Olympiacos vs Aston Villa Prediction: Villa to win but it may not be enough

If Aston Villa are to fulfil their dream of winning a European trophy this season, they will have to stage an impressive comeback in Piraeus against Olympiacos (20:00, Thursday). The Greek giants shocked the Premier League side as they beat them 4-2 at Villa Park, as Ayoub El Kaabi scored a famous hat-trick on Thursday night. 

Now they head to the Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium in a bid to reach the final, which incidentally will be held just up the road in Athens, at the home of probable Greek champions AEK. There will be chaos in the Greek capital should Olympiacos cling onto their lead, while Unai Emery is still targeting another European crown. Here’s my Olympiacos vs Aston Villa prediction. 

Team News

The Greek side will be boosted by the returns of Andreas Ndoj and Georgios Masouras, both of whom served suspensions at Villa Park. Stevan Jovetic remains out through injury, but El Kaabi is set to continue up front, as he sits level with Eran Zahavi on eight goals, at the top of the scoring charts for this competition. Daniel Podence, on loan from Wolves, will support him in attack, while Ndoj could come in to replace David Carmo in the centre of defence. 

Morgan Rogers was forced off against Brighton with a muscle issue, and he could miss out here, while Alex Moreno, Youri Tielemans, Nicolo Zaniolo and Emi Martinez are all doubtful. Villa will be desperate for their penalty-saving hero to return for this one, should they force it all the way to spot-kicks. Matty Cash could come into the team in an attacking role, if Rogers and Zaniolo are both absent. 

Match Odds

Aston Villa are the favourites to win this match in 90 minutes, priced at 9/10 to do so, which gives them an implied win probability of 52%. Meanwhile Olympiacos are available at 9/4 and a draw is priced at 16/5. Goals are on the cards according to the bookies, with BTTS as short as 1/2 and over 2.5 goals at 8/15.

Aston Villa to win and over 2.5 goals @ 13/8

I don’t know if Aston Villa are going to qualify in Piraeus, but I think they will win the game in normal time. They need to win by two clear goals to force the game to extra-time, and given what we saw in Birmingham, that is going to be a tough ask. There are likely to be plenty of goals at both ends, as we saw the quality of Olympiacos’ attack at Villa Park. 

I think there will certainly be over 2.5 goals in this 90 minutes, and given Villa have to go all out for a big win, I think they will beat Olympiacos in 90 minutes. I can envisage a scenario where Villa are 2-1 up with five minutes to go, and the hosts simply shut up shop in order to secure qualification. The Greek giants are in a very good position in this tie, and should be able to find their way through, even if they lose in 90 minutes on the night. 

Ollie Watkins to score anytime @ 13/10

An easy selection this season. Watkins scored in the first leg, and now has 27 goals in 50 appearances in total this term. He is Villa’s main man and given they should be on the front foot for almost the entirety of the game, he should be able to find the net. The England international has got five goals in nine games in this competition and I certainly expect him to continue that. 

He’s currently averaging 1.35 shots on target every 90 minutes, and I’m fairly sure he will step up to the plate here. Villa need goals, so let’s back their best forward to find the net in this Europa Conference League semi-final. 

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