Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction: Jets to have big say in Premiers race

There are just two rounds left of the regular Australia A-League Men's season before the top six carry on the campaign in the finals series. Wellington Phoenix will bypass the quarter-finals and advance to the semis after confirming a top-two finish last week, but their opponents this Friday, Newcastle Jets, will not be there as the highest they can now finish is eighth.

Victory for the Jets at McDonald Jones Stadium and a win for Central Coast Mariners against Adelaide United on Sunday would deny the Nix the chance of becoming A-League Premiers, though. Below is all the latest team news and match odds for this 10:45 kick-off in Newcastle, which can be viewed live in the UK via TNT Sports 3, as well as our Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix prediction.

It's been a tough campaign for the Jets but back-to-back wins over Sydney FC (3-1) and Brisbane Roar (2-0) has at least pushed them up to 10th and out of wooden spoon contention, leaving Western United and Perth Glory to battle it out to avoid finishing bottom.

The Nix, meanwhile, kept their Premiers title ambitions going with an injury-time winner against Melbourne Victory (1-0) last week, a result which sees them level on points with leaders Central Coast Mariners and behind only on number of wins.

Newcastle Jets and Wellington Phoenix have met twice already this season, with each winning away at the other. The Jets won 3-0 in New Zealand in December courtesy of a brace by Apostolos Stamatelopoulos and a strike by Clayton Taylor, while the Nix triumphed 2-1 in Australia in January - Trent Buhagiar thought he had secured a point for the hosts after cancelling out an early Alex Rufer penalty, but the visitors found a winner late on through Oskar Zawada.

Team News

The Jets are still without the injured Jacob Dowse, who has been out since the start of the season, while Lucas Mauragis and Mark Natta are both on international duty with the Olyroos at the AFC U23 Asian Cup in Qatar.

The match winner at McDonald Jones Stadium in January, Zawada, has made just three substitute appearances since, with an injury keeping him out of action since the start of March. The Polish striker has made a surprise return to the squad ahead of Friday, though, but it remains to be seen just how many minutes he will be able to play.

Isaac Hughes, who hasn't featured since March 16, is still out injured.

Match Odds

Newcastle Jets are 7/4 to record a third-straight A-League Men's victory, giving them an implied win probability of 36.4%. Wellington Phoenix's chances are rated slightly higher at 44.4%, with odds of 5/4.

The draw can be backed at 12/5, both teams to score at 8/15 and over 3.5 goals at 6/4.

Draw @ 12/5

Friday's fixture is a tough one to predict with both sides on a good run of form. The Jets have lost just one of their last five games and have won their last two, while Wellington have emerged victorious in three of their last four.

All three of the Nix's wins have come at the Sky Stadium, though, with Giancarlo Italiano's side losing their last two away outside of New Zealand and drawing two of the prior three. They've actually drawn five of their 13 away games in the A-League Men's this season - only Melbourne Victory (eight) have been held to more stalemates away from home.

The Jets, meanwhile, have picked up the fewest points at home (13) in the division. They've won three, drawn four and lost four of their 11 games at the McDonald Jones Stadium.

It's a difficult one to call either side, so this may be one where the draw provides some value. They have a win apiece against each other this season, and there may not be an overall winner after Friday's head-to-head.

A point wouldn't be the worst result for the Nix, who will see Premiers rivals Central Coast Mariners play Adelaide United on Sunday just days after a gruelling midweek trip to Kyrgyzstan.

The Jets will have a further say in the Premiers race as they host the Mariners in their final match of the 2023/24 campaign.

#PickYourPunt - BTTS - Yes, Apostolos Stamatelopoulos to score anytime & over 9.5 corners @ 13/5

Both teams found the net in this fixture in January and with little to play for in their last two matches of the season, Newcastle Jets can afford to be adventurous at home on Friday.

60% of their A-League Men's games this season have ended with both teams scoring, with the figure jumping up slightly to 64% when they're at home.

The Nix's overall BTTS number is a bit lower at 52%, but it's 62% away from Wellington.

The home side's top scorer Stamatelopoulos is one man that will be expected to fire on Friday. The 25-year-old has struck 16 times in the league, with only Melbourne Victory's Bruno Fornaroli (18) and Perth Glory's Adam Taggart (17) netting more in the competition.

His bid for the Golden Boot has been boosted with a goal in each game in April so far, and he scored twice in the first meeting between these sides in December.

There were 10 corners in that game - six for the Nix and four for the Jets - and even more in Newcastle in January when a total of 17 corners were awarded - nine for the hosts and eight for the visitors.

Both sides actually average a similar number of corners (for/against) per game this season, with Wellington (11.7) slightly ahead of Newcastle (11.6).

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.