Luton vs Burnley Prediction: More Morris magic on Monday night

Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United all earned promotion to the Premier League in May 2023 but, a year later, the trio were relegated back to the EFL Championship. The Blades started life back in the second tier with a 2-0 win at Preston North End on Friday, but there won't be a clean sweep from these three sides as the Hatters and Clarets meet at Kenilworth Road on Monday night (20:00, Sky Sports Main Event).

Read below for my Luton vs Burnley prediction and all the latest team news ahead of the first-round fixture.

Football Odds

Team News

Luton have an injury crisis in defence with Mats Andersen, Amari'i Bell, Reece Burke, Daiki Hashioka and Teden Mengi all injured, and captain Tom Lockyer still unavailable. As a result, Reuell Walters is likely to make his debut at centre-back, and the 19-year-old could be joined by Tom Holmes and fellow teenager Joseph Johnson.

Shandon Baptiste arrived on a free from Brentford over the summer and looks set to make his first start on Monday, but there is some familiarity at the top end of the pitch with Carlton Morris and Elijah Adebayo, who both hit double figures in the Premier League last season, set to lead the line.

Burnley have several players sidelined through injury including Jordan Beyer, Aaron Ramsey and Nathan Redmond, while it remains to be seen if Manchester United-linked Sander Berge will feature.

Vaclav Hladky started in goal ahead of James Trafford in Burnley's last pre-season friendly, a 1-1 draw with Cadiz last Sunday, and looks set to be given the nod ahead of the Englishman at Kenilworth Road.

Luton vs Burnley Odds

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Luton are 11/8 to start the season off with all three points, giving them an implied win probability of 42.1%, while Burnley are 2/1, or a 33.3% chance, to triumph at Kenilworth Road for a third-straight time having won on their last Championship trip there in February 2023 and in the Premier League last October.

The last meeting between the sides was a 1-1 draw at Turf Moor on January 12; it's 12/5 for a second stalemate of the calendar year and 11/2 for a repeat of the scoreline.

Luton to win @ 11/8

Kenilworth Road has been a happy hunting ground for Burnley in the last couple of seasons, and they've actually won their last four matches there stretching back to 2005. However, the last couple were achieved under Vincent Kompany, who left for German giants Bayern Munich during the summer and has been replaced by the much-maligned Scott Parker.

The Clarets still have a strong spine with Dara O'Shea, Josh Cullen, Josh Brownhill and Lyle Foster, and they should be targeting automatic promotion this season, but they're still getting on board with Parker's tactics, and that has shown in their winless pre-season.

Luton, on the other hand, are well-versed with Rob Edwards' methods, and despite injury issues at the back, will have a strong belief that they can kick off their Championship campaign with a victory on Monday.

There should be a good atmosphere on Monday night, and that should play into the hands of the hosts, who will look to put their opponents under severe pressure with plenty of balls into the box.

Carlton Morris anytime scorer @ 15/8

Adebayo (8/5) is favourite to score anytime on Monday but I'm taking Morris at slightly higher lines. Morris (11 Premier League goals) outscored his strike partner last season, although Adebayo (10 goals) would surely have finished as the Hatters' top scorer if he hadn't succumbed to a two-month injury between February and April.

However, Adebayo scored just once upon his return and failed to fire in five pre-season friendlies, whereas Morris ended the Premier League campaign with three strikes in his last seven appearances and netted in two warm-up games over the summer.

Morris is also the club's designated penalty taker, which further boosts his chances of scoring on Monday night.

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