Premier League Stats: Key Stats from Saturday’s Matches on 18 April

There are key games in the relegation battle and the race for European places on Saturday, with Spurs in desperate need of three points when Brighton visit and third taking on sixth as Chelsea host Man Utd.

Dan Thomas is here with the key numbers and betting angles for all five games on Saturday as our usual weekly column has been split in two. The games on Sunday and Monday to come later on this weekend...

*You can check out all of our Premier League Odds & Betting Markets over on betfred.com

Premier League Stats & Best Bets Saturday's Matches on week 33.

• Brentford vs Fulham
• Saturday, 12:30
• Live on TNT Sports

Key stat: Since the turn of the year, no side has scored fewer first half goals than Fulham, while Brentford have drawn each of their last four matches.

Best bet: Brentford remain in the hunt for the European places, sitting just a point off Chelsea in sixth, but they need to start turning draws into wins and the visit of poor travellers Fulham (four wins in 16 away trips this season) looks like a great chance for maximum points. But with the Bees chalked up as an 11/10 chance, we’ll take the bigger odds available on a first half draw – expect Marco Silva to set up defensively here and it could take time for the hosts to make a breakthrough.

• Leeds United vs Wolves
• Saturday, 15:00

Key stat: Leeds have failed to score in four of their last five at Elland Road, while Wolves haven’t found the net in 16 of the Premier League games this season

Best bet: A fantastic win over old foes Manchester United at Old Trafford went a long way to guaranteeing safety for Leeds – they’re now six points clear of the relegation zone - but recent home form has been a concern. Wolves’ mini-revival came to a shuddering halt at West Ham and Rob Edwards will be looking for a much tighter defensive display this weekend. The 10/11 on Under 2.5 Goals looks a solid play.

• Newcastle United vs Bournemouth
• Saturday, 15:00

Key stat: Newcastle have lost four of their last five home games – and seven of their last 10 overall – while Bournemouth are unbeaten in 12, their longest undefeated run in the Premier League.

Best bet: Eddie Howe’s future as Newcastle manager remains in serious doubt with the Magpies languishing in 14^th place and seemingly just waiting for the season to finish. They face a confident Bournemouth outfit, who won this fixture 4-1 this season and come off the back of a superb victory at the Emirates. I was surprised to see Andoni Iraola’s men priced up at 13/5, so that’s the play here.

• Tottenham vs Brighton
• Saturday, 17:30
• Live on Sky Sports

Key stat: Brighton have won five of their last six Premier League matches, while Tottenham have yet to pick up maximum points in 2026

Best bet: Another manager, but same old Spurs at Sunderland last week – ineffectual in front of goal and prone to mistakes at the back. There were perhaps slight improvements defensively but they need far more with only six games remaining. So the visit of an on-fire Brighton, who won this fixture 4-1 last season, would not have been top of Roberto de Zerbi’s wishlist. With Cristian Romero now out for the season, Spurs are missing one of their few progressive passers and it’s hard to see them getting out of this rut. We’ll back the Seagulls to continue their winning run.

• Chelsea vs Manchester United
• Saturday, 20:00
• Live on Sky Sports

Key stat: Chelsea vs Manchester United is the most drawn fixture in Premier League history (27), with just seven of these being goalless.

Best bet: The Liam Rosenior era could well be a short one, with Chelsea ending the campaign in stuttering fashion – six defeats in their last nine in all competitions – and running the risk of missing European qualification. But Manchester United have only won one of the last four in the league and one of the last 12 at Stamford Bridge, so the Blues should have enough in the tank to avoid defeat. We’ll back a stalemate here with both sides scoring.

Dan Thomas Premier League Stats P&L 2025/26:

• Stakes: 310
• Returns: 242.66
• Profit: -67.34

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