Luton vs Bolton Prediction: League One side can pull off cup shock

Luton Town’s quest for survival in the Premier League is their primary focus this term, but the FA Cup this weekend will provide a welcome break from the stress and the pressures of the top flight. 

They host League One’s promotion-chasing Bolton Wanderers at Kenilworth Road (Sunday 14:00), in what could be a Championship fixture this time next year. For now there are 27 places between the two sides in the football pyramid, and we have taken a look at this FA Cup Third Round clash. 

Team News

Dan Potts and Reece Burke are edging closer to returns for Rob Edwards, and both of them could play some part as the manager looks to rotate his relatively small squad. Tim Krul could make an appearance in goal after joining in summer, while Cauley Woodrow and Chiedozie Ogbene are also in need of minutes. 

Bolton meanwhile have been without Jack Iredale for the past two matches and he is unlikely to be rushed back for this one as he recovers from a small knee issue. Surprisingly, Premier League Luton are not missing any players to the Afcon or Asian Cup, but Bolton are. Gethin Jones is an Australian international and will miss the next month, while Carlos Mendes Gomes has jetted off to play for Guinea-Bissau in the Ivory Coast. 

Match Odds

Luton are the favourites for this one, priced at 3/5 to make it to the next round in 90 mins, while Bolton are 4/1. A draw in 90 minutes is priced at 13/5, BTTS is 5/6 and over 2.5 goals is the same price. 

Bolton to win in 90 minutes @ 4/1

Bolton have won their last four games on the bounce over the festive period to drag themselves up to second in League One. There’s no doubt that Ian Evatt possesses one of the finest squads in the third tier and they should be able to put together a title tilt over the second half of the season.

With the likes of Dion Charles and Kyle Dempsey, I believe they will be able to take the game to a Luton side who probably won’t fancy a cup run at this stage of the season. The Hatters already have a relatively thin squad, and have much bigger games to come in January. Looking at the draw ahead of the weekend, this is one you would bookmark as a potential upset.

I’m a huge fan of Bolton this term and believe they can go on to win League One. It would come as no surprise to me if they pull off an upset against Premier League Luton, and the price of 4/1 is well worth backing ahead of kick-off.

Over 2.5 goals in 90 minutes @ 5/6

I’m hoping both teams will be able to shake off any stress and enjoy themselves in this cup game. Both sides are desperate for points in the league, yet they don’t have to worry about that for one weekend only. If you combine this freedom with the fact that several fringe players should be given the opportunity to start, we could see a fairly open and attacking game play out. 

Luton have also played out two thrillers in their last two matches, first beating Sheffield United 3-2, before losing by the same scoreline to Chelsea. Bolton have been fairly solid defensively in League One in recent weeks, but they are facing a far higher quality of opposition here and could concede goals. As a result of all of these factors, I believe the odds of 5/6 for there to be over 2.5 goals marks excellent value. 

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