Melbourne City vs Western United Prediction: Hosts to secure top-six spot

 | 27th April | 

3 mins read

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Melbourne City may have already secured a place in the Australian A-League Men's Elimination Finals by the time they line up at home to Western United on Sunday (KO, 08:00). Should Western Sydney Wanderers beat Melbourne Victory a day prior, though, City will require a win at AAMI Park to secure their top-six spot.

Read on for my Melbourne City vs Western United prediction ahead of Sunday's game, which can be watched live in the UK on TNT Sports 3.

Melbourne City vs Western United Betting Tips

  • Tolgay Arslan to score first @ 3/1
  • Melbourne City to win and both teams to score @ 11/8

Melbourne City have started to hit form at just the right time, with back-to-back wins against Perth Glory (8-0) and Western Sydney Wanderers (2-1) putting them on the cusp of the Elimination Finals.

Aurelio Vidmar's side could even finish as high as fifth, setting up a tie with the fourth-placed team, if Sydney FC fail to beat Perth Glory earlier in the day, and they secure victory over Western United.

The visitors beat the Glory 4-3 last week to avoid the wooden spoon, and can still finish 10th with a win on Sunday, providing the Newcastle Jets don't beat Central Coast Mariners a day prior.

Melbourne City and Western United have already met twice this season - both games being staged at AAMI Park - with a 2-1 win for either side.

Team News

Melbourne City trio Andrew Nabbout, Marco Tilio and Benjamin Mazzeo are all still out injured, but Scott Galloway is free to return after nine games on the sidelines.

Callum Talbot and Patrick Beach are also back in the squad after returning from international duty with the Olyroos at the AFC U23 Asian Cup in Qatar.

Western United have several players still sidelined through injury, including Noah Botic, Daniel Penha, Nikita Rukavytsya and Josh Risdon, but Kane Vidmar and Rhys Bozinovski have been named in the extended squad after absences.

Match Odds

Melbourne City are 2/5 to beat Sunday's opponents for the second time this year, giving them an implied win probability of 28.6%, while the visitors can be backed at 5/1, or a 16.7% chance. The draw, meanwhile, is available at 7/2.

Both teams to score can be found at 1/2,and it's 4/11 for over 2.5 goals.

Tolgay Arslan to score first @ 3/1

Tolgay Arslan has been a bright spark in an otherwise forgettable season for the 2022/23 Premiership winners.

The German midfielder has scored 13 goals in 22 A-League Men's appearances since joining as a free agent last year, and only four players in the division - all strikers - have found the net more often.

Arslan has scored in four of his last six games, netting seven times in that period, and three of those strikes have been the opening goal of the match.

He looks decent value to get himself on the scoresheet first again on Sunday.

Tolgay Arslan to score first in Melbourne City vs Western United at 3-1

Melbourne City to win and both teams to score @ 11/8

There's so much at stake for Melbourne City on Sunday, and little riding on it for Western United, so at home, I'm expecting Vidmar's side to do the business.

At the time of writing, only Wellington Phoenix (29) and Central Coast Mariners (26) have picked up more points at home than Melbourne City (23), and they've won four of their last six there, being held to goalless draws against Newcastle Jets and city rivals Melbourne Victory in the other two.

Western United have improved on their travels recently, beating Perth Glory and Western Sydney Wanderers in their last three away games, but the Glory (six) are still the only side to have collected fewer away points than United (11).

A City win looks likely, but we can add some extra value to the selection by adding in both teams to score.

Half (13/26) of Melbourne City's A-League Men's matches have seen both teams score this term, while 58% (15/26) of Western United's have finished with a goal on either side, including six of their last seven.

Melbourne City to beat Western United & both teams to score at 11-8

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.

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