Olympiakos vs Fiorentina Prediction: Expect a flurry of goals in Athens

 | Tuesday 28th May 2024, 13:20pm

Tuesday 28th May 2024, 13:20pm

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It all comes down to this. Olympiakos face Fiorentina in the Europa Conference League final in Athens at the OPAP Arena, home of AEK Athens on Wednesday night (20:00). Both teams have performed excellently over the course of the campaign to get to this point, and I think we could be in for a cracking game of football in the Greek capital.

Fiorentina are in their second final as many years, hoping to go one step further this time around after losing out to West Ham United last time. They have recent final experience, but they cannot underestimate an Olympiakos side that blew away Aston Villa in the semi-finals. Read on for my Olympiakos vs Fiorentina prediction, accompanied by match odds and team news.

Olympiakos vs Fiorentina Betting Tips

  • Over 3.5 goals @ 3/1
  • Ayoub El Kaabi anytime goalscorer at 15/8

Olympiakos vs Fiorentina Odds

Olympiakos are 21/10 to win this game in 90 minutes, which gives them a 32.3% chance of victory. Fiorentina are valued at 7/5, giving them an implied probability of 41.7%. If you think this tie is destined for extra time, you can back the draw at 11/5 (31.3%).

Both teams to score has landed in 50% (4/8) of Olympiakos' Europa Conference League clashes this term, as well as in 57% (8/14) of Fiorentina's. BTTS is marketed at 5/6 to land in Athens. Over 2.5 goals is on offer at 6/5.

Striker Ayoub El Kaabi has scored 10 goals in the Europa Conference League for Olympiakos this season and he is 4/1 to open the scoring on Wednesday night.

Team News

Olympiakos will be feeling refreshed ahead of this gargantuan contest having had a week to prepare. The Greek outfit have all their main stars available for the final, which will provide them with a huge boost, and this includes former Fiorentina striker Stevan Jovetic. However the former La Viola front man is unlikely to start ahead of the the goalscoring machine El Kaabi.

Only two players will not be available to feature here and they are Gelson Martins and Nelson Abbey. They cannot take part as they were not included on the club's UEFA squad list.

Fiorentina's only injury absence is Riccardo Sottil, who has been sidelined since fracturing his collarbone earlier this month. However, something that could play into Olympiakos' hands is the fact that La Viola boss Vincenzo Italiano has stuck with the same starting XI just once in his three years with the club.

The likes of Arthur, Nicolas Gonzalez and Christian Kouame were rested in their most recent Serie A fixture with Cagliari, so they are expected to return to the starting lineup in Athens.

Over 3.5 goals @ 3/1

I think that there is going to be a lot of quality on show in this final and with that in mind, I don't think there will be a shortage of goals. While over 2.5 goals at 6/5 offers value and a safety net, I like the look of the 3/1 price for over 3.5 goals because both teams have a lot of attacking talent.

Olympiakos' El Kaabi is the first name that springs to mind when speaking of such quality. The forward has netted 10 goals in eight Europa Conference League appearances and he is the top scorer across all three European competitions this term.

He will be supported by Daniel Podence on the left flank, who can create goals as well as score them, and he will be a tough entity for La Viola to contain.

Fiorentina have the threatening Gonzalez and Lucas Beltran, who has netted four goals himself in this competition. Front man Andrea Belotti will be a handful for the Greek side's defence, while Kouame can also pounce out from the left.

Over 3.5 goals has landed in five of La Viola's Europa Conference League clashes this term, as well as in four of Olympiakos'. With so much at stake in this final, I'm expecting an intense attacking effort from both teams, who should treat us to a goal-fest.

Over 3.5 goals at 3/1 Ayoub El Kaabi anytime goalscorer at 15/8

This man has been incredible over the course of the season in this competition. Having suffered a group stage exit in the Europa League, Olympiakos' European dream could have easily faded. El Kaabi said no.

His two goals over the two legs in the play-off round against Ferencvaros set Olympiakos and himself away for this outstanding journey and that momentum has stayed with him through the rest of the knockout stage.

To score 10 goals in eight games of knockout football, regardless of the level of European competition, is incredible. El Kaabi has the top scorer award in the bag but it will mean nothing if it isn't paired with the big prize.

I am expecting him to play a huge role in this final in Athens, and given his incredible scoring record on the road to the final, there is no one I am more confident in seeing find the back of the net than him.

Ayoub El Kaabi anytime goalscorer at 15/8 GOAL FEVER - Get a 25% CASH winnings bonus if your team wins by 3 or more goals in selected matches!

Betfred are running their famed Double Delight & Hat-trick Heaven offer on this match, meaning that if a player scores first and then nets again, you will be paid at double the odds. If he grabs a hat-trick, you will be paid at treble the odds!

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.

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