Napoli vs Lecce Prediction: Goals at a premium in Naples

Last season's champions Napoli are on course to produce the worst-ever Serie A title defence in history, and there could be further embarrassment in store for them as their European hopes hang in the balance ahead of their final game of the season on Sunday (17:00, TNT Sports).

Gli Azzurri host 14th-placed Lecce at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Naples, and you can check out my Napoli vs Lecce prediction below, alongside all the latest team news and match odds.

Napoli head into Sunday's contest without a win in their last six games, four of which they have drawn, and they must better Torino's result on the final day and hope Fiorentina win the Europa Conference League next week, to qualify for Europe next season.

At home against a side in 14th, Napoli are expected to win, but it's easier said than done as Francesco Calzona's team haven't won at the Diego Armando Maradona since March 3.

Their opponents, meanwhile, have won two of their last four away from home, shutting out both Sassuolo and Salernitana in victories.

However, they have failed to win any of their last four games and have lost their last two, failing to score against either Udinese or Atalanta in 2-0 defeats.

September's reverse fixture saw Napoli ease to a 4-0 win at the Stadio Via del Mare, but a lot has happened since, with both managers at the game since departed.

Team News

Talismanic forward Victor Osimhen missed last Friday's 2-2 draw at Fiorentina and will miss out again this week with a muscle injury.

The Nigeria international is joined by Pierluigi Gollini, Mario Rui and Piotr Zielinski in the treatment room.

Lecce will be without Lameck Banda, Kastriot Dermaku and Mohamed Kaba once again, but there is hope that Nicola Sansone can recover from the issue that has kept him out since May 5.

Napoli vs Lecce Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Napoli vs Lecce page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

The hosts are 2/5 favourites on Sunday, giving them an implied win probability of 71.4%, while the visitors are 6/1, or a 14.3% chance, to take all three points.

The draw can be backed at 4/1, both teams to score at 8/11, and over 2.5 goals at 1/2.

Under 2.5 total goals @ 6/4

Nine of Lecce's last 11 games have ended with under 2.5 goals, and only Empoli and Torino (both 26) have seen under 2.5 land on more occasions than Lecce (23) in Serie A this season.

Under 2.5 goals has been less common in Napoli matches, with 16 of their 37 in the league so far finishing with two or fewer goals, but this selection has landed in three of their last five, including last time out in Naples when they lost 2-0 to Bologna.

Given Napoli's form in recent months, and indeed throughout the season, I'm finding it difficult to get on board with their short price to win.

Therefore, backing the under 2.5 goals makes more sense to me. If Napoli gets in the lead, I would expect them to hold onto what they have, and not take risks, which could mean few goals on Sunday.

Lecce, meanwhile, have kept clean sheets in two of their last three away games, and only AC Milan have been able to score more than twice past them in their last six on the road.

Three of their matches in that period finished with under 2.5 total goals, and that could be the way to go again this weekend.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia anytime goalscorer @ 13/10

With Osimhen sidelined, much of the responsibility will fall on the shoulders of Khvicha 'Kvaradona' Kvaratskhelia, who needs just one more goal to match his Serie A tally of 12 last season.

It's not been a vintage campaign by any stretch of the imagination for the Georgian international, who hasn't hit the heights of 2022/23 but has at least provided a level of output.

The 23-year-old scored Napoli's equaliser last week - his first goal since March 8 - and that should give him some confidence ahead of his side's final-day fixture with Lecce.

Kvaratskhelia will likely assume penalty duties, which boost his chances of scoring on Sunday, and if anyone's going to be a hero for Napoli, I'd back it to be him.

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.