Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne City: A war of attrition in gameweek one

Newcastle Jets begin their 2024/25 Australian A-League campaign with a home game against Melbourne City at McDonald Jones Stadium on Saturday (07:00, TNT Sports 1).

Below you can find my Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne City prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, as the hosts chase a first head-to-head win since June 2021.

Team News

Experienced Newcastle Jets trio Jason Hoffman (Newcastle Olympic), Carl Jenkinson (Bromley) and Brandon O'Neill (Perth Glory) all left the club in the off-season, as did younger talents Lucas Mauragis (Central Coast Mariners) and Archie Goodwin (Adelaide United).

Trent Buhagiar, who scored five A-League goals in each of his two seasons with the Jets, also joined Italian Serie B side Brescia, but the biggest departure by far was that of Australia international Apostolos Stamatelopoulos (Motherwell), who struck 17 times in 25 league appearances in 2023/24, a tally bettered only by Perth Glory's Adam Taggart (20) and Melbourne Victory's Bruno Fornaroli (17).

Jets head coach Robert Stanton will hope new arrivals Wellissol (Brusque) and Lachlan Rose (Macarthur FC) can help fill the void left by Stamatelopoulos.

Aleksandar Susnjar (Perth Glory), Matthew Scarcella (Sydney FC - loan) and Eli Adams (Melbourne Victory) have also joined the Jets ranks in the last four months.

Alex Nunes, Ben van Dorssen and Zac Bowling are the only players not named in Stanton's original squad for this weekend.

Football Odds

Melbourne City have lost several key stars themselves, not least last season's most impressive performer, Tolgay Arslan (Hiroshima), and the A-League Men's all-time top goalscorer, Jamie Maclaren (Mohun Bagan).

Nuno Reis has joined Maclaren in India, while Vincente Fernandez returned to Chile (O'Higgins). Loanees Marin Jakolis (Angers, now Macarthur FC) and Leo Natel (Corinthians, now Paphos) both returned to their parent club following the conclusion of last season, when City lost on penalties to rivals Melbourne Victory after a 1-1 draw in the play-offs.

There have been some significant additions to the squad, however, with Australia international Nathaniel Atkinson rejoining the club after three years spent in Scotland with Heart of Midlothian, while Yonatan Cohen (Maccabi Tel Aviv), Andreas Kuen (Atromitos) and German Ferreyra (Yenisey) are all taking their first steps in the country.

Aziz Behich has been named the club's new captain after returning from a brief loan stint in Saudi Arabia with Al-Nassr, where he linked up with Cristiano Ronaldo and Sadio Mane.

Unfortunately for head coach Aurelio Vidmar, Mathew Leckie, Max Caputo, Alessandro Lopane, Jayden Necovski, Harry Shillington and Emin Durakovic have all been ruled out of their season-opener through injury.

Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne City Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne City page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Newcastle Jets are 9/5 to kick off the new campaign with a victory, giving the hosts an implied win probability of 35.7%, while Melbourne City are 23/20, or a 46.5% chance, to take all three points, with the draw priced at 5/2.

Both teams to score is available at 4/9 and over 2.5 total goals at 8/15, while Jets' Rose and City trio Cohen, Medin Memeti, Andrew Nabbout (15/8) are tied at the top of the anytime goalscorer market.

Both Teams to Score - No @ 13/8

You won't find me backing BTTS - No in many A-League Men's games this season, so I'm jumping at the chance when an opportunity does present itself.

This bet was a winner in both meetings between the sides last season as City won 2-0 in Newcastle last December before being held to a goalless draw in Melbourne less than four months later. BTTS - No also landed in February 2022 as City triumphed 3-0 on home soil, meaning three of the last five games between the two have ended with at least one team failing to find the net.

City topped the BTTS table last season as 76% (22/29) of their A-League matches finished both teams scoring but, interestingly, two of the seven that didn't were against the Jets, who only saw 58% (15/26) of their contests end with at least one goal on either side - only three clubs recorded a lower percentage.

Meanwhile, only Western United (36) struck fewer A-League goals than the Jets (39) in 2023/24, and the departure of the division's third-top scorer Stamatelopoulos, to Scottish side Motherwell, is unlikely to aid their chances of bettering that tally this term.

City have also lost a shedload of goals as their top four goalscorers - Arslan (13), Maclaren (10), Leo Natel (six) and Antonis (five), who made up 68% of last season's total - have all gone overseas. With forwards Leckie and Caputo also ruled out of Saturday's opener, I fear this game could be deprived of goals, and thus the 13/8 on BTTS - No appeals.

Corners Over/Under 10.5 - Under 10.5 @ 6/4

I'm also going conservative on the number of corners to be taken at McDonald's Jones Stadium, based on the recent history between the pair.

There were nine corners in the most recent meeting in Melbourne earlier this year, and only one more last December in Newcastle. An April 2023 head-to-head saw this selection narrowly lose but City's 2-1 away win in November 2022 saw 10 corners taken again and with just eight awarded in City's 3-0 home victory in February 2022, under 10.5 corners has been a winning bet in four of the last five games between the sides.

In a match that I think could be lacking in goalmouth action, it might be worth backing the unders here as, once again, it's not a bet that I will be advising too many times in the future.

Offers

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