RB Leipzig vs Aston Villa Bet Builder Tips: Back both Benjamin’s in 15/2 shot

After losing their first five Uefa Champions League games this season, RB Leipzig know they must win their final three league phase matches and rely on other results to stand any chance of finishing in the top 24 and securing a place in next year's play-offs. Aston Villa, meanwhile, have stumbled slightly since opening up with three victories, taking just one point from the last six available, but could still finish in the top eight and avoid the play-offs.

Below are my RB Leipzig vs. Aston Villa Bet Builder tips for Tuesday's meeting between the two teams at Red Bull Arena (20:00, Amazon Prime Video).

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RB Leipzig vs Aston Villa Odds

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Team Stats - RB Leipzig Over 13.5 Shots

Few could have foreseen how poorly Leipzig would perform in this season's new-look league phase format following their showing in the previous campaign's competition.

In 2023/24, Die Roten Bullen finished second in their Champions League group, beating both Red Star Belgrade and Young Boys home and away and only dropping points to Premier League champions Manchester City, who won all six of their games to top Group G. Then, in the last 16, the Germans were only edged out 2-1 on aggregate by eventual winners Real Madrid.

This season, however, has been disastrous as they have suffered away losses to Atletico Madrid (2-1), Celtic (3-1) and Inter Milan (1-0) and home defeats to Juventus (2-3) and Liverpool (0-1). Clearly, they now need a miracle to keep themselves in European competition heading into February and beyond with 24th-placed Real Madrid currently six points ahead with just three games remaining.

As a result, I expect Leipzig to leave everything on the table this Tuesday as they host English outfit Aston Villa at Red Bull Arena, meaning shots aplenty. Marco Rose's side have only recorded over 13.5 shots on one occasion in this season's Champions League so far but that was in one of their two home matches against Juventus on October 2 when they shot 24 times, scoring twice. In their other home game, the 0-1 defeat to Liverpool, the Bundesliga side registered 13 attempts, falling just one shot short of the first selection in Tuesday's Bet Builder.

Villa, meanwhile, have only conceded over 13.5 shots once in Europe this term - in the October 2 win over Bayern Munich (1-0) at Villa Park where Leipzig's fellow Germans shot 17 times. However, Club Brugge recorded 13 shots in their 1-0 victory over the Villans on November 6 - Villa's last UCL away game - while both Young Boys and Bologna have managed 12 attempts against them, despite losing 0-3 and 2-0, respectively.

Leipzig were on a six-match winless run heading into December but after easing to a 3-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt in the DFB-Pokal and beating Holstein Kiel (0-2) in the Bundesliga on Saturday their tails should be up somewhat and I can see them giving it a good go on Tuesday.

Player Stats - Benjamin Henrichs (RBL) 1+ Shots

Of the minimum 14 efforts I expect Leipzig to rack up against Villa, I'm backing left-back Benjamin Henrichs to be responsible for at least one of them having tried his luck in three of his four Champions League starts this season.

The 27-year-old shot once away to Atletico, twice at home to Liverpool, and once last time out away to Inter, only failing to register a shot away to Celtic (Henrichs also failed to register an attempt at home to Juventus after coming on as a half-time substitute).

Henrichs isn't a prolific goalscorer by any means but he's a pretty consistent shooter, averaging 0.8 shots per game in last season's competition (six appearances, all starts). He managed one in five of his six matches, including home and away to Real Madrid, and in the only game in which he didn't shoot at the opposition's goal, he did at his own, putting through Leipzig's net against Red Star.

Meanwhile, in this season's Bundesliga, the Germany international is averaging 0.7 shots per game (13 appearances, eight starts).

Player Stats - Benjamin Sesko (RBL) 1+ Shots on Target

Slovenian striker Benjamin Sesko has been a bright spark in an otherwise gloomy European campaign so far for Leipzig. The 21-year-old has scored three times in five Champions League appearances (four starts) this term, opening the scoring against Atletico in Madrid before bagging a brace at home to Juventus, although he is now goalless in his last three league phase matches.

Sesko didn't start last time out against Inter but in his previous two starts registered two shots on target at home to Liverpool and one away to Celtic in Glasgow, taking his shots on target per game average to 1.4 (he managed one v Atletico and three v Inter).

The former Red Bull Salzburg centre-forward has recorded a shot on target in his last two Bundesliga outings, including a couple in Saturday's victory at Kiel where he opened the scoring in the 27th minute.

Player Stats - Christoph Baumgartner (RBL) 2+ Fouls

The final Leipzig player in this Bet Builder is Austria international Christoph Baumgartner, who has been putting himself about in domestic and European competition. Baumgartner is averaging 1.4 fouls per game (five appearances, three starts) in both the 2024/25 Champions League, conceding five free-kicks last time out against Inter, and Bundesliga (13 appearances, seven starts). His latest appearance in the German top flight, away to Kiel on the weekend, saw him commit four fouls, which follows on from the three, two and four he had made in his three previous Bundesliga games against Wolfsburg, Hoffenheim and Borussia Monchengladbach, respectively.

The 25-year-old, who predominantly plays from the right-hand side of Leipzig's midfield, could be in close contact with Villa left-back Lucas Digne and midfielder John McGinn, who were each fouled twice against Juventus in their last European appearance.

Player Stats - Lucas Digne (AVL) 2+ Tackles

Talking of Digne, I'm concluding this Bet Builder by backing the Frenchman to make at least two tackles on Tuesday, something he has managed in his last two league phase matches against Juventus and Bayern (two in each). He also made one tackle against Young Boys, meaning he is averaging 1.7 tackles per game in this seasons' Champions League, only slightly down on the two he is averaging in the Premier League.

The 31-year-old didn't start Villa's 1-0 win over Southampton at Villa Park on Saturday, only coming on as a 59th-minute substitute for Ian Maatsen, so I'm fully expecting him to begin Tuesday's game, which should help to land this selection.

Offers

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