Leeds vs Aston Villa Stats-Based Bet Builder Tips: 33/1 shot for more Leeds misery

Leeds United need to start getting wins on the board if they are to stay out of the relegation zone. They were poor at the City Ground prior to the international break as Daniel Farke saw his side lose 3-1 having taken an early lead.

Their next test comes at home to Aston Villa (14:00, Sky Sports Main Event), with Unai Emery’s men smashing four past Bournemouth last time out. Below you can find my Leeds vs Aston Villa Stats-Based Bet Builder Tips as we search for a winner. 

Aston Villa -1 handicap

I think this should be relatively straightforward for Aston Villa on Sunday. Leeds have picked up eight points from five home games, and they are stronger at home than on the road, but I still think the tide is turning against Farke right now. They’ve lost four of their last five, while Villa have won eight of their last 10 games in all competitions. 

Emery’s men have certainly turned a corner after a slow start, and they’ve only dropped points against Liverpool in their last six Premier League outings. They should fancy their chances of an away win here, and I’m adding a -1 handicap to spice up our odds that little bit more. 

Leeds vs Aston Villa Odds

Emiliano Buendia to score

Emiliano Buendia has returned to the Villa team with a bang. Such a talented player, the former Norwich City star has been held back due to his injury issues, but when he is fit, he’s clearly a player that Emery really rates. 

He’s scored three goals in his last five Premier League matches, and remarkably, he’s only started in one of those - the 4-0 success over AFCB in which he found the net. He’s played 430 minutes for Villa in the top flight, meaning he is averaging a goal every 143 minutes this season. In recent weeks he’s been flying, and with Ollie Watkins misfiring, let’s back Buendia to find a goal at Elland Road.

Over 3.5 Villa corners

Villa should have the better of this game and therefore they should be able to have at least four corners. In their last five games they have registered six, six, five, four and six corners and they are averaging 5.36 per 90 this season, so over 3.5 should be doable. Leeds have conceded at least four corners in their last three Premier League fixtures, so this one boosts our odds slightly. 

Ethan Ampadu to get carded

Lets finish with a Leeds United yellow. Ethan Ampadu is a top midfielder, but he is often left stranded in midfield on his own and he has already picked up three yellow cards in nine Premier League games this term. 

I think Villa can swarm the midfield and the Welsh international is likely to have to make a few fouls. He’s averaging 1.83 fouls per 90 and I think a couple more here will land him in the book. Our Bet Builder pays 33/1.

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