Oxford vs Derby Prediction: Another draw at the Kassam?

We’ve got a batch of midweek Championship action to look forward to and on Tuesday night, Oxford United host Derby County (19:45, Sky Sports+). These two were both in League 1 last term and have made decent starts to this second-tier campaign, as they sit in 11th and 12th place respectively. 

It means this meeting isn’t the relegation six-pointer many thought it would be, but there are still three important points up for grabs at the Kassam Stadium. Below you can find my Oxford vs Derby prediction featuring betting tips and team news. 

Team News

Oxford rescued a draw against West Brom at the weekend and it feels as though Des Buckingham will only tinker with the side that has performed so well this term. Malcolm Ebiowei could replace Siriki Dembele on the wing while Louie Sibley could be brought into midfield to provide a more attacking threat. 

Left-back Jospeh Bennett is out until 2025 with a broken ankle, while Matt Phillips and Cameron Brannagan are nearing returns. The pair won’t make this one, but they will provide Oxford with a boost when they return. Josh McEachran and Przemyslaw Placheta both missed that draw with West Brom, with McEachran expected to be back in contention for this game according to his manager. 

Derby boss Paul Warne will also not want to rock the boat too much after his side picked up four points from their last two outings. The former Rotherham manager will be forced into at least one change however as Ryan Nyambe had to be substituted with a knee injury against Millwall. Kane Wilson should start in his place while Jerry Yates will lead the line again after his goal at the Den. 

Nathaniel Mendez-Laing is pushing to get back into the starting XI but competition is fierce, with Kayden Jackson and Corey Blackett-Taylor currently supporting Yates up top. 

Oxford vs Derby Odds

Oxford are priced at 7/5 to win this game, with Derby available at 2/1. A draw can be backed at 9/4, over 2.5 goals is 1/1 and BTTS is 8/11. 

Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11

This should be a fairly tight game with defences on top for the majority. There’s certainly some attacking talent on show but Derby in particular will be prioritising a tight back line as they head to the Kassam. Five of the last six Derby games have ended with fewer than 2.5 goals and they’ve only conceded once in their last two outings. 

Meanwhile, Oxford have seen under 2.5 goals in four of their last six, and there doesn’t appear to be a whole load of goals in either side. I like both goalkeepers in the form of Jamie Cumming and Jacob Widell Zetterstrom, and am more than happy to back them to keep the score down in this one. Under 2.5 goals is my first selection. 

Draw @ 11/5

This one feels like a close encounter between two evenly-matched teams. They both came up from League 1, have both amassed 13 points from 10 games, and are both exceeding expectations. Oxford have drawn their last two fixtures 1-1, while Derby also drew 1-1 with Millwall at the weekend. 

The U’s boast strong home form and are unbeaten so far at the Kassam, but I think both managers would take a draw here. Derby in particular seem to pick up points against similarly-ranked teams, but struggle to beat the big boys of the division, which gives a good indication of where they are at right now. I can see this one being another match in which the points are shared, and if pushed for a correct scoreline, would go for another 1-1. 

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