Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Expect fireworks at Anfield

Six-time winners Liverpool begin their Uefa Champions League campaign at Anfield on Wednesday (20:00 BST, TNT Sports 1), with Atletico Madrid providing the opposition in gameweek one of the league phase.

Below are my Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid predictions, alongside all the essential team news and match odds.

Team News

Federico Chiesa was left out of Liverpool's Champions League squad, so the Italian will have a watching brief at Anfield on Wednesday, alongside Curtis Jones (unspecified), who suffered an injury in last month's 1-0 win over Arsenal and missed Sunday's victory by the same scoreline at Burnley.

Alexis Mac Allister took a nasty whack to the ankle at Turf Moor and was withdrawn at half-time, but that substitution was precautionary, according to Reds boss Arne Slot, who said that he also factored in that he had already used up a sub window in the first half, with Andy Robertson replacing Milos Kerkez at left-back following a difficult first 38 minutes for the Hungary international.

Mac Allister and Robertson could both start against Atletico, with Dominik Szoboszlai potentially moving from right-back into midfield, allowing Conor Bradley to make his first club start of the campaign. Jeremie Frimpong returned from injury at Burnley, but he could be set for another substitute outing on Wednesday.

Florian Wirtz could drop down to the bench if indeed Slot decides to deploy three more industrious midfielders.

Record signing Alexander Isak wasn't in the matchday squad on Sunday, but the Swedish striker is in line to make his Liverpool debut in midweek, most likely as a late substitute.

Football Odds

Atletico's star striker Julian Alvarez hasn't travelled to England after suffering a knee injury in his side's 2-0 win over Villarreal on Saturday. The former Manchester City man was withdrawn at half-time and will likely be replaced in the starting XI on Wednesday by ex-Crystal Palace forward Alexander Sorloth.

Jose Maria Gimenez (thigh), Johnny Cardoso (ankle), Alex Baena and Thiago Almada (both muscle) have also stayed in Madrid.

However, David Hancko, Robin Le Normand and Nico Gonzalez have all made the trip Merseyside despite concerns over the trio.

Former Chelsea midfielder Conor Gallagher was only used as a late substitute in La Liga on the weekend, but the 25-year-old could get the nod to start at Anfield.

Today's Football Fixtures

Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Odds

Liverpool left it late at Burnley, but that win made it four from four in the Premier League, and the Reds are 8/15 to chalk up a fifth consecutive victory on Wednesday, implying a 65.2% probability of success. The visitors, who failed to win any of their first three La Liga games before finally claiming three points on Saturday, are 11/2, or a 15.4% chance, to record their first-ever regulation-time triumph over the Reds at Anfield.

The draw is priced at 7/2, both teams to score at 8/11, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/13. Liverpool did the double over their Spanish counterparts in the 2021/22 season, beating Los Rojiblancos 2-0 at Anfield the last time they met at Anfield in November 2021, and a repeat of that scoreline can be backed at 7/1.

We will be Top Price on Liverpool to beat Atletico Madrid with selected bookmakers using Oddschecker for the comparison. (Available from 09:30 Wednesday)

Popular Bet Builders - Ryan Gravenberch (LIV) & Conor Gallagher (ATM) Both To Be Carded @ 11/1

Liverpool midfielder Ryan Gravenerch was shown seven yellows and one red for Slot's side last season, and he's already been cautioned twice in three appearances this term.

The 23-year-old was booked in his first two matches of the 2025/26 campaign, against Newcastle United and Arsenal, and he will have an important job on Wednesday to stop Atletico from launching any dangerous counter-attacks. A tactical foul or two is certainly within the realms of possibility, while the Madrid club also have several midfielders who are proficient at drawing fouls.

Koke was fouled three times against Villarreal on Saturday, with midfield counterpart Dani Parejo booked for upending the Atleti skipper, while Gallagher came off the bench and tempted Yellow Submarine defender Renato Veiga into making a challenge that brought about a yellow. Winger Guiliano Simeone also drew cautions from right-back Santiago Mourino and left-back Alfonso Pedraza. Centre-mid Pablo Barrios was also fouled twice on the weekend.

Gallagher, meanwhile, looks most likely to go into the referee's notebook at Anfield. The England international was, surprisingly, only shown four yellows in his debut campaign with Atleti, and is yet to be carded this term, although he's only started one of his side's games so far.

Still, he's committed three fouls, and averaged a foul per La Liga game in 2024/25, despite only starting 19 of his 32 appearances and averaging 51 minutes on the field.

Back on English soil for the first time as an Atleti player, you can be sure Gallagher will be right up for Wednesday's contest.

He's been booked against Liverpool before, as a Crystal Palace loanee in the 2021/22 season, and in his final campaign with Chelsea in 2023/24, he received 10 yellows and one red, down from the 14 and one he was awarded in 2022/23.

Booking Points Over/Under +42.5 - Over 42.5 @ 11/8

This selection landed in both group-stage head-to-heads in the 2021/22 season, with Atleti shown a red card home and away.

In Madrid, where Liverpool won 3-2, Antoine Griezmann was sent off for the hosts and ex-Red Luis Suarez was cautioned, either side of yellows for away pair James Milner and Trent Alexander-Arnold, to bring up the booking points total to 55.

Then, at Anfield, Felipe was dismissed for Simeone's side, and he was joined in the book by Suarez, Koke, Mario Hermoso and Joao Felix, with Sadio Mane, Diogo Jota and Joel Matip booked for the Reds (85 booking points in total).

Of course, most of the aforementioned players have departed their respective clubs, while Jurgen Klopp was succeeded as Liverpool head coach last year by Slot.

However, Simeone remains in charge of Atleti, who saw over 42.5 booking points awarded in half (four) of their eight league phase matches last season.

It was even more common for Liverpool, who saw the line land in five of theirs, including the last four, with two of those games against Spanish opposition (70 booking points awarded in 2-0 home triumph over Real Madrid, 50 in 1-0 win at Girona).

There has been a red card issued to the opposition in two of Liverpool's last three games, which have both cleared the over 42.5 mark, and so an away team red card may appeal in Wednesday's contest at 13/2.

I'll stick to over 42.5 booking points, though, which has been a winner in three of Atleti's four matches this season.

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