Chelsea vs Leeds Prediction: Goals galore at Stamford Bridge

Chelsea will be seeking a fifth consecutive victory in the Premier League when they entertain Leeds United at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday (19:30 GMT, TNT Sports 4). The Blues will also look for revenge against the visitors after suffering a 3-1 defeat at Elland Road back in December.
Leeds head here off the back of an impressive win over Nottingham Forest, which keeps the Whites six points clear of the bottom three. Below you will find my Chelsea vs Leeds predictions, alongside the latest match odds and team news.
Chelsea vs Leeds Betting Tips
*Odds correct as of the time of publication
Team News
Chelsea are coping with injuries to Jamie Gittens, Tosin Adarabioyo (both hamstring), Romeo Lavia and Dario Essugo (both thigh). Levil Colwill is a long-term absentee because of a serious knee problem.
Andrey Santos is a doubt to feature after picking up a knock in the victory at Wolverhampton Wanderers on Saturday.
Reece James has not featured in his side's last two matches and he will be pushing for a recall on Tuesday. Cole Palmer was the hat-trick hero at the weekend, taking him up to seven goals for the campaign.
Leeds have no injury troubles to worry about, which will be pleasing to boss Daniel Farke ahead of a tough test in the capital.
Facundo Buonanotte, formerly a Chelsea loanee, missed out against Forest on Friday because of the returns of Lukas Nmecha and Dan James, so he could be absent again against his former side.
Chelsea vs Leeds Predicted Lineups
- Chelsea: Sanchez; Gusto, Fofana, Chalobah, Cucurella; Caicedo, Fernandez; Estevao, Palmer, Neto; J Pedro
- Leeds: Darlow; Rodon, Struijk, Justin; Bogle, Aaronson, Ampadu, Gruev, Gudmundsson; Calvert-Lewin, Okafor
Chelsea are 4/7 to make it five league wins on the spin.
Four of Leeds' previous five away trips in the Premier League have ended in draws, with the stalemate valued at 10/3. The Whites are 5/1 to defeat Chelsea for the second time this season.
Six of Leeds' previous seven away fixtures in the top flight have seen both teams find the net, with BTTS - Yes marketed at 8/11.
Chelsea vs Leeds Stats
- Over 3.5 goals has been a winning selection in each of Chelsea's last 3 league games
- 4 or more goals have been scored in both of Leeds' past 2 PL matches
- Leeds were 2-0 up at half-time when the sides met in December
Total Goals - Over 3.5 @ 6/4
While Chelsea are expected to take full advantage at home and make it five wins on the spin, I do feel as though Leeds cannot be underestimated. But because of this, I am avoiding result-based selections here.
Goals are where the value lies because these two teams have been involved in a lot of high-scoring fixtures lately. Over 3.5 goals has been a winning selection in each of Chelsea's last three appearances in the Premier League, while four-plus goals have been scored in Leeds' two lates outings in the top flight.
This was also a successful bet when the two sides met back in December, with the Whites prevailing 3-1 at Elland Road. Both teams have a lot of quality in the final third, and given how vulnerable Chelsea looked against West Ham United in their latest home appearance, there could be plenty of goals on offer on Tuesday night.
At 6/4, which has an implied probability of 40%, this seems too good to ignore.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
First Half Total Goals 2-way - Over 1.5 @ 11/8
I also think there is value to be had in backing goals in the first half. In the reverse fixture, Leeds were two goals to the good before the interval. While this may not be expected to happen in west London, I think there is a strong chance that we will see at least two goals scored.
After all, Chelsea were 2-0 down at the break in their most recent home victory against West Ham, so Leeds will have played close attention to this.
Over 1.5 goals has struck in the opening 45 minutes of both Chelsea and Leeds' past two games in the Premier League, and I do see these trends continuing on Tuesday night.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
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