Premier League Stats: Key Stats & Suggested Bet for Every Match in Gameweek 18

The festive Premier League calendar kicks off on Boxing Day at Old Trafford with Eddie Howe's Newcastle in town, with other standout fixtures over the weekend including on-fire Aston Villa visiting Chelsea and Sunderland defending their unbeaten home record against Leeds. 

Dan Thomas dons his lucky Santa hit and delves into his bag of stats to pick out the best betting angles for gameweek 18… 

*You can check out all of our Premier League Odds & Betting Markets over on betfred.com

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Premier League Stats & Best Bets for Week 18

• Manchester United vs Newcastle United 
• Friday, 20:00 
• Live on Sky Sports 

Key stat: There have been at least three goals scored in eight of Manchester United's last 10 games, while over 2.5 goals has landed in nine of Newcastle's last 10. 

Best bet: Only one Premier League match on Boxing Day but it should be a Christmas cracker, with both sides in decent scoring form - and looking porous at the back. Manchester United played well at Aston Villa at the weekend, but came away empty-handed, while Newcastle threw away a two-goal lead against Chelsea. With both teams to score and under 2.5 goals both at heavy odds-on prices, we'll push the boat out and combine BTTS with Over 3.5 goals. After all, over 7.5 was a winning bet in United's last home game! 

• Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City 
• Saturday, 12:30 
• Live on TNT Sports 

Key stat: Rayan Cherki has picked up six assists in 12 Premier League appearances this season, including four in his last 262 minutes of top flight action. 

Best bet: It wasn't an ideal start to life at City for Rayan Cherki with a thigh injury picked up in August keeping him out of the side for two months, but the former Lyon man has really hit his stride in recent weeks and has already scored four and assisted seven in his 18 appearances in all competitions. Pep Guardiola's men have an opportunity to put real pressure on Arsenal by winning this early kick-off and we'll back the Frenchman to add another assist to his tally. 

• Arsenal vs Brighton 
• Saturday, 15:00 

Key stat: Arsenal have won seven of their eight home league games this season, drawing the other one, but only two of these have seen more than four goals.  

Best bet: Arsenal negotiated a tricky test at Everton last weekend in professional fashion, scoring a penalty and then restricting the Toffees to very few chances. This has been the modus operandi for Mikel Arteta's side for much of the season and another low-scoring victory looks on the cards against a Brighton side who have only scored one in their last three. The Gunners looked a little nervy against Wolves last time out at the Emirates and with Man City breathing down their necks, they are unlikely to be in free-scoring form. We'll back the hosts to win and under 3.5 goals at an odds-against price. 

• Brentford vs Bournemouth 
• Saturday, 15:00 

Key stat: Bournemouth have not won in eight matches and have lost four of their last seven on the road, while Brentford have won five of their eight home matches, losing just one.  

Best bet: Perhaps one of the lowkey surprises of the season so far has been the underperformance of Bournemouth, who are languishing in 14th having only picked up five wins. They looked more like their old selves at Old Trafford in that amazing 4-4 but the disappointing home draw with struggling Burnley highlighted their inability to hold onto a lead. One thing you are guaranteed in Cherries' away games is goals - 30 in their last five on the road. With Brentford continuing to look very strong at home, we'll back the Bees to win and over 2.5 goals at bigger than 2/1. 

• Burnley vs Everton 
• Saturday, 15:00 

Key stat: Everton's past seven away games have all seen fewer than three goals, while under 2.5 goals has landed in seven of Burnley's eight home matches. 

Best bet: Burnley finally managed to stop the losing rot by salvaging a late point at Bournemouth last time out but they remain seven points from safety and are really struggling to score at home, with just seven goals (the same as Wolves). Everton have lost their last two, but they were against Arsenal and Chelsea, and their previous two on the road saw excellent wins over Bournemouth and Man Utd. We'll back a low-scoring win for the Toffees here.  

• Liverpool vs Wolves 
• Saturday, 15:00 

Key stat: Hugo Ekitike has scored in each of his last three league appearances (five goals) and could be the first Liverpool player other than Mohamed Salah to score in four consecutive outings in the Premier League since Sadio Mané in February 2019.   

Best bet: Liverpool were pretty fortunate in winning at Spurs last time out but the game saw Hugo Ekitike on the scoresheet again and the Frenchman has really come into his stride in recent weeks. With Alexander Isak now sidelined for an extended period, Ekitike will be the main man for the Reds and he can find the net again against the worst team in the league. We can boost the price to 3/1 by adding the home win and under 3.5 goals - Wolves were only edged out by both Aston Villa and Arsenal in Rob Edwards' two games on the road so far.  

To create this bet - please go to the Bet Builder tab on our Liverpool vs Wolves Odds page

• West Ham United vs Fulham 
• Saturday, 15:00 

Key stat: Fulham have won their last two away Premier League matches, as many as in their previous 12 combined, while West Ham have been the second worst home team in the league this season, losing six of eight at the London Stadium. 

Best bet: Since the heady days of early November when they recorded successive victories, West Ham have gone six games without a win and are now in a real relegation fight, sitting five points off safety. Fulham remain inconsistent but a hard-fought win over Nottingham Forest on Monday helped them climb up to 13th and they can avoid defeat here. We'll add over 2.5 goals to the Double Chance to take us to 2/1 - West Ham's eight home matches have seen 30 goals scored. 

• Chelsea vs Aston Villa 
• Saturday, 17:30 
• Live on Sky Sports 

Key stat: Aston Villa's Morgan Rogers has been directly involved in more Premier League goals than any other English player this season (10 - seven goals, three assists) 

Best bet: Aston Villa made it 10 wins on the bounce with an excellent win over Man Utd, inspired by the in-form Morgan Rogers who scored his second brace in a row. Unai Emery's men look overpriced at just under evens to avoid defeat at inconsistent Chelsea (two wins, two draws, two defeats across the last six) and we'll double that with another Morgan strike to give us a very nice price of 4/1.  

To create this bet - please go to the Bet Builder tab on our Chelsea vs Aston Villa Odds page

• Sunderland vs Leeds United 
• Sunday, 14:00 
• Live on Sky Sports 

Key stat: Sunderland remain one of only two unbeaten home teams this season, alongside Arsenal, while only Wolves have a worse away record than Leeds, who have picked up just one win on the road. 

Best bet: The pressure on Leeds manager Daniel Farke has eased considerably after a four-match unbeaten run that has included big wins over Chelsea and Crystal Palace but they face a tough test at the Stadium of Light, where fans will still be buzzing in the afterglow of derby victory over Newcastle last time out at home. We are getting a very good price on a home win here, no doubt inflated by Sunderland's AFCON absences, but they held Brighton last weekend without their six African players and we'll back a Black Cats victory. 

• Crystal Palace vs Tottenham  
• Sunday, 16:30 
• Live on Sky Sports 

Key stat: When facing opponents starting the day above them in the table, Tottenham have only won one of their last 19 away league London derbies, but Crystal Palace are winless in four at home in all competitions. 

Best bet: A spirited last few minutes with nine men against Liverpool partly papered over the cracks of what was another uninspiring attacking performance from Tottenham and Thomas Frank needs a big January transfer window to rescue the season. Spurs face a tough test against a Palace side that did the double over them last season, but tiredness and a ridiculously packed schedule appear to be catching up with Oliver Glasner's men, who were hammered 4-1 at Leeds last time out. With neither side in good form, we'll take a chance on the draw here. 

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Dan Thomas Premier League Stats P&L 2025/26:

• Stakes: 160
• Returns: 117.06
• Profit: -42.94

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