Qarabag vs Ludogorets Prediction: Ludogorets likely to falter in Baku

Champions League qualifying continues on Tuesday and as we enter the third round, the ties become more tense. Neither Qarabag nor Ludogorets have made the Champions League group stage since their maiden appearance, in 2017/18 and 2014/15 respectively, so both will be keen to progress in this tie and reach the play-off round.  

The hosts beat Lincoln Red Imps 7-0 on aggregate in the second round of qualifying, while Ludogorets recorded a narrow 2-1 victory over their two legs with Dinamo Minsk. The two will meet for their first leg at the Tofiq Bahramov Stadium in Baku, with kick-off scheduled for 5pm BST.  

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The hosts suffered no injury setbacks over the weekend, meaning the likes of last week's hat-trick hero Juninho, experienced winger Abdellah Zouhir and former Lyon man Yassine Benzia should all start once more.  

Ludogorets also have no injuries but there is a decision to be made up front. Rwan Seco started both legs against Dinamo Minsk but could lose his place as Kwadwo Duah, who scored for Switzerland at Euro 2024, is back and will be pushing for a start.  

Qarabag vs Ludogorets Odds

Qarabag are 7/10 favourites for this clash, with the draw available at 5/2 and Ludogorets priced up at 18/5.  

The visitors' lack of goals on their travels of late makes both teams to score a risky bet, but it can be backed at 5/6, with over 2.5 goals a similar price of 10/11.  

Juninho is the favourite to open the scoring at 4/1, with his teammates Nariman Akhundzade and Maharramov Qurban also prominent at 5/1. Duah is Ludogorets' best first scorer hope according to the market at 8/1. 

Qarabag to win @ 7/10 

While Ludogorets overcame tougher opposition to reach this round than Qarabag, it is Tuesday's hosts who should be backed to win this match.  

The Azeri side are unbeaten through their last nine home matches and while they have won seven times in that run, it is actually a draw in the sequence which suggests they have enough to win on Tuesday.  

Bayer Leverkusen were arguably the most impressive side in Europe last season, going unbeaten on their way to winning the Bundesliga while also winning the DFB Pokal and making the Europa League final.  

En route to reaching the latter final, though, they were held to a 2-2 draw in Baku by Qarabag. Leverkusen then only narrowly won the second leg 3-2, highlighting the Horsemen's aptitude for the biggest stage.  

Ludogorets have lost four away matches in a row, failing to score in each of those defeats, and could be heading into next week's second leg with a lead to chase.  

Juninho first goalscorer @ 4/1 

Sometimes the obvious choice is the best, and it is hard to look past Juninho in the first goalscorer market for this clash.  

The Brazilian netted the opener in Qarabag's first leg against the Red Imps in the previous round before scoring the first three goals of the game in their 5-0 rout in the reverse leg, bagging a sensational hat-trick in Baku.  

Juninho scored an impressive 20 goals in 35 league games last term and a respectable six in 14 Europa League matches too. He is a proven goalscorer and could get his side off to the perfect start for the third Champions League game in a row.  

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