Paraguay vs Colombia Prediction: Diaz to rise again in low-scoring affair

 | November 20 | 

3 mins read

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Paraguay are bidding to become the first team to defeat Colombia in the 2026 World Cup South American qualifiers, as the two nations meet in Asuncion on Tuesday night (23:00).

The hosts have taken five points from as many games so far, with their superior goal difference putting them ahead of Chile in seventh.

Meanwhile, two wins sandwiched either side of three draws has pushed Colombia into third position, with 13 games still left to play for each team.

Paraguay vs Colombia Betting Tips:

  • Colombia to win to win and under 2.5 goals @ 11/4
  • Luis Diaz to score anytime @ 13/5

Team News

Paraguay were dealt a devastating injury blow earlier this month with the withdrawal of Newcastle winger Miguel Almiron, and their squad has been further weakened by the red card issued to right-back Robert Rojas against Chile, which incurs a suspension for this fixture.

Colombia could go with the same line-up that started Friday's 2-1 win over Brazil, though Luis Sinisterra and Cristian Borja will be pushing for starts after coming on at half-time with their nation losing.

Match Odds

Paraguay are 9/4 to inflict Colombia's first defeat of the World Cup qualification campaign, while the visitors are 6/5 to win away for the first time in the group. It's 15/8 for Los Cafeteros to record a third consecutive away draw.

Both teams to score is yet to win in a Paraguay game this campaign; it's 4/6 for BTTS - NO to occur again, while it's 11/10 for Paraguay to snap out of that run and see both teams score in the same match.

Colombia to win and under 2.5 goals @ 11/4

Paraguay's qualifying campaign has been thoroughly dull so far with just three goals scored over five games, and only one in their favour. They're yet to concede at home, but I'm taking that with a pinch of salt due to the level of opposition (1-0 vs Bolivia, 0-0 vs Peru).

The stats probably point towards a goalless draw at Estadio Defensores del Chaco, with Colombia's recording 0-0's in both of their away ties so far (vs Ecuador and Chile).

However, while goals are likely to be at a premium, Colombia should be in a buoyant mood after beating Brazil from behind last week.

Paraguay failed to trouble a beleaguered Chile - whose manager Eduardo Berizzo subsequently departed - last time out, and the continued absence of Almiron doesn't do much to inspire confidence in the Albirroja.

Colombia have kept three clean sheets so far, and another one is a distinct possibility in their final international fixture of the calendar year.

Luis Diaz to score anytime @ 13/5

It's been a turbulent few weeks for the Liverpool winger, with his father held hostage for 12 days before being released on November 9th.

The 26-year-old had an emotional reunion with his father after returning home to play for his country last week, and he subsequently reduced his father to tears in the stands with a second-half brace against Brazil.

Diaz is the main man in the attack, exemplified by the 10 shots he recorded against the five-time World Cup winners last week.

Taking into account that double - both scored with his head - as well as the goal he scored in June's 4-2 win over Germany, I'm slightly surprised he's longer odds to score than both Rafael Borre (12/5) and Jhon Cordoba (23/10). The former has just four goals in 29 caps, while the latter only made his international debut at the age of 30 last week.

Rojas' red card against Chile last week means Paraguay will be forced into a change at right-back on Tuesday, and Diaz will surely be licking his lips at the opportunity to go at their reserve.

Check out our other World Cup 2026 Betting Tips here.

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