Liverpool vs Aston Villa Prediction: Jones to Curt-ail Villa’s chances at Anfield

Aston Villa head to Anfield on Saturday night (20:00, TNT Sports 1) without a win in their last four games in all competitions, hardly ideal form when Premier League leaders Liverpool, unbeaten in their last 12, lie in wait on Merseyside.

Below is my Liverpool vs Aston Villa prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, as Arne Slot and Unai Emery face off for the first time in their managerial careers.

Team News

Liverpool quartet Alisson Becker, Harvey Elliott, Diogo Jota and Federico Chiesa aren't due back for the Reds until after the November international break, but the rest of the squad appears to be fully fit.

Slot's side thrashed reigning Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 in the Champions League on Tuesday night and the starting XI is expected to remain largely the same on Saturday.

Caoimhin Kelleher will start in goal behind centre-backs Ibrahima Konate and Virgil van Dijk, with Trent Alexander-Arnold a certainty at right-back. Kostas Tsimikas appears to be winning the left-back battle with Andy Robertson, making back-to-back starts against Brighton & Hove Albion and Leverkusen, and the Greece international is in line to make a third successive start on the weekend.

Ryan Gravenberch and Curtis Jones should keep their midfield spots, so the only question mark is whether Alexis Mac Allister remains in the lineup at the expense of Dominik Szoboszlai.

Luis Diaz was the hero in midweek as he scored his first Liverpool hat-trick and Slot would be a brave man to drop the Colombian now. Mohamed Salah is another certain starter, so the Reds head coach must choose between Cody Gakpo, who has started and scored in Liverpool's last three games, and Darwin Nunez, who will be itching to return to the starting XI.

Football Odds

Aston Villa lost 4-1 to Tottenham Hotspur last Sunday and Emery responded by making five changes to his starting XI for Tuesday's Champions League trip to Club Brugge. Tyrone Mings, Diego Carlos, Ian Maatsen, Boubacar Kamara and Leon Bailey all came into the lineup but to no avail, as the the Villans were edged out 1-0 in the Belgian capital.

Pau Torres and Lucas Digne are expected to be restored to the side at the expense of Mings and Maatsen, while Kamara is unlikely to start two games in the space of five days after a six-month injury layoff so Amadou Onana could return in the middle of midfield.

Bailey also did little in Brugge to justify his inclusion in Saturday's starting XI so Jacob Ramsey could begin the match at Anfield, while Jhon Duran and Jaden Philogene are also sniffing for starting opportunities, though Ollie Watkins will hope to keep his spot up top.

Ross Barkley remains injured for the visitors while Matty Cash is a doubt, so Ezri Konsa could line up at right-back again.

Liverpool vs Aston Villa Odds

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Liverpool are 2/5 favourites, giving the Reds an implied win probability of 71.4%, while Aston Villa are 11/2, or a 15.4% chance, to end their winless run.

A draw is priced at 9/2, both teams to score at 4/7, and over 3.5 total goals at 1/1.

Salah (1/1) heads the anytime goalscorer market ahead of Nunez (5/4), Diaz and Gakpo (both 6/4), while Watkins (11/5) is considered most likely to net for the visitors.

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Liverpool & Yes @ 6/4

Both teams have scored in 80 per cent (eight) of Aston Villa's 10 Premier League games this season, including their last three - a 3-1 win at Fulham, a 2-2 draw at home with AFC Bournemouth, and last Sunday's heavy defeat at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Liverpool, meanwhile, started the 2024/25 league campaign by keeping four clean sheets in their first five matches, while they also lost 1-0 at home to Nottingham Forest on September 14, meaning both teams to score failed to land in any of their top-flight contests heading into their away game at Wolverhampton Wanderers on September 28.

The Reds beat Wolves at Molineux but also conceded, winning 2-1 in the end, and that was the first of four Premier League matches - in their last six - to end with at least a goal on either side, the latest being last Sunday's 2-1 victory over Brighton; in fact, BTTS - yes has been a winner in Liverpool's last three league games, starting with a 2-1 triumph over Chelsea and continuing with a 2-2 draw at Arsenal.

Under Jurgen Klopp last season, Liverpool shut out Villa at Anfield, beating the Midlands club 3-0 in September 2023; however, the Villans scored inside 12 minutes in the May return fixture at Villa Park and fought back from 3-1 down to rescue a point in a 3-3 draw.

Emery's side failed to offer much in midweek against Club Brugge but the Spaniard sent out a much-changed XI and that was the first time in a month that they hadn't got on the scoresheet, so it feels very much like an outlier.

Motivation should be sky-high in the Villa ranks on Saturday which is why I think the visitors will get on the scoresheet.

However, Liverpool have shown that they can respond to setbacks, so even if Villa open the scoring, equalise, or pull one back late on, the Reds should have enough to claim all three points in their final match heading into the international break.

Anytime Goalscorer - Curtis Jones (LIV) @ 100/30

The chances of Jones scoring on Saturday rest heavily, of course, on the 23-year-old beginning the game, as if he's brought on as a substitute, the likelihood would be that he would only have half an hour or less to net past Villa number one Emiliano Martinez.

Jones started in midweek and after only appearing as a second-half substitute against Brighton last weekend, he's unlikely to be dropped down for the visit of Villa, with his and Gravenberch's places in midfield looking pretty secure.

Therefore, I think there is value to be had in backing the Reds Academy graduate to score on Saturday at 100/30.

He's by no means a prolific goalscorer, netting just once in the Premier League last season, and only got off the mark this term in the October 20 win over Chelsea.

However, he is starting to really establish himself as a key cog in the Liverpool midfield, and his confidence seems to be soaring game by game.

Jones is averaging 1.1 shots per game in the 2024/25 Premier League but he had three efforts on Tuesday against Leverkusen, seeing his first saved by Finland goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky, and he can probably consider himself unfortunate not to have at least hit the target again in the second half.

His first shot in the second period flew high of Hradecky's goal and he also had an attempt blocked, while he was desperately close to connecting to a loose ball just before his withdrawal in the 73rd minute, and had he got to it, would surely have scored.

Jones was called up to the England senior squad this week for their October internationals and that news should spur him on again this weekend.

Villa, meanwhile, have conceded goals to Club Brugge's Hans Vanaken, Spurs' James Maddison and Crystal Palace's Daichi Kamada in the last three games - all midfielders.

Offers

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