Luton Town got their first Premier League win ever, when they beat Everton at Goodison Park at the weekend and they’ll be looking to follow that up with another success, as they host Burnley at Kenilworth Road – with kick-off at 7.30pm on Tuesday night.

Team news:

Luton’s Ross Barkley could return for this one, having missed the weekend win over Everton. The midfielder is back in training and will likely be back in the squad, while Tom Lockyer overcame his face injury to score at Goodison Park. Sambi Lokonga and Gabriel Osho remain out. 

Burnley will welcome back Lyle Foster after his suspension, as they chase their first win of the Premier League campaign. He should be able to add some attacking threat to a side who haven’t scored in their last two games.  

Burnley to win @ 8/5

This may go against the grain given Luton Town are coming off the back of their first Premier League win but Burnley proved last term they are far superior to the Hatters. Things haven’t quite panned out as Vincent Kompany would have hoped so far and they lost to Newcastle United last time out. However, they have improved over recent weeks and their first win doesn’t look like it is too far away. 

Given they are marginal outsiders for this game, I’m more than happy to get on board. In terms of xG, Luton were well beaten by Everton, (3.13 to 0.95). They were fortunate to win that match, and I see this one as a regression to the norm. Burnley have the footballing ability to outplay Luton here, and I expect Kompany to get off the mark.

Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11

Despite their threat from set pieces, Luton have scored just five goals this term, and Burnley have managed just four. Neither side has looked particularly efficient in front of goal, with the Hatters struggling in particular from open play. 

This is unlikely to be a classic either way, but a narrow Burnley win feels like the best pick. The under 2.5 goals gives us the option to cover either result, as long as we don’t get a heap of goals. With what we have seen so far this campaign, that feels incredibly unlikely.