Napoli vs Bologna Prediction: Back few goals and a rare draw

The Live TV game on TNT Sports this Sunday evening (19:45 kick-off) from Serie A sees Napoli entertain Bologna but our Italian Football expert isn't expecting a thriller.

Daniele Fisichella previews the match and offers up his Napoli vs Bologna Predictions...

Napoli will be eager to right the ship this Sunday as they host Bologna in their first home match of the Serie A season. The pressure is already mounting on manager Antonio Conte, who is under scrutiny following a shocking 3-0 defeat to Hellas Verona in the season opener. This loss has left many questioning whether Napoli can challenge for a top-four finish, and the clash against Bologna could be pivotal in shaping the early narrative of their campaign. 

The Partenopei's start to the season has been nothing short of a disaster.  

Conte, known for his demanding nature and tactical acumen, was left frustrated as his side was outplayed by a Verona team that exposed Napoli's weaknesses in both mentality and structure. Napoli missed a couple of decent chances in the first half, and their defensive frailties were laid bare as they conceded three times in the second half. The absence of key forward Victor Osimhen, who is embroiled in transfer speculation, has left a glaring void in attack, further complicating Conte's job. 

In contrast, Bologna come into this fixture after a 1-1 draw with Udinese in their opener. Vincenzo Italiano's side displayed resilience and creativity, although they lacked the cutting edge to convert chances into goals, despite registering the highest xG (expected goals) value of 3.11 in Europe’s top four leagues last weekend 

With both teams eager to secure their first win of the season, this match is poised to be a test of character and tactical discipline. Napoli's home advantage and the need to appease their fans could play a crucial role, but Bologna will sense an opportunity to exploit the home side's vulnerabilities and pull off an upset, as they did last season. 

Team News: 

Napoli are sweating on the fitness of star winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, who was forced off with an injury during the Verona game.  

His availability remains uncertain, which could force Conte to rely on Giacomo Raspadori or Giovanni Simeone to step up in attack. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding Victor Osimhen, who is linked with a move to Paris Saint-Germain, adds another layer of complexity to Conte’s selection dilemmas. 

In midfield, Stanislav Lobotka and André-Frank Zambo Anguissa are expected to start, tasked with providing stability and creativity. Meanwhile, the defence will be under the spotlight after their collapse against Verona, with summer signing Alessandro Buongiorno poised to replace Juan Jesus. 

In Bologna’s Holm, Urbanski, and Lucumì are back to full fitness, which could lead Italiano to tweak his lineup. However, Bologna will likely stick to their high-pressing approach, aiming to capitalize on any defensive lapses from the hosts. Riccardo Orsolini, who impressed against Udinese, will be a key figure in Bologna's attack as they look to cause problems for the Napoli backline. 

Napoli vs Bologna Odds

Napoli are slight favourites to win with odds of 9/10 reflecting their edge despite recent struggles. A draw, priced at 12/5, is also a strong possibility given that four of both teams' last six Serie A matches have ended level.  

Bologna’s odds of 16/5 for an away win offer value, especially considering their solid away form, including four clean sheets in their last six games. 

In the goals market, "Under 2.5 Goals" at 4/5 seems appealing, given Napoli’s average of just 0.78 goals per game against top-half teams last season and Bologna's recent defensive resilience. However, "Over 2.5 Goals" at 10/11 might attract risk-takers, as Napoli had 12 matches last season producing over 3.5 goals. 

For "Both Teams to Score," the odds are tight (Yes at 4/5, No at 10/11), reflecting Napoli's inconsistency and Bologna’s tendency to win without conceding, which occurred 11 times last season. 

Betting Tips: 

*You can check out all of our Football Odds over at betfred.com

Draw @ 12/5 

Given Napoli’s recent form and Bologna’s ability to frustrate opponents, a draw could be a smart bet. Napoli have failed to find their rhythm, and Bologna’s defensive resilience could see them snatch a point. Historically, draws have been rare between these sides (the last one occurred in 2012), but the current circumstances suggest this could be a tightly contested affair, with both teams likely to be cautious and defensive-minded. 

Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/5 

With both teams struggling in front of goal and Napoli’s attack missing the presence of Osimhen, betting on a low-scoring game seems wise.  

Four of Napoli’s last six Serie A matches and the same number of Bologna’s games have ended in draws, often with few goals.  

As the two teams prepare to face off, Napoli's need for a morale-boosting win will clash with Bologna's confidence in exploiting their opponent's current weaknesses.  

Whether Conte can inspire his team to overcome their early-season adversity will be key, but Bologna will fancy their chances of adding to Napoli's woes. 

Daniele Fisichella primarily covers Serie A for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out all of his Football Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Football writers...