Mallorca vs Real Madrid Prediction: Sergi Darder a good bet for a Shot on Target

The reigning Spanish and European champions get their La Liga campaign underway on Sunday evening, live on ITV4 from 20:30.

Our Spanish Football expert Mark Sochon has got the assignment for this one and has previewed the clash and put up his two best Mallorca vs Real Predictions for the match...

Real Madrid begin their La Liga title defence on Sunday evening. They travel to Palma to take on a Mallorca side that is starting life under new management. 

While their domestic campaign is yet to begin, Carlo Ancelotti's side have already sent out a statement to the rest of Europe that they remain the team to beat this season. They were particularly impressive in the Second Half against Atalanta on Wednesday, winning the UEFA Super Cup with a 2-0 scoreline and a debut goal for Kylian Mbappé. 

With the likes of Mbappé, Jude Bellingham, Fede Valerde, Aurélien Tchouaméni and Dani Carvajal having missed all of pre-season, it had the potential to be a tricky night for Los Blancos. Atalanta had their moments, but all things considered, it was an impressive display from the reigning European champions. 

There was little evidence of the rustiness that might have been expected in the circumstances, while the early signs for Real Madrid's shape and structure with Mbappé in the team were also positive. 

Vinícius Júnior operated on his favoured left flank, while Bellingham impressed and continued to find pockets of space in a slightly deeper role than we saw from him last season. Another positive was Éder Militão who looked much sharper than was the case at the back end of last term, when he was fighting back to fitness following an ACL injury. 

A lack of central defensive depth is still one area of concern though. The other doubt about Real Madrid is perhaps how they'll find life against teams that are much more defensively minded than Atalanta. There's little doubt that they are going to be devastating on the counter-attack this season with so much pace in attack, but with Toni Kroos no longer around, they may find it a bit tougher to break open teams that sit deep. 

This fixture will be a good test of that and has the potential to prove tougher than their Super Cup encounter. Real Madrid have lost on two of their last four league visits to Mallorca and had to fight hard for two 1-0 wins against this opposition last term. 

Mallorca have since moved on from the defensively minded Javier Aguirre who guided the islanders to a 15th place finish and a Copa del Rey final last term. Former Osasuna boss Jagoba Arrasate is the new man and he feels like a really good fit for this club. 

Arrasate transformed Osasuna into a really solid mid-table team that finished between 7th and 11th in each of the last five Spanish top flight seasons. That's an area of the league that Mallorca will be hoping to reach and the 46-year-old's style should be well suited to building on the defensive foundations left by his predecessor, whilst potentially adding a little bit more freedom for his more attack-minded players to shine. 

That could be good news for the likes of midfielder Sergi Darder and new signing Takuma Asano who scored six goals from out wide for Bochum in the Bundesliga last term. 

The early signs are positive, with Mallorca winning six out of seven in pre-season, the exception being a 1-1 draw against Champions League bound Bologna in their final friendly last Saturday. 

Team News: 

Ancelotti may simply name the same eleven that started the Super Cup in midweek. He could have opted to hold back some of his returning internationals, but the Italian seems to have decided that throwing his stars straight in and letting them build up match fitness in a competitive setting, is the best way to approach it. 

Lucas Vázquez, Arda Güler and Luka Modrić are perhaps the most viable options should he want to bring in some fresh legs. He won't be able to call upon Eduardo Camavinga though, with the Frenchman suffering a knee injury that's likely to rule him out until October. 

As for Mallorca, Arrasate should be in a position to name what he sees as his strongest eleven in the season opener, with young forward Javi Llabrés the only injury concern. 

That's likely to mean a 4-2-3-1 structure, with big Kosovo striker Vedat Muriqi leading the line. The biggest call for the Mallorca boss is in goal, with Leo Román and Dominik Greif competing for a start, following the sale of Predrag Rajković to Saudi side Al-Ittihad. 

Mallorca vs Real Madrid Odds

Real Madrid are the 4/9 favourites to make it a winning start to the new league season. The draw is on offer at 16/5 while Mallorca are priced at 13/2 to cause a big opening weekend upset. 

They can take confidence from 1-0 wins in this fixture in 2019 and 2023. You can back a repeat 1-0 Mallorca victory here at long odds of 16/1 while a 1-0 Real Madrid win is priced at 5/1 and was a winning bet in both meetings in the 2023/24 season. 

Those results do indicate a relatively low-scoring game. Under 2.5 goals is on offer at 5/6 while Both teams to score - No is priced at 8/11. Real Madrid are available at 5/4 to win the game to nil. 

As was the case in midweek, much of the attention will be on Mbappé as he makes his La Liga debut. The former PSG striker is priced at 100/30 to score first and 11/10 to score anytime. 

You can also back Vinícius to score anytime at 8/5 while Bellingham is priced at 23/10 to get on the scoresheet. Muriqi looks the most likely source of a goal from a home perspective, with the striker an 8/1 shot to score first, while he's 11/4 to score anytime. 

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Bet 1 - Under 3.5 goals and Mallorca most booking points @ 21/20 

With few internationals involved in summer tournaments, Mallorca should be the sharper side in terms of match fitness, following a seven-game pre-season schedule. They've pulled off a real coup with the appointment of Arrasate as their new coach and I can see them making a proper game of this. 

The absence of Kroos may prove an issue for Real Madrid in matches such as this, where they are required to break down relatively defensive opponents.  

The hosts may need to get physical at times to stop this electric visiting attack, but I can see it being relatively tight and am using the #PickYourPunt tool to back Under 3.5 goals and Mallorca most booking points at 21/20. 

Bet 2 - Sergi Darder 1+ shots on target @ 7/4 

Sergi Darder has the potential to be a key player for Mallorca this season. He was a real star for Espanyol for a number of years, before moving to Palma last summer following the relegation of his boyhood club. 

He never really thrived under the direct football of Aguirre, but appears a really natural fit for the advanced midfield role in what's expected to be a 4-2-3-1 from the new Mallorca boss. That should enable him to play off Muriqi and get into lots of advanced positions.

At his best, he's a player with an eye for a goal and I like odds of 7/4 for Darder to have 1+ shots on target in this match. 

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...