Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City Prediction: Extra time beckons in derby day Elimination Final

 | 4th May | 

3 mins read

AAMI park melbourne scaled

The second and final Elimination Final in the Australia A-League Men's this weekend sees two rivals clash at AAMI Park in the fourth Melbourne derby of the 2023/24 campaign.

Read below for my Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City prediction as the pair compete for a place in the semi-finals, where they will face Premiership winners Central Coast Mariners or runners-up Wellington Phoenix. Sunday's game can be watched live in the UK via TNT Sports 1, with kick-off at 08:00.

Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City Betting Tips

  • Draw (90 mins) @ 23/10
  • Correct score (90 mins) - Draw 0-0 @ 14/1

Melbourne Victory lost 4-3 to Western Sydney Wanderers on the final day of the regular season but kept hold of their third-place position, which they have occupied for much of the campaign, after Macarthur FC lost 3-0 to Wellington Phoenix.

Third spot granted the Boys in Blue a home Elimination Final, but their opponents on Sunday, Melbourne City, will be familiar to the venue, as they also play their home games at AAMI Park.

City secured their place in the top six with a 1-0 victory over Western United last week, their third-straight win.

The Melbourne rivals have played each three times already this season; the first two ended goalless, but Victory earned bragging rights in April's head-to-head, winning 2-1. Tolgay Arslan had opened the scoring for last season's Premiership winners but Bruno Fornaroli struck back before Damien Da Silva made himself a hero in the second half.

Team News

Jason Geria is free to return from suspension for Victory, who have also named Jordi Valadon in the squad for the first time since his involvement with the Olyroos in their failed AFC U23 Asian Cup campaign in Qatar last month.

Ben Folami, Nishan Velupillay, Ryan Teague and Salim Khelifi are all battling for starts after appearing as substitutes last weekend.

Scott Galloway failed to make City's matchday squad against Western United but could feature for last season's Premiers on Sunday.

Andrew Nabbout, Marco Tilio and Ben Mazzeo are all ruled out through injury, however.

Match Odds

Melbourne Victory are 11/8 to beat their city rivals for a second successive game and avoid the need for extra time. That gives the hosts an implied win probability of 42.1%, making them favourites against City who can be backed at 13/8 (38.1%).

The draw is available at 23/10 and both teams to score at 1/2.

Draw (90 mins) @ 23/10

The sides couldn't be separated in the first two meetings this season, and there was little between them in April as only an 86th-minute strike from Da Silva prevented a third-straight stalemate.

Melbourne Victory can be considered something of a draw specialist, having been held more times (12) than any other team in the A-League Men's this season.

Melbourne City's total of six is more conservative but still higher than five other clubs in the division.

I think we could be in for another tense affair on Sunday, with both sides fearing failure.

Draw in Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City at 23-10

Correct score (90 mins) - Draw 0-0 @ 14/1

Considering this scoreline selection has landed twice previously this season, I'm willing to chance my arm at a third Melbourne derby goalless draw at a tempting 14/1.

Victory drew 0-0 with Brisbane Roar just two weeks ago and have failed to score in two of their last three games, while City's most recent goalless draw came against Newcastle Jets on March 30.

Aurelio Vidmar's side thrashed Perth Glory 8-0 on April 14 but managed just one last Sunday against second-bottom Western United.

They could find it tough to breach a Victory defence that conceded just 33 times in 27 A-League Men's games, the third-best defensive record in the competition.

Correct score - Draw 0-0 in Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City at 14-1

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.

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