Brighton vs Aston Villa Prediction: Key stat can deliver 7/2 winner

Aston Villa have gatecrashed the top four after five wins in a row in all competitions and Unai Emery is cooking up another special season at Villa Park. His side will look to maintain their strong form as they visit Brighton & Hove Albion on Wednesday night (19:30 GMT, Sky Sports Cricket). 

Below you can find my Brighton vs Aston Villa predictions for this midweek clash.

Team News

Georginio Rutter is a doubt for this game for Brighton, having been taken off just 10 minutes into the second half at the weekend. 

“At first, of course, it’s a medical decision, we took care of the health of the player. But after the game it seems to be everything good,” Fabian Hurzeler said.

“So he was standing, he was celebrating in front of the fans therefore I don’t see a head injury.

Adam Webster and Solly March won’t play due to knee injuries – and the game is likely to come too soon for Karou Mitoma, who has been out with an ankle injury for two months. 

Premier League Odds

For Aston Villa, Tyrone Mings remains out and midfielder Ross Barkley has been ruled out for around 12 weeks, something Emery described as "a pity".

He has to choose between his two strikers, Donyell Malen and Ollie Watkins in this one, with Malen in fine form of late. 

"They are two very good players and I am playing both. Watkins has my complete confidence. He is always doing his task, maybe he is feeling under his normal [levels of] confidence because he is not scoring but he is never giving up on his task. The goals are coming."

Today's Football Fixtures

Brighton vs Aston Villa Odds

Brighton are priced at 23/20 to win this one, whereas Aston Villa are out at 12/5. That gives the home team an implied win probability of 46%, while a draw is 5/2.

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Aston Villa to win @ 12/5

When this price is staring at you in the face, sometimes you just have to back it. I think Emery is arguably the best manager in the Premier League, pound-for-pound, and he is upsetting the apple cart once again, despite a frugal summer of spending. 

Villa have only lost two games in their last 14 in all competitions, to Liverpool and Go Ahead Eagles, and have now won five in a row. Brighton are up in fourth after a brilliant season of their own, are unbeaten at home and they have won three out of their last four. But I don’t know - I just don’t think this price is fair on a Villa win. Let’s take full advantage and back Emery’s men.

Any Aston Villa player to score from outside the penalty area @ 7/2

Boubacar Kamara’s winner at the weekend against Wolves was Aston Villa’s ninth Premier League goal from outside the box, out of 16 goals they have scored this term. 

It’s a remarkable anomaly in the Premier League, and is shown in the xG table as Villa sit second bottom in terms of quality of chances created. However, they have a lot of talented players who aren’t afraid to let fly, and they are now averaging 0.69 goals from outside the box per match. 

Chelsea hold the record for this statistic with 23 goals in 38 games in 2005/06, at an average of 0.61 per 90. The value, therefore, on this selection based upon what we have seen so far is absolutely massive. 

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