Osasuna vs Real Madrid Prediction: All about Vinícius Júnior

 | March 15 | 

6 mins read

mack sochon la liga tips

Real Madrid play in the 15:15 window on Saturday afternoon, meaning that their trip to face mid-table Osasuna will not be broadcast live in the UK due to the blackout rules around Saturday afternoon matches.

This doesn't mean you can't bet on the game however and as ever, our Madrid-based Spanish Football expert Mark Sochon is on-hand with his in-depth preview and all of his Osasuna vs Real Madrid predictions...

Osasuna vs Real Madrid Betting Tips:

  • 2nd Half Result - Real Madrid @ 5/6
  • Vinícius Júnior to score anytime & be carded @ 15/2

Real Madrid head to Pamplona for their final game before the international break against mid-table Osasuna. They do so with a seven point advantage at the top of La Liga and they’ll fancy their chances of extending that this weekend.

While it’s already a healthy cushion, Real Madrid have a mouth watering Champions League Quarter Final against Manchester City on the horizon and they’ll want to be in a position where they can afford to rotate and rest players in the league around that tie.

Three points is very much the order of the day here for Los Blancos as a result and if they play as well as they did last weekend, they should be able to do the business.

Carlo Ancelotti would have been hungry for a response after a slightly unconvincing run of performances culminating in a shaky display against RB Leipzig in the Champions League as the Spanish side only sneaked through to the last eight, drawing the home 2nd Leg and giving up a host of chances across the tie.

However, they were much more assured at home to Celta Vigo last weekend. While it took until the 79th minute to score the second of their goals in a 4-0 win and while they did benefit from two own goals, the result was never really in doubt as a dominant Real Madrid put Rafa Benitez’s team to the sword.

Ancelotti would have been pleased by the performance, particularly with Jude Bellingham missing due to suspension, as will be the case again this weekend. There was even a first goal for 19-year-old Arda Güler who has had an injury-ravaged first season in Madrid but is clearly a big talent.

It’s likely to be a slightly tougher game at El Sadar on Saturday with a hostile welcome always guaranteed for Real Madrid in Pamplona. It’s rarely enough to seriously cause problems for Los Blancos though with the side from the capital winning on four of their last five visits.

Since winning the Segunda División in 2019, Osasuna have finished 10th or 11th in three of their four top flight seasons and they are safely lodged in 10th place heading into this matchday with little prospect of a relegation scrap or serious European challenge.

They’ve won their last two home games against Cadiz and Alaves, but whenever they’ve come up against top end opposition, they’ve tended to fall short this season. In fact, they’ve lost all seven league matches against top five opposition, with a combined score of 17-3 in their opponent’s favour.

They were distinctly second best at Girona last weekend, losing 2-0 at Montilivi with Jagoba Arrasate’s plan of playing with three central defenders and packing the midfield not enough to thwart the 2nd placed team.

Things haven’t been going any better at home against the top sides with Barcelona, Girona, Atlético Madrid and Athletic Club having all won on this ground already this term so it’d be a big upset if they were to deny a Real Madrid side that has only been beaten twice all season in all competitions and just once in the league.

Team News:

Real Madrid will have to cope without the suspended Jude Bellingham again while long-term absentees David Alaba, Thibaut Courtois and Eder Militao remain sidelined. The only fresh injury concern is Dani Ceballos, although he’s little more than a fringe player.

Ancelotti has a decision to make in midfield after Luka Modrić rotated in for Toni Kroos and did well against Celta, although the German may still regain his place in the centre of the park.

Osasuna are hampered by an injury to Spain international David Garcia, their most convincing defender. They could switch back to 4-2-3-1 here after struggling with a back three at Girona.

The home team are also missing Aimar Oroz, Kika Barja and Ruben Peña to injuries. Their main goal threat will come from Ante Budimir with the striker on an impressive 14 goals for the season, just two behind Jude Bellingham in the race for the Pichichi Trophy.

Osasuna vs Real Madrid Odds:

Real Madrid are priced at 8/15 to win this game and take another step towards a league title they seem destined to win. You can back Osasuna at 5/1 while the Draw is priced at 16/5.

After scoring four last weekend, you can back Real Madrid to get on the goal trail again with Over 1.5 Away Team Goals priced at 4/6 while you can back Los Blancos to score over 2.5 goals at 2/1.

If you see Osasuna causing some problems of their own, Both Teams to Score is on offer at 5/6 while you can back Over 2.5 Goals at 4/5.

Real Madrid will need to keep an eye on Ante Budimir with the Croatian international scoring a huge 45% of his team’s goals in La Liga this term. Budimir is 11/2 to score first and 15/8 to score anytime in this match.

Meanwhile, in-form Vinicius Junior is likely to be the main danger man again for Los Blancos. The Brazilian is priced at 4/1 to score first and 13/10 to score anytime.

Bet 1 - 2nd Half Result - Real Madrid @ 5/6

Real Madrid haven’t found a great deal of consistency in terms of their performance levels in recent weeks, but one trend has been their ability to grow into games and wear opponents down in La Liga before striking late in games.

That has been really noticeable in away games with 15 goals scored in the Second Half of road matches in La Liga this term and only four conceded. By contrast, those figures are ten and seven respectively before the break.

Ancelotti will clearly have more options in terms of quality players to bring off the bench than his opposite number here and I’m backing 2nd Half Result - Real Madrid at 5/6.

Bet 2 - Vinicius Junior to score anytime & be carded @ 15/2

You can’t keep Vinícius Júnior out of the headlines at the moment. The Brazilian is in fine form and has scored in each of his last three games, but he’s also been booked in all of those matches and was perhaps fortunate to avoid a different colour of card on a couple of occasions.

He’s clearly a player that opposing teams feel they can wind up and get a reaction from and it would be no surprise if Osasuna resorted to those tactics here.

Given what’s happened in those last three matches, I can’t resist using the #PickYourPunt tool to back Vinícius Júnior to score anytime and Vincius Junior to be carded at long odds of 15/2.

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