Peru vs Paraguay Prediction: No goals from the Albirroja

With the Copa America now looming, Peru and Paraguay will meet at the ​​Estadio Monumental ‘U’ in Lima in the early hours of Saturday morning (01:30) hoping to finalise their plans for this summer’s tournament. Both teams will appear at the finals in the United States of America, with Peru taking on Argentina, Canada and Chile, while Paraguay face Brazil, Colombia and Costa Rica in the group stages. 

This friendly will be a great chance for the managers to take a look at their current crop of players, and here is how I see this one panning out. Below you can find my Peru vs Paraguay prediction. 

Team News

Jorge Fossati has a couple of decisions to make ahead of this game, but Christian Cueva and Andre Castillo are two players he knows he can rely upon. Both of them are within touching distance of reaching a century of international caps and the duo should reach that milestone this summer in the United States, all being well. Diego Romero is the unknown uncapped prospect in the squad, while Paolo Guerrero is going to be relied upon for goals once more, after scoring his 39th goal for his country against Bolivia. 

Paraguay are looking for change after a dismal run of results, and seven players could make their debuts in this one, including Alex Arce, Rodrigo Morinigo and Fabrizio Peralata. Captain Gustavo Gomez is the only certainty, and he currently sits on 72 caps, while Derlis Gonzalez is the top scorer for his country selected in this squad, and he has nine international goals to his name. 

Peru vs Paraguay Odds

Peru are priced at 6/4 to win this game, giving them an implied win probability of 40%, while Paraguay can be backed at 2/1 to secure a victory. A draw is available at 21/10, BTTS is 10/11 and over 2.5 goals is 6/5. 

Peru to win to nil @ 3/1

Now to put it bluntly, neither of these sides are in good shape. They both lack quality and I’ll be staggered if either of them are able to get out of their group at the 2024 Copa America, which kicks off in a few weeks. However, my concerns about Paraguay are far stronger at this moment in time. 

There’s a genuine discussion to be had that these two, along with Bolivia, are the worst three teams in South America right now, and the qualifying for the 2026 World Cup would suggest that. However, even though Peru sit bottom of that table with just one point to their name, they have beaten Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic this year, having drawn with Bolivia in November. Those two games allowed them to get some confidence heading into this summer, while Paraguay haven’t played at all since November. 

They are rusty, lacking confidence, and severely lacking goals, which means I think the home side, backed by their own fans, will come out on top. 3/1 on Peru to win to nil feels like excellent value in my eyes. 

Peru 1-0 Paraguay @ 6/1

This game is going to be a fairly turgid affair. Paraguay’s lack of goals is spectacular, and having not played yet in 2024, I’m not expecting a cohesive display from the visitors. Their last six results have finished 0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0 and 1-0. They have amazingly only scored one goal in their last six games, and that came at home against lowly Bolivia. 

They haven’t scored a goal away from home since March 28, 2023, remarkably a run of 15 months without an away goal. Peru should be able to keep them out, having drawn 0-0 with them away from home in qualifying with 10 men. They can find a goal from somewhere, which makes the 1-0 scoreline one I am happy to get behind. 

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