Northern Ireland vs Luxembourg Prediction: Bradley to bag again for Green & White Army

The Uefa Nations League returns to Windsor Park, Belfast on Thursday (19:45) as Northern Ireland host Luxembourg in their Group 3 opener. Belarus and Bulgaria, the other two teams in the group, kick their campaigns off against each other simultaneously.

Read on for my Northern Ireland vs Luxembourg prediction and all the latest team news ahead of this UNL clash.

Team News

The most significant team news for Northern Ireland is that there will be no Jonny Evans after the 107-cap defender called time on his international career last week. Evans' brother, midfielder Corry, is also not included after failing to find a new club since his summer departure from Sunderland.

Jamie Reid, Dale Taylor, Aaron Donnelly, Conor McMenamin and Pierce Charles are the other players who were involved in the June internationals against Spain (1-5) and Andorra (2-0) but have not been named this time around.

Paddy McNair, George Saville, Ali McCann, Luke Southwood and Shayne Lavery are all back in the fold after missing out in the summer, however.

Jamal Lewis is in the squad but looks likely to miss Thursday's match after only recently finalising his transfer from Newcastle United to Brazilian giants Sao Paulo.

Football Odds

Luxembourg's three most experienced players in their latest squad are all defenders - captain Laurent Jans, Lars Gerson and Maxime Chanot - who have 104, 97, and 71 international caps respectively.

Further experience can be found in midfield, where Christopher Martins Pereira (68 caps) and Florian Bohnert (45 caps) will join new Benfica recruit Leandro Barreiro (56 caps).

There is firepower in attack, too, with ex-Norwich City forward Daniel Sinani and Gerson Rodrigues, who boast 13 goals in 64 caps and 21 in 63 caps respectively.

Northern Ireland vs Luxembourg Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Northern Ireland vs Luxembourg page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Northern Ireland and Luxembourg have met five times in international competition, with the former winning three times compared to the latter's once. The Green and White Army triumphed 3-1 the last time these nations faced off, at the Stade de Luxembourg in March 2022. Josh Magennis, Steven Davis and Gavin Whyte were scorers for NI that day, while Marvin Martins struck the hosts' goal in that international friendly.

NI have failed to win either of their two competitive fixtures with Luxembourg, drawing 1-1 at home in September 2012 before losing 3-2 away a year later, yet they have been installed as 1/1 favourites to take all three points on Thursday, giving them an implied win probability of 50%. Luxembourg are 12/5, or a 29.4% chance, to take the victory, while the draw can be backed at 9/4.

Both teams to score is 10/11 and over 2.5 total goals is 6/5.

Magennis is the 9/5 favourite to score anytime and is 9/2 to repeat his feat of over two years ago by netting the first goal of the game on Tuesday, while Rodrigues is Luxembourg's shortest-priced player to strike anytime at 2/1.

Anytime Scorer - Conor Bradley @ 11/2

Liverpool right-back Conor Bradley enjoyed a breakout 2023/24 campaign, making 11 Premier League appearances - scoring once and providing three assists - and starting the Reds' Carabao Cup Final victory over Chelsea.

The 21-year-old was also in terrific form for his country before jetting off on his holidays, netting his first international goal in a 1-0 win against Scotland at Hampden Park in March before bagging a first-half brace in the 2-0 victory over Andorra in June.

Bradley plays at right-back for Liverpool but is given licence to burst forward in an attacking system, while he is granted even greater freedom for Northern Ireland by either starting as a right wing-back or in an even more advanced position, with plenty of players behind him to cover.

Clearly, he is already one of, if not the most, talented players in Michael O'Neill's side, and the team is being moulded around his abilities.

He showed his eye for goal in a season-long loan spell at Bolton Wanderers in 2022/23, scoring five times in League 1, and you can expect him to go for goal at any available opportunity on Thursday.

Bradley is yet to start a game for Liverpool this season but already has two shots to his name in the Premier League, testing the Ipswich Town goalkeeper with one effort on the opening weekend.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 Goals - Northern Ireland & Under 2.5 Goals @ 11/4

After a difficult few years, Northern Ireland have finally pieced together some form on the international stage. The Green and White Army have lost just one of their last five matches, starting this run of results with a 2-0 Euro 2024 qualifier victory over Denmark in their final game of 2023.

O'Neill's side then began this calendar year with a 1-1 draw against Romania and a victory over Scotland in March, before following up a 5-1 defeat to Spain - who won Euro 2024 just a month later - with a 2-0 win against Andorra in June. All three of their triumphs in that period saw under 2.5 goals, with Denmark, Scotland and Andorra all denied from scoring.

Luxembourg, meanwhile, have lost three of their four matches in 2024 - failing to score in any of their defeats to Georgia (0-2), France (0-3) or Belgium (0-3). All three of those nations reached the knockouts of Euro 2024, however, highlighting the difficulty of those games.

As such, I don't expect Northern Ireland to net as many as France or Germany, especially considering they have not scored three in a match since March 2022,  ironically against Luxembourg, who have only shipped three goals in a game on three occasions since - twice to Portugal, and once to Turkey, two other high-level nations.

The last meeting between these sides was an international friendly, which may go some way to explaining the high number of goals in that fixture.

In a more competitive context on Thursday, I think we could see a much cagier contest, with just a goal or two struck, but I do expect it/them to go in the direction of the hosts, who should be buoyant given their record over the past five matches.

Offers

Place an In-Play single bet of £10 or more at odds of 1/2+ on any Nations League game on Thursday and get £5 in Free Bets to use In-Play on any Nations League game on Friday.

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