Peru vs Bolivia Prediction: Red mist to descend again?

South America’s qualifying takes another twist in the early hours of Friday morning as Peru host Bolivia at 01:30 UK time. Peru have been pretty poor so far and currently sit bottom of the table with just seven points to their name, while Bolivia are currently occupying the play-off spot in seventh with 13 points from 12 matches. 

Below you can find my Peru vs Bolivia prediction featuring team news and betting tips. 

Team News

The big story for Peru is the return of Andre Carrillo, who at one point looked as though he may not return to add to his 100 caps after dropping out of contention at the end of 2024. However, a move to Corinthians has reignited his career and he’s now back involved and could play a big part under Oscar Ibanez. 

Luis Advincula is in line to play for the 125th time for his country, taking him within three of the all-time record but Alexander Callens and Wilder Cartagena are both out of this squad through injury. Paolo Guerrero is now 41 but continues to battle on for his country while defenders Aldo Corzo and Carlos Zambrano are both 35 and part of this ageing squad. 

Bolivia’s Miguelito will be pleased to get some minutes having been afforded very little game time at Santos, with his last appearance coming in mid-February from the bench. He replaced Neymar that day, and will at the very least be fresh and fit to play for his nation here. 

Cesar Menacho, Gabriel Sotomayor, Enzo Monterio, Henry Vaca and Jeyson Chura have all been left out of the squad this time around, with the first trio all left out on merit, while Vaca and Chura are injured. Four uncapped youngsters will hope to make an impact during this international break, including Diego Arroyo. He’s moved to Shakhtar Donetsk and should be a big part of the squad moving forward. 

Peru vs Bolivia Odds

Peru are priced at 4/11 to win this game having won four games in qualifying so far, giving them an implied win probability of 73%. Having lost their last two away games 6-0 and 4-0, Bolivia are the massive underdogs at 7/1, while a draw can be backed at 3/1. 

Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 1/1 having come in during the last three Bolivia games, while BTTS is 11/8. Guerrero has scored 39 goals for his nation and is the favourite to open the scoring at 7/2. 

Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11

An easy selection for me to kick us off, despite the recent goalfests that Bolivia have been involved in. Now comparing their home form and away form is chalk and cheese, because of the obvious altitude benefits that Bolivia get when playing at home. They’ve beaten Venezuela 4-0, Colombia 1-0 and drawn 2-2 with Paraguay in their last three games in La Paz -  played at one of the highest stadiums in the world (Estadio Hernando Siles, 11,932 feet above sea level). 

Away from home their form is drastically different, and they’ve recently lost 6-0 to Argentina and 4-0 to Ecuador but they did beat Chile 2-1 back in September. Despite being 7/1 for the win, I don’t think Bolivia are a complete write off here given they are taking on the worst team in South America right now, but I also don’t think they can score loads of goals on the road.

Meanwhile, Peru have a real goalscoring issue which is why I am so keen on under 2.5 goals in this one. They’ve scored just one goal in their last five qualifiers, but they are also rarely blown away by the opposition. Four of their last five have finished either 0-0 or 1-0, with the only exception being a 4-0 defeat against world champions Argentina. This should be another close game. 

Football Odds

Bolivia to get a red card @ 11/2

When a pattern emerges, we should take notice, especially when the odds on offer are strong. Bolivia have had a red card in three of their last four qualifiers, and yet we are still getting odds of 11/2 on them to go down to 10-men in what I believe will be the scrappiest and feistiest affair of the lot. 

They’ve got a chance of getting a result here if they put in a robust defensive showing and I cannot see this qualifier taking place without a scrap or two. Bolivia are a brutal team to face under Oscar Villegas and the referee could be forced to reach into his back pocket once again. Worth a small punt for sure. 

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