Mauritania vs Algeria Prediction: Bounedjah can drag foxes into last 16

The Africa Cup of Nations is into the last round of group matches and we have a massive potential shock in Group D. Group favourites Algeria are on the brink of elimination and need to beat Mauritania to progress. We've previewed this one and given you our betting predictions. 

The two countries of Mauritania and Algeria may share a land border but that is pretty much all they share from a footballing perspective.

Algeria are one of the powerhouses of African football, reaching a record-high FIFA ranking of #15 back in 2014, and went on to win the AFCON five years later in 2019. Meanwhile, around the same time, Mauritania were the third worst team in the world, behind only the Cayman Islands and San Marino, making their rise through the rankings has been remarkable.

Nowadays, the north-west African nation are 105th in the world and have qualified for the last three Cup of Nations tournaments.  Sadly their record hasn't been an impressive one and they will still be searching for their first ever win in Bouake.

As for Algeria, their run in this competition since winning it has also been torrid, picking up just three points in their last five games. They could theoretically qualify in 3rd place with a draw but that would see them facing a group winner and they will desperate for a victory here.

Team news

Mauritania boss Amir Abdou may be tempted to give a chance to some of this fringe squad players, after two straight losses look to have eliminated his side at the first time of asking.

Algeria manager Djamel Belmadi changed up his central midfield line up for the draw against Burkina Faso and he may well do so here again, with so much on the line.

Match odds

Mauritania come into this final group game as huge 8/1 underdogs, with Algeria a massive 3/10 odds-on favourite. The draw is backable at 7/2.

This isn't expected to be a mauling, however, with under 2.5 goals as short as 4/6.

Algeria to win and under 2.5 goals - 13/8

The Fennec Foxes have really struggled south of the Sahara and as I suspected, they couldn't overturn Burkina Faso in the last match. However, that last 95th minute equaliser by Baghdad Bounedjah has given them some hope and a win here will take them into the last 16.

Much as I don't rate this Algeria side, Mauritania don't really have enough to trouble them and Belmadi's men should sneak though to the knockout stages, just don't expect a thriller!

Baghdad Bounedjah to score - 11/8

As mentioned above, Bounedjah has been Algeria's one bright spot in this tournament and he leads the AFCON scoring charts alongside Emilio Nsue, with three goals.

The 32-year old has plied his trade in Qatar since 2016 at Al Sadd and has a freakish return of 147 goals in 147 appearances for the club.

He isn't quite as prolific for the national team but still boasts 30 goals in 67 games and can add to that here.

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