Newcastle vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Sesko-less Magpies go from buyer to Sela

Newcastle United compete at St James’ Park as part of a double header against Atletico Madrid this Saturday. Their men’s and women’s sides will both face their Spanish counterparts, with the men taking to the pitch second (16:00, NUFC TV).

Something called the Sela Cup is on the line. Nope, me neither. Speaking of double-headers, this will be Newcastle’s second game in two days against La Liga opposition. They also face Espanyol on Friday evening. Read on for my Newcastle United vs Atletico Madrid predictions ahead of this pre-season affair.

Team News

The home side’s team selection will be dictated by how Eddie Howe wants to use his resources across Friday and Saturday. At press time, the Espanyol game is yet to be played. One would assume the stronger XI will be employed on Saturday, but there may be tactical nuances the manager wants to look at in each match.

One player who will not feature in either clash is Alexander Isak. The wantaway striker has become the story of the Magpies’ summer. Whether it be his own efforts to leave or the club’s failure to pre-emptively replace him, with Benjamin Sesko choosing Manchester United over Newcastle this week.

Sven Botman has missed Newcastle’s last two games with a groin injury, so it will be interesting to see if Howe is able to give him minutes across these two games. Joe Willock will definitely miss out, as he is waylaid with a calf problem.

Football Odds

Conor Gallagher could get a run-out for the visitors. The England midfielder is a true innovator. Gallagher was one of the first examples of Chelsea’s recent approach of selling any player who isn’t nailed down every summer to fund another credibility-busting bout of largesse.

Other I-remember-hims that the Magpies faithful could be treated to include ex-Manchester City goal-getter Julian Alvarez, Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur loanee Clement Lenglet, and Alexander “wasn’t he crap for Palace?” Sorloth. The latter is now decidedly not-crap, breaking the 20-goal barrier in his past two La Liga seasons. But even the best wilt under the bright lights of Selhurst Park, apparently.

Newcastle United vs Atletico Madrid Odds

The Toon Army are narrow 6/4 favourites, presumably because Diego Simeone’s men have to deal with a wall of topless middle-aged men in the stands, something Newcastle’s squad are more than used to.

Atleti are priced at 8/5, with a healthy 38.5% implied probability of victory. If you fancy the draw after 90 minutes, that is priced at 11/5. If the scores are level after 90 minutes, the Sela Cup is decided on penalties. But you all knew that didn’t you?

Football Fixtures

Newcastle to win @ 6/4

Howe’s lads have won just one of their five friendly outings and got ripped apart 4-0 by Celtic. They also scored their one victory in pre-season by the same margin, but admittedly that came against Carlisle. 

Atleti have eased into their preparation as they were still part of the Club World Cup as late as June 23. The Rojiblancos lost 1-0 to Porto last weekend and now travel to a side who have five games under their belt.

That will be the deciding factor here I believe. Results matter little in pre-season. It is about fitness, rhythm and groove. The Magpies will be finding theirs now after a handful of games against varied opposition.

Conversely, the Spanish side bounced from an apparently-major tournament into training for the new campaign. Throw in flights to Portugal and England and it all adds up, even if you don’t get a massive amount of air miles for covering those distances.

Newcastle just feel more ready for this challenge than their opponents. Man-for-man I give Atletico the quality edge. But I just find the Premier League side to be sharper at this stage.

Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 1/1

The one-sheet on Atleti has never changed under Simeone. The La Liga outfit’s defensive identity is perhaps overplayed. No team is ever just one thing and English viewers mostly encounter the club in the Champions League, where they are often clashing with more luxuriously-appointed squads.

But I do still back the Spanish outfit to keep this relatively tight. Paris Saint-Germain put them to the sword 4-0 in the Club World Cup, but two goals arrived after the sending off of Lenglet. You have to go back to March of this year to find the last team who stuck more than two goals past the Madrid side. That was Barcelona in a 4-2 victory in La Liga, a game where they suffered from a brace of injury time goals.

With Newcastle trying to secure an Isak replacement, Howe has been experimenting with Anthony Gordon up front. They do not seem like a side custom-built to put a club of Atleti’s standing to the sword. Not to the tune of more than two goals, anyway.

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