Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction: MVC can bounce back from Newcastle nightmare

Melbourne Victory were brought back down to earth last Saturday as they were beaten 3-0 at Newcastle Jets, and other results have seen Arthur Diles' side slide down to sixth in the Australian A-League Men's standings ahead of Friday's game against Wellington Phoenix at AAMI Park (08:45, TNT Sports 4). Their visitors to Melbourne this week, the Nix, were held to a 1-1 draw by Brisbane Roar last Thursday and languish in 10th, six points behind their next opponents, but they have a game in hand on Victory and are unbeaten in their last four matches, albeit three have ended in a stalemate.

Below you can find my Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Melbourne Victory defender Joshua Inserra is still on international duty with the Young Socceroos at the Fifa U20 World Cup in Chile, so he remains unavailable for selection.

Kayne Razmovski has been left out of Victory's extended squad but Lachlan Jackson and Kasey Bos are in the mix and will hope to avoid the cut from Friday's matchday list.

Fabian Monge, Daniel Arzani, Rene Piscopo and Bruno Fornaroli will all be anticipating promotions to the starting XI after appearing as second-half substitutes in Newcastle last weekend.

Football Odds

Wellington Phoenix could welcome skipper Alex Rufer back on Friday after a six-game absence with glandular fever. The 28-year-old has been named in Giancarlo Italiano's extended squad for the trip to Melbourne and will hope to feature for the first time since December 28.

Luke Brooke-Smith and Xuan Loke are both in contention to make the game but Lachlan Candy has been omitted from the long list, while Stefan Colakovski (knee), Gabriel Sloane-Rodrigues and Marco Rojas (both unspecified) miss out through injury.

New visa signing Francisco Geraldes won't be ready to feature until at least next round's New Zealand derby, but right-back Tim Payne is expected to play a larger part in the game after he made his comeback from the bench against Brisbane Roar last week.

Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Odds

Melbourne Victory beat Sydney FC 2-0 last time out at AAMI Park and Friday's hosts are 4/9 to make it back-to-back wins on home soil, implying a 69.2% probability of success, while Wellington Phoenix, who have only won three times in 38 visits to the ground, are 5/1, or a 16.7% chance, to overcome Victory in Melbourne for the first time since April 2017.

The draw is priced at 16/5, both teams to score at 4/6, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/15.

Fornaroli (9/10) heads the anytime goalscorer market followed by teammates Nikos Vergos (23/20), Jing Reec (7/5) and Nishan Velupillay (7/4), with leading Nix marksman Kosta Barbarouses (also 7/4) first up for the visitors.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 - Melbourne Victory & Under 2.5 Goals @ 16/5

Melbourne Victory went down 3-0 to Newcastle Jets last weekend but they can return to winning ways on Friday against Wellington Phoenix.

Victory have lost just once at AAMI Park in the league this season, suffering a 3-4 defeat to Western United on January 10, and in that game, they were 3-2 up heading into second-half stoppage time.

Diles' side have won four of their seven home matches, picking up 14 points - only Auckland (19) and Sydney FC (16), who have played one and two games more respectively, have collected more points at home.

The Nix, meanwhile, have lost three of their last four away contests and won just two of their last 10 home or away. They are on a four-game unbeaten run but three of those have been in Wellington and all ended in draws.

The New Zealanders have a terrible record at AAMI Park and failed to score on their last visit there against Victory, although they did take a point in a goalless draw last May.

Victory have kept three clean sheets on home soil this term and will back themselves to record a fourth shutout there on Friday against a Wellington outfit that has scored just 16 goals in 15 ALM appearances - only 12th-placed Perth Glory (12) have struck fewer times in 2024/25.

Under 2.5 total goals has landed in 53 per cent (eight) of the Nix's league outings this season, and 50 per cent (eight) of Victory's.

Booking Points Over/Under +32.5 - Under 32.5 @ 11/10

There have been 20 or fewer booking points in two of Victory's last four games - the other two produced at least 40 - and their first four matches at AAMI Park this season all saw under 32.5 booking points awarded.

Meanwhile, both of the Nix's away outings this calendar year have seen 20 or fewer booking points with just two yellows shown in their 2-1 win at Macarthur on January 20 and one in their 2-0 defeat to Melbourne City at AAMI Park 17 days before.

Victory (19) and Wellington (17) are two of just three teams - Adelaide United (13) are the other - to have received fewer than 20 yellow cards this season, and the last two meetings between these sides have seen under 32.5 booking points land.

Earlier in the 2024/25 season, on November 24, the Nix beat Victory 1-0 at Sky Stadium, with Rufer cautioned for the hosts and Bos booked for the visitors, totaling 20 booking points (10 per yellow), while there were three yellows - two for MVC, one for Wellington - in the former's 2-1 win in the New Zealand capital last May.

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