Manchester City vs Burnley Prediction: Haaland, inevitably?

Manchester City vs Burnley - otherwise known as the James Trafford derby - takes place on Saturday afternoon as the Clarets travel to the Etihad for a 15:00 kick-off. The Citizens conceded late at Arsenal to draw 1-1, while Burnley drew 1-1 with Nottingham Forest to pick up another point. 

Below you can find my Manchester City vs Burnley predictions as we search for a winner.

Team News 

Guardiola got a hefty dose of criticism for his defensive approach at the end of the Arsenal game, but he will revert to a more attacking line-up for this home test. Erling Haaland is in unstoppable form this season and will lead the line, with Omar Marmoush still out injured.

Rayan Ait-Nouri, Mateo Kovacic, Rayan Cherki and Abdukodir Khusanov are currently on the treatment table and unlikely to return and while there were touching debuts for the Heskey brothers in midweek, they are unlikely to see Premier League minutes. 

Gianluigi Donnarumma, Ruben Dias, Josko Gvardiol, Rodri, Tijjani Reijnders, Jeremy Doku and captain Bernardo Silva will all return for this one, while Rico Lewis or Matheus Nunes should start in place of Khusanov at right-back.

Football Odds

Scott Parker made changes in midweek as his side lost to Cardiff City in the Carabao Cup, and he faces a tough task here. Lesley Ugochukwu served his one-match suspension last weekend but played in midweek and is free to play again, so he should start along with Josh Cullen in midfield. 

Given how his side performed in the late 1-0 defeat to Liverpool, we can expect a similar line-up here from Parker in a robust 5-4-1 system. Hjalmar Ekdal and Maxime Esteve could be joined by regular midfielder Josh Laurent at the back, with Kyle Walker able to play at centre-back or wing-back against his former club in that system. 

Today's Football Fixtures

Manchester City vs Burnley Odds

Manchester City are the 2/11 favourites to win this game, giving Guardiola’s side an implied win probability of 85%. Burnley are the 16/1 outsiders, while 13/2 is on offer for the draw on Saturday. 

BTTS is 11/10, over 2.5 goals is 4/9 while Haaland is just 2/1 to open the scoring, and 4/9 to continue his run of scoring in all but one game this season for club and country.

Erling Haaland to score 2+ goals @ 11/5 

This should be a big win for Manchester City, and Haaland is in sparkling form, so let’s back him to find the net two or more times at the Etihad Stadium. He has only failed to score this season in the defeat at home to Spurs, having scored six goals in five Premier League outings and once against Napoli in the Champions League. 

When you add the five goals he scored for Norway against Moldova to that, you can see just how hot he is running right now. The goal at Arsenal was absolutely sensational and shows how much better than any other striker in the Premier League he is, so I don’t think Burnley are going to be able to stop him. 

They did well against Liverpool, but this looks like a massive ask and I can see them getting torn apart, especially if they concede early. One way traffic is expected in Manchester on Saturday afternoon. 

Manchester City to win with -2 handicap @ 5/4

Manchester City have won their last 18 games on the bounce against Burnley, and eight of their last nine without conceding. Burnley have only managed five goals in total in this losing run, which stretches all the way back to March 2015. 

It’s incredibly unlikely that Burnley will score, especially given that they have one draw and three defeat from their last four outings, meaning City only need to win 3-0 or more to make this bet a winner.

Given how Guardiola’s men have been playing, I’m expecting a massive home win, and the best value sits in the -2 handicap market. 

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down

Opt in and place an In-Play single bet of £10 or more at odds of 1/2+ on any Premier League match on Saturday and get £5 in Free Bets to use In-Play on Sunday or Monday’s Premier League matches.