they should be able to break the record for the fewest goals conceded - which currently stands at 30. 

Although we are expecting loads of changes from Parker, the strength of Burnley’s squad means that they should be able to win this game with relative ease. They had 35+ first-team players in August, and the majority of them remain at the club and will be desperate for minutes. Burnley’s second-string should be able to win this game fairly comfortably, against a Reading side lacking the same level of quality and depth in their squad. 

Under 10.5 corners @ 8/11 

Burnley didn’t manage a single corner against Blackburn, despite winning the match. Even in games they dominate, they don’t tend to score loads of goals or have loads of chances, which means that corners come at a premium. Meanwhile, Reading only had five in their last game and are likely to be without the ball for the majority of this tie. 

Burnley have averaged 9.16 total corners per match this season, and we can back under 10.5 to come in once again, against lower league opposition, at 8/11. I think it’s a sensible angle to take, as we search for value from this fixture. 

Offers

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