Liverpool vs Lille Prediction: Darwin to lead the dance at Anfield

Two sides enjoying strong seasons on the domestic and European fronts meet in the Uefa Champions League at Anfield on Tuesday (20:00, Amazon Prime Video) as Liverpool host Lille OSC. The English club (1st) have all but mathematically secured safe passage to the last 16, avoiding a play-off tie in the process, while their French counterparts (8th) can strengthen their top-eight chances with a victory on Merseyside in midweek.

Below is my Liverpool vs Lille prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this league phase fixture between the Reds and Les Dogues.

Team News

Joe Gomez (hamstring) remains Liverpool's only confirmed injury absentee but having missed Saturday's 2-0 win at Brentford in the Premier League and Monday's open training session, Diogo Jota (knock) is a doubt to feature against Lille.

Despite Liverpool's strong position in the table, head coach Arne Slot isn't expected to make sweeping changes in Europe, although some tinkering could be in order.

Conor Bradley could replace Trent Alexander-Arnold at right-back while on the other side, Andy Robertson is likely to come back in for Kostas Tsimikas. Jarell Quansah is a potential starter at centre-back in place of Ibrahima Konate, but it's more likely the Frenchman will start and be brought off for the Englishman in the second half.

In midfield, Curtis Jones may get the nod ahead of Dominik Szoboszlai, who has been preferred to the 23-year-old for the last two matches.

Up front, Saturday's match-winner Darwin Nunez, who bagged a brace against the Bees, could take the place of either Luis Diaz or Cody Gakpo.

Football Odds

Edon Zhegrova (groin), Samuel Umtiti (knee), Nabil Bentaleb (heart), Tiago Santos (knee), Mathias Fernandez-Pardo (ankle) and Ethan Mbappe (muscle) all missed Lille's 2-1 win over OGC Nice in Ligue 1 on Friday and are expected to sit out Tuesday's trip to Anfield.

In terms of changes to Bruno Genesio's starting XI, we could see 17-year-old midfielder Ayyoub Bouaddi or former Manchester United man Angel Gomes get the nod from the off, while Gabriel Gudmundsson and Aisssa Mandi are options to come into defence.

Liverpool vs Lille Odds

After six league phase games, Liverpool are the only club with a 100 per cent record, and alongside Inter Milan, boast the best defensive statistics, conceding just once and keeping five clean sheets. The Reds have played Lille once before at Anfield, in the last 16 of the Europa League in March 2010, and won 3-1 through goals from Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres (x2).

Slot's side are 2/7 to keep up their 100 per cent record in this season's Champions League - and against Lille at Anfield - which gives the Merseysiders an implied win probability of 77.8%. Les Dogues, meanwhile, are unbeaten in Europe since matchday one and have won their last two games in the competition. Genesio's charges are 9/1, or a 10% chance, to make it three Champions League victories in a row and record a second-ever success against Liverpool having beaten the Reds 1-0 in France in the first leg of their Europa League tie in 2010.

A first-ever draw between the two teams is priced at 9/2 and a repeat of both teams scoring, as happened in the last meeting between the pair nearly 15 years ago and Lille's last four European matches, is available at 4/5.

Mohamed Salah (8/11) and Nunez (11/10) lead the way in the anytime goalscorer market with Jonathan David (9/4) first up for the visitors.

First Goalscorer - Darwin Nunez (LIV) @ 7/2

Just when you start to detach from him, he hooks you right back in with a brace at Brentford. A double for Nunez in west London on the weekend ended a seven-game goal drought in the Premier League that went back to the first half of November, and it was just the second match in his last 15 for club and country that he had scored in.

Of course, Nunez hasn't been first choice at Liverpool under Slot, with the injury-prone Jota and even Colombian winger Luis Diaz preferred ahead of the Uruguayan up top. But, in the time he has been given on the field, the 25-year-old has failed to catch fire in front of goal, leading some to ponder whether there were indeed legs to stories of him being sold to a Saudi Arabian club this month.

We've been here before and got burned, but there is renewed hope that his match-winning efforts off the bench at the Gtech Community Stadium could be the start of something special, at least in the short term.

With his confidence, at least partially, back up, Nunez should start on Tuesday and be well up for the fight against Lille, looking to score just his second Champions League goal this season.

Lille have been strong starters in Europe, taking the lead in four of their six league phase games, but that's a record Liverpool can better as the Reds have opened the scoring in five of their six including their last five, and all three at Anfield, where they are yet to concede in the competition this term.

Nunez's only Champions League goal in 2024/25 so far was the first - and only - strike of the game as Liverpool beat RB Leipzig 1-0 in Germany on October 23, and in the last four matches he has scored in, he has grabbed the first goal.

At 7/2, the Uruguay international is a nice price to follow up his feats at Brentford with the first effort of Tuesday's tie.

Bet Builder - Liverpool to Win, Under 3.5 Total Goals, Curtis Jones (LIV) 2+ Shots, Benjamin Andre (LIL) 2+ Fouls @ 5/1

Liverpool don't really need to win on Tuesday but having won their first six league phase games they will be targeting a further two victories from their final two matches to end the campaign top with a 100 per cent record.

With their next Premier League contest, at home to 18th-placed Ipswich Town at Anfield, not until Saturday afternoon, I think Slot will name a strong starting XI against Lille and that should see them come out on top.

Les Dogues have pulled off some remarkable results in Europe this term, beating Real Madrid 1-0 at home on October 2 and claiming a 3-1 success at Atletico Madrid 21 days later.

However, Liverpool are a different beast to those two teams, at least based on how the respective sides have performed in the first half of the season, and European nights at Anfield are daunting for any visitor.

Lille do possess the second-best defensive record in the French top flight this season, though, with only Ligue 1 leaders Paris Saint-Germain (16) conceding fewer goals than their tally of 17 in the competition, and like Liverpool, four of their six league phase matches have seen three goals or fewer.

So, we can back Liverpool to win and under 3.5 total goals at 13/10, but to bump up the odds, I'm including those two picks in a Bet Builder with a couple of player stats selections.

The first of those requires Liverpool midfielder Jones to record at least two shots on Tuesday. I'm expecting the 23-year-old to start ahead of Szoboszlai and that gives him a great chance of shooting at least twice, something he has managed in both of his European starts at Anfield this season.

Jones shot three times in the Reds' 4-0 victory over Bayer Leverkusen on November 5 and went one better by pulling the trigger four times in the 2-0 win over Real Madrid 22 days later.

The fourth and final leg of this Bet Builder centres on Lille captain Benjamin Andre, who bagged me a nice 13/5 winner on Friday by getting booked in his side's success against Nice.

Andre committed three fouls in that contest, bringing his fouls per game average in Ligue 1 up to 1.6, marginally higher than his 1.5 average in this season's Champions League.

Remarkably, the 34-year-old hasn't given away a free-kick in his last two European outings, both of which saw Lille win (2-1 v Bologna, 3-2 v Sturm Graz). However, he made at least two fouls in three of his first four competition appearances this term including four in a 1-1 draw with Juventus on November 5 and three away to Sporting in a 2-0 defeat on September 17.

Away at Anfield, we can expect Andre to be in the thick of the action in midfield, where he could take alternative action to deal with the likes of Alexis Mac Allister and Ryan Gravenberch, fouled 1.2 and 0.7 times per game respectively in Europe this season.

Offers

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