Milan vs Venezia Prediction: Leao to make early point on return to starting XI

Paulo Fonseca hasn't made the best of starts as head coach of AC Milan, failing to win any of his first three games in charge, so there is plenty of pressure on the Portuguese tactician ahead of his side's Serie A contest against Venezia on Saturday (19:45).

Read below for my Milan vs Venezia prediction and all the latest team news ahead of this clash at the Stadio Guiseppe Meazza.

Team News

There was a big blow for Milan in the international break with the 'severe' calf injury sustained by Ismael Bennacer playing for Algeria against Equatorial Guinea, with the 26-year-old midfielder out long term.

Alessandro Florenzi is another player unlikely to feature for some time, while Malick Thiaw is struggling with an ankle sprain and is a doubt for Saturday's game.

Summer signing Alvaro Morata has returned to full training, however, and could return to the squad for the first time since August 17.

However, the Spaniard is unlikely to start, leaving Noah Okafor and Roma loanee Tammy Abraham to fight it out to lead the line. Abraham's assist for fellow substitute Rafael Leao's equaliser in Milan's 2-2 draw at Lazio last time out may just give the Englishman the advantage, while Leao will also hope that strike earns him a promotion to the starting XI.

Theo Hernandez should also start after being dropped to the bench at the Stadio Olimpico.

Football Odds

Finnish striker Joel Pohjanpolo, who struck 22 times in Venezia's Serie B promotion-winning campaign, made his return from injury in their 0-1 defeat to Torino before the international break and looks likely to keep his place in attack at San Siro.

Gianluca Busio has been recovering from injury and could make his first appearance of the season in Milan, but Icelandic midfielder Bjarki Bjarkason remains sidelined.

Milan vs Venezia Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Milan vs Venezia page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Milan are 2/7 to claim their first victory under Fonseca, giving the hosts an implied win probability of 77.8%, while Venezia are 9/1, or a 10% chance, to triumph for the first time back in the Italian top flight.

The draw is available at 9/2, both teams to score at 10/11, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/15.

Morata (21/20) leads the anytime scorer market after netting in his one and only Milan appearance so far, a 2-2 draw with Torino on the opening weekend of the season, while Pohjanpalo (13/5) is considered Venezia's biggest threat.

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Milan & Yes @ 7/4

With Liverpool next up at San Siro in the Champions League on Tuesday before a Milan derby with Inter on the Sunday, the pressure is really on Fonseca to deliver I Rossoneri's first win of the season against Venezia.

Saturday's visitors to the Guiseppe Meazza are also winless this term, losing 3-1 at Lazio and 0-1 at home to Torino either side of a goalless draw at Fiorentina. The newly-promoted outfit have scored just once and are there for the taking this weekend.

It's not been an ideal start for Fonseca at Milan, but they have only lost once so far - narrowly at Parma (2-1) in round two. They've scored in all three games, netting five times in total, and the link-up between Abraham and Leao against Lazio pointed to a promising connection between the two which Fonseca will hope to exploit again on Saturday.

At home, this is a must-win game for Milan, and I think they will deliver, but I'm not totally convinced about their defence just yet. Hernandez was dropped in Rome, with midfielder Filippo Terracciano shifted to left-back, and there have been two new arrivals - Serbian centre-back Strahinja Pavlovic and Brazilian right-back Emerson Royal - still finding their feet in the lineup, so it may be a little while yet until proper partnerships are formed at the back.

As such, I'm backing Venezia to take advantage of any confusion in defence by scoring at least once at San Siro, but ultimately, Milan should take all three points.

First Scorer - Rafael Leao @ 9/2

It was an inauspicious start to the season for both Leao and Milan, and the Portuguese attacker paid the ultimate price for his poor performances by being dropped by his compatriot Fonseca for the trip to Rome.

However, after scoring his side's equaliser off the bench, I expect Leao to be reinstated to the starting XI on Saturday, and he boosted his confidence with a couple of starts for his national team in the Uefa Nations League, registering an assist for Manchester United captain Bruno Fernandes in a 2-1 victory over Scotland on Monday.

Leao has the talent to take Serie A by storm, as evidenced by his contribution to Milan's title win in 2021/22 when he scored 11 times and created 10 goals for his teammates. The 25-year-old followed up with 15 strikes the season after, but he only managed nine last time out and will be desperate to return to double figures in 2024/25.

The former Sporting Lisbon and Lille winger's final goal of last season was the opener in a 3-3 home draw with Salernitana on May 25, and at odds of 9/2, he's an enticing option in the first scorer market against Venezia.

Offers

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