Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets Prediction: Adamson to extend scoring run

Macarthur's bid to reach the 2024/25 Australia A-League Men's finals series is back on after a dramatic 5-4 win at Adelaide United before the international break. The Bulls ended a five-game wait for a win and are now five points behind the sixth-placed Reds, who occupy the final play-off spot.

Next up for Mile Sterjovski's side are Newcastle Jets, who they host at Campbelltown Stadium on Friday (08:35, TNT Sports 4). The Jets looked to be making a late dash for the finals after embarking on a seven-match unbeaten run, but a 6-2 defeat at home to Western United on March 16 has severely dented their chances, and they are now three points behind the Bulls, albeit with a game in hand. Below are my Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets predictions, supported by the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

The mid-season departures of leading goalscorer and captain Valere Germain, top assister Jed Drew and exciting forward Ariath Piol hit Macarthur hard for a while, but Christopher Ikonomidis got off the mark for the club at the eighth attempt last time out as the Bulls edged a thriller in Adelaide. The 29-year-old should lead the line again on Friday, flanked by Marin Jakolis and Kealey Adamson, both of whom also scored at Coopers Stadium on March 14.

Football Odds

Kristian Popovic (knee) and Walter Scott (unspecified) are still in the treatment room for the hosts, who will hope for more magic from skipper Luke Brattan. The 35-year-old bagged a brace against Adelaide, including the winning goal in the 83rd minute, and will become the 12th member of the A-Leagues' 300 (appearances) club.

Frans Deli, who has made eight appearances in his maiden ALM campaign, is in the extended squad after missing out against Adelaide.

Charles M'Mombwa came off the bench for the injured Clayton Taylor in the 37th minute of Newcastle's big defeat to Western United, and the Tanzania international, who featured for his country in a 2-0 defeat to Morocco on Tuesday, scored his first goal for the club in the second half. The 27-year-old, who spent four years at Macarthur before leaving following the conclusion of last season, will hope that strike is enough to earn him just a second start in blue and red.

Dane Ingham and Aleksandar Susnjar are other potential starters for the Jets after both came off the bench at the beginning of the second half against Western United. Mark Natta and Phillip Cancar were withdrawn for the duo and will be fearing for their spots in Rob Stanton's line-up.

Oscar Fryer (knee) and Jacob Dowse (unspecified) are still injured for the visitors, who have omitted Alex Nunes, Justin Vidic, Ben van Dorssen, Christian Bracco and Garang Arou from their long list.

Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets Odds

Macarthur and Newcastle have already faced off twice this season, with each claiming a victory away from home. There hasn't been a home win in this head-to-head since April 2023; the first two following that 2-1 win for the Jets ended in draws before the current sequence of three away wins.

Still, Macarthur are installed as favourites on Friday, with odds of 23/20 implying a win probability of 46.5%, while Newcastle are 9/5, or a 35.7% chance, to triumph on their travels and move level on points with the South Western Sydney side.

The draw is priced at 5/2, both teams to score at 2/5, and over 2.5 total goals - which has landed in the last four meetings - at 4/9.

Total Goals - Over 3.5 @ 6/5

Four goals were scored when the sides met for the first time this calendar year; Ben Gibson put the Jets in front after 18 minutes, only for Germain to equalise five minutes later. Drew put the Bulls ahead in the 59th minute, and in the first minute of stoppage time, second-half substitute Bernardo Oliveira made it 3-1.

Of course, Macarthur's first two goalscorers that day have since departed the club, leaving a huge void up top, but netting five times against Adelaide before the international break should have restored some confidence in attack. Their front three of Ikonomidis, Jakolis and Adamson all found the net in the opening hour at Coopers Stadium, and they will be licking their lips at the opportunity of facing a Jets defence that shipped six goals last time out.

Both teams are in big danger of missing out on the finals this season; Macarthur are five points behind sixth-place Adelaide, having played a game more, and Newcastle are three points further adrift, so quite simply, both need to win on Friday to stand a realistic chance of making the play-offs. That should create the conditions for an entertaining game full of goals, so the fact that only 29% (6/21) of the Bulls' matches this season have gone over 3.5 doesn't concern me much.

Three of the last four head-to-heads - in all competitions - have seen at least four goals scored, while 45% (9/20) of the Jets' games this term have seen the over 3.5 line land.

Anytime Goalscorer - Kealey Adamson (MAC) @ 16/5

After swapping Sydney FC for Macarthur in 2023, Adamson has spent the majority of his Bulls career as a marauding right-back, bombing up and down the flank. He failed to get on the scoresheet in his maiden campaign but struck his first senior goal in a 4-4 draw with Brisbane Roar in November.

A 14-game barren run followed, but with Sterjovski's side struggling in attack, blanking in back-to-back 2-0 defeats to Sydney FC and Melbourne City, Adamson was thrust into a right-wing role against Adelaide and made the most of his 'promotion', netting in the 10th minute.

The 22-year-old followed that strike up with a stoppage-time winner for Australia U23s five days later as the Olyroos beat Croatia U21s 2-1 in a friendly.

Adamson should be riding high on confidence, and I think he's worth taking on at 16/5 to score anytime on Friday. He's likely to start in attack again, and if he continues in this position, it's only a matter of time before his price is lowered.

He's only scored twice for Macarthur this season, but he's averaging 0.9 shots per game despite playing most of his football as a full-back, highlighting his fearfulness.

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.