Leganes vs Real Madrid Prediction: Hosts can hurt Los Blancos

There’s a local derby in the Spanish capital on Sunday, with Real Madrid making the short trip to Butarque on Sunday (17:30, Premier Sports 1) to take on newly promoted Leganes.

Read on for our Spanish football guru Mark Sochon's Leganes vs Real Madrid prediction - including the latest odds and team news.

Despite their proximity, these two clubs are a world apart in terms of their size, stature and financial muscle. On paper, this should not be a contest, but Leganes are giving a decent account of themselves on their return to the top flight and won’t lack belief as they target a famous victory.

They’ll also be encouraged by a defensive injury crisis that Real Madrid are currently having to deal with. While Los Blancos were impressive 4-0 winners against Osasuna last time out, a much-needed win following miserable home defeats against Barcelona and AC Milan, they were once again left reeling by a series of injury setbacks.

By the start of the second half, Carlo Ancelotti had already been forced to withdraw three players. None of those have recovered in time to feature this weekend, with a second ACL tear in as many seasons for centre-back Eder Militao the most serious blow.

Los Blancos did experience similar difficulties early on last term, when aside from Militao, David Alaba and Thibaut Courtois also suffered the same injury. They opted not to buy in January and still ended up winning La Liga and the Champions League, so recent history certainly teaches us to never write Real Madrid off.

However, with the rest of the team not functioning as well as Ancelotti might like, their current issues at the back feel much more problematic this season. With Dani Carvajal also out for the season, Los Blancos head into this game with only three fit senior defenders, two of which are left-backs.

They’ve not been that convincing away from home this term, winning just two of their six road games in all competitions. Even those victories, a 2-1 triumph in Vigo and a 2-0 win at Real Sociedad, were somewhat fortuitous, so there are certainly areas of concern for Real Madrid as they make the short trip to Butarque.

Leganes have won their last two matches on this ground. They defeated Celta Vigo 3-0 at the end of last month in a bizarre game that they were a distant second best in for nearly an hour, before ultimately racing to a comfortable victory thanks to goals from Diego Garcia, Darko Brasanac and Sergio Gonzalez.

They also got the better of Sevilla a fortnight ago thanks to a late penalty from Miguel de la Fuente, the game’s only goal. With just four goals conceded in six home fixtures to date, defensively at least, Leganes have adjusted pretty well to the demands of top-flight football.

Before this campaign, they’d not played at this level since the 2019/20 season when a final day 2-2 home draw against Real Madrid was not enough to keep them in the league.

They’ve actually avoided defeat in each of their last three home fixtures against Real Madrid, including a Copa del Rey win in 2019. However, Leganes have never previously won a league game against their big city neighbours, so they are hoping to make a slice of history on Sunday.

Overall, Borja Jimenez’s side will still be bracing themselves for a relegation battle this term, but a return of 14 points from 13 games so far represents a good start, with all three of their victories to date coming at home.

Team News

Real Madrid are hoping to have Thibaut Courtois back in goal for this game, but they are really short on defensive options with Militao, Carvajal, Alaba, Lucas Vazquez and Aurelien Tchouameni all injured.

Youngster Raul Asencio came off the bench and did a good job filling in for Militao against Osasuna, even registering a brilliant assist on his La Liga debut. He should start alongside Antonio Rudiger in central defence, while Fede Valverde may be forced to drop to right-back.

That in turn, should create an opportunity for either Luka Modric or Dani Ceballos to start in midfield. Meanwhile, Rodrygo’s injury means either Brahim Diaz or Arda Guler should support Vinicius Jr. and Kylian Mbappe in attack.

Football Odds

As for the hosts, they were also rocked by an ACL injury a fortnight ago, with Enric Franquesa the unfortunate victim. Javi Hernandez is expected to come in at left-back as a result here.

They also have injury doubts over Renato Tapia and Diego Garcia but can welcome back key midfielder Yvan Neyou who missed the last game due to suspension.

Leganes vs Real Madrid Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Leganes vs Real Madrid page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Real Madrid travel to the south of the Spanish capital as the clear 4/9 favourites, giving the visitors an implied win probability of 69.2%. Leganes are priced at 13/2 to upset their neighbours and claim all the points, while the draw is on offer at 7/2.

If you fancy Los Blancos to build on a convincing win a fortnight ago, with another dominant display, Real Madrid -1.00 Handicap is available at 6/5. You can also back Real Madrid and over 2.5 goals at 6/5, while over 2.5 away team goals is on offer at 7/4.

Leganes’ strong home form in recent weeks suggests they can compete though and you can back Leganes or draw at 7/4 in the double chance market. The home team are also priced at 4/5 to get on the scoresheet at some point.

Vinicius Jr. is very much the form attacking player in this match. The Ballon d'Or runner-up has netted nine goals in his last six Madrid appearances, including two hat-tricks. He’s priced at 7/5 to score anytime here, while he’s huge odds of 50/1 to score three or more.

You can also back Mbappe to score anytime at 1/1, while Jude Bellingham is 3/1 to score anytime following his first club goal of the campaign a fortnight ago.

From a home perspective, striker Miguel de la Fuente may be their biggest goal threat and he’s priced at 11/1 to score first and 18/5 to score anytime.

Highest scoring half - Second half @ 21/20

Despite Real Madrid’s considerable defensive issues, Leganes are still likely to be fairly conservative initially here, as they bid to get a foothold in the game against the defending champions.

Los Blancos have also tended to take a bit of time to grow into games and they’ve often been more threatening after the break when space tends to open up for Vinicius Jr. and Mbappe to exploit with their pace.

There have been just three first-half goals in Real Madrid’s away league games so far this term, while the six matches at Butarque in La Liga 2024/25 have served up just a single first-half goal, scored by Mallorca back in August.

Given that, I like the look of backing the second half at 21/20 in the highest-scoring half market.

Leganes to win either half @ 5/2

Despite losing a number of players to injury, Real Madrid still managed to control their home game against Osasuna last time out, which meant 21-year-old defender Raul Asencio was not really tested on his first taste of league football above the Spanish third tier.

He may find this a rougher ride though, with Leganes likely to test him with more direct balls and crosses. Given the visitors are also without a natural right-back, there should be some uncertainty in the Real Madrid defence and Borja Jimenez’s side, who have netted seven goals in their last three league outings, should be able to pose some problems.

With Los Blancos tending to have spells of superiority, but rarely putting a strong 90 minutes together this season, I’m back Leganes to win either half at 5/2.

Offers

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