Malta vs Finland Prediction: Finns to win in Ta’ Qali

Finland have taken a long trip down south this week to face Malta in their first 2026 World Cup qualifier, which takes place at Homor's National Stadium in Ta' Qali on Friday (19:45). The two nations have faced off five times previously with Finland triumphing on four occasions including last time, in March 2018, when they won 5-0.

Below are my Malta vs Finland predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this Group G game.

Team News

Malta's squad is littered with unfamiliar names, most of them plying their trade in their homeland, but a new arrival into camp this month has made headlines in the UK and beyond.

James Carragher (Wigan Athletic), son of Liverpool legend Jamie, has been called up for international duty after recently being awarded Maltese citizenship. The 22-year-old defender qualifies for the island country through his grandfather.

Basil Tuma (Reading) is the other English-based player in Emilio De Leo's first squad as Malta head coach. The Naples-born 47-year-old has also called up experienced internationals like Henry Bonello, Steve Borg, Joseph Mbong (all Hamrun Spartans), Zach Muscat (Sanliurfaspor) and Teddy Teuma (Stade Reims).

Football Odds

Finland's squad is headlined by goalkeeper and national team captain Lukas Hradecky (Bayer Leverkusen), midfielder Glen Kamara (Al-Shabab) and record goalscorer Teemu Pukki (HJK), but Joel Pohjanpalo (Palermo) and Benjamin Kallman (Cracovia) are expected to lead the line on Friday.

However, none of Marcus Forss (Middlesbrough), Robert Taylor (Inter Miami), Pyry Soiri (Athens Kallithea) or Ilmari Niskanen (Exeter City), all of whom have over 20 caps with the senior side, have been named in Jacob Friis' squad for their March qualifiers against Malta and Lithuania.

Malta vs Finland Odds

Malta are unbeaten in their last four games, keeping a clean sheet in all four, but against higher-ranked opponents than Andorra, Moldova and Liechtenstein, are 9/2, or an 18.2% chance, to claim all three points on Friday. Finland, meanwhile, are 4/7 to begin their campaign with a victory, implying a 63.6% chance of success.

The draw is priced at 5/2, both teams to score at 11/10, and over 2.5 total goals at 11/10.

Pukki (7/5) is favourite in the anytime goalscorer market followed by Kallman and Pohjanpalo (both 13/8), with Kyrian Nwoko (Sliema Wanderers) first up for the hosts at 4/1.

To Win To Nil - Finland @ 11/8

Malta scored in three consecutive games before blanking against Andorra last time out when they were reduced to 10 men in the 17th minute. However, it's fair to say Finland should represent a step up in class from the teams they faced in Nations League Group D2, and if their Euro 2024 qualification results are anything to go by, they will struggle to get anything out of Friday's match.

Homor lost all eight qualifiers, shipping 20 goals and scoring just twice, even with North Macedonia as one of the teams in Group C. North Macedonia may be a better team than Finland - they're listed two places higher in the Fifa rankings - but it still doesn't bode well considering some of the players at the visitors' disposal.

Hradecky has been a top-class Bundesliga goalkeeper for years, Kamara was playing in Ligue 1 for Stade Rennais earlier this season, and Pohjanpalo scored six times in Serie A for Venezia before switching to Palermo earlier this year, where he has found the net four times in six Serie B appearances.

Finland lost all six Nations League games in the autumn but after opening up with a 3-0 defeat to Greece in Piraeus, their next five defeats were all by a one or two-goal margin, so they were not battered by any stretch of the imagination.

They should find much more joy against Malta, and can gain some confidence by keeping a long-awaited clean sheet.

Anytime Goalscorer - Joel Pohjanpalo (FIN) @ 13/8

Pohjanpalo has 16 goals in 77 caps for Finland and struck a respectable six goals in 20 Serie A appearances for Venezia before moving down a division to Palermo, where he has hit the ground running.

The 30-year-old scored once in Finland's Nations League campaign, netting in a 2-1 defeat to Ireland, and he should get the nod to lead the line in Ta' Qali.

Malta shipped seven goals in a 7-1 friendly defeat to the Czech Republic last June and could struggle to live with the movement of Pohjanpalo, so at 13/8, he's worth backing in the anytime market, in my opinion.

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