Melbourne Victory vs Western Sydney Wanderers Prediction: WSW could come up short in finals quest

 | 26th April | 

4 mins read

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Melbourne Victory host Western Sydney Wanderers at AAMI Park on Saturday in an Australian A-League Men's match that could determine the make-up of the Elimination Finals next month.

Kicking off at 10:45, the match will be shown live in the UK on TNT Sports 5, and you can get all the latest team news, match odds and tips ahead of it by reading my Melbourne Victory vs Western Sydney Wanderers prediction below.

Melbourne Victory vs Western Sydney Wanderers Betting Tips

  • Melbourne Victory to win and both teams to score @ 21/10
  • Bruno Fornaroli to score first @ 3/1

Melbourne Victory are already assured of a home Elimination Final as they cannot finish lower than fourth, but they can confirm third place with a win, which would set up a home tie against the team who finishes sixth.

That could be one of three teams, with Sydney FC currently fifth on 38 points, Melbourne City sixth on 36, and this weekend's opponents - Western Sydney Wanderers - seventh on 34 points.

The task is clear for WSW - win and hope Melbourne City fail to beat Western United on Sunday. Any other outcome will see Marko Rudan's side finish the season outside the top six.

Team News

Melbourne Victory will be without full-back Jason Geria as he serves a suspension for the red card he was awarded in last weekend's goalless draw with Brisbane Roar.

Fabian Monge was substituted midway through the second half of that stalemate and has been removed from the squad for Saturday.

Monge is likely to be replaced by Ryan Teague, who has just returned from international duty with the Olyroos at the AFC U23 Asian Cup in Qatar alongside club teammates Nishan Velupillay and Jordi Valadon.

Stefan Nigro and Kasey Bos have also been added to the extended squad, which will be cut down to 18 players on Saturday.

Tom Beadling and Brandon Borello remain out injured for the visitors, while 19-year-old Alexander Badolato has been omitted from the initial list.

Jorrit Hendrix has missed WSW's last two matches through injury but has been named in this week's extended squad alongside Olyroos returnees Nicolas Milanovic and Lachlan Brook.

Match Odds

Melbourne Victory won the reverse fixture 4-3 in Sydney and are 4/5 to do the double over their opponents, giving them an implied win probability of 55.6%. WSW, meanwhile, are 11/4, or a 26.7% chance, with the draw backable at 5/2 (28.6%).

Both teams to score is 8/15 and over 3.5 goals is 11/8.

Melbourne Victory to win and both teams to score @ 21/10

Only Perth Glory (21), Brisbane Roar and Macarthur FC (both 19) have been involved in more A-League Men's games where both teams have scored than Melbourne Victory (17), and only Sydney FC (nine) have won more when BTTS has landed (MVC - seven).

Three of Victory's last five games at home have seen them win and both teams score, with Melbourne City, Perth Glory and Western United all beaten 2-1 at AAMI Park.

Meanwhile, 15 of Western Sydney Wanderers' 26 league games so far have ended with BTTS - Yes, and they have lost eight of them, including their last three matches, which have ended in 2-1 defeats to Melbourne City, Sydney FC and Brisbane Roar.

The Wanderers have to win on Saturday to stand a chance of making the top six, which should lend itself to an entertaining encounter in Melbourne.

However, I think Melbourne Victory will take advantage of WSW's desperation to get the win they require to secure third spot.

The 2-1 in favour of MVC could be worth backing at 7/1 given both sides' propensity for that scoreline over the past month or so, but the above selection does offer a greater degree of surety.

Melbourne Victory to beat Western Sydney Wanderers & both teams to score at 21-10

Bruno Fornaroli to score first @ 3/1

The Wanderers have gone behind in their last three matches, all of which have ended in defeat. Given I'm backing Melbourne Victory to get the win on Saturday, I'm inclined to look at their team for the first goalscorer market.

Leading marksman Bruno Fornaroli, who is just one goal behind Perth Glory's Adam Taggart in the Golden Boot Race, is the standout candidate to strike first on Saturday.

The Australia international has scored 18 A-League Men's goals in just 20 matches this term, and five of them have opened the scoring, including in Victory's 4-3 win over WSW at the CommBank Stadium in December.

Fornaroli actually scored four goals in the reverse fixture, finding the net within the first eight minutes, getting his second on the stroke of half-time, and adding another two in the second half.

Bruno Fornaroli first goal scorer in Melbourne Victory vs Western Sydney Wanderers at 3-1

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.

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