Leeds vs Southampton Prediction: Championship play-off final could go the distance

 | Saturday 25th May 2024, 8:15am

Saturday 25th May 2024, 8:15am

leeds southampton prediction betting tips championship sunday 26 may 2024

After 48 games, it all comes down to one final match under the Wembley arch for Leeds United and Southampton this Sunday (KO, 15:00), as both clubs eye an instant return to the Premier League.

Below you can find my Leeds vs Southampton prediction ahead of this Championship play-off final, which will be shown live in the UK on Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Football.

Leeds vs Southampton Betting Tips

  • Draw (90 mins) @ 12/5
  • Crysencio Summerville anytime goalscorer (90 mins) @ 23/10

Leeds and Southampton both amassed hefty points tallies in the Championship this season, collecting 90 points and 87 points respectively, but those totals were only enough to finish third and fourth as Leicester City (97) and Ipswich Town (96) blew the competition away.

Missing out on the top two was particularly brutal for the Whites, who were heavily fancied to gain automatic promotion and were in the driving seat to achieve it until blowing their gasket in the last month when they won just one of their final six games.

Daniel Farke's side managed to regroup for the play-offs, holding Norwich City to a goalless draw at Carrow Road before silencing the Canaries 4-0 at Elland Road to book their place at Wembley this weekend.

Southampton, meanwhile, were considered long shots for the top two a few months ago but a three-match winning run in the first half of April put them in contention to gatecrash the party.

Their dreams didn't last long as three straight defeats confirmed a fourth-place finish, though the Saints did end the regular season with a 2-1 win at Elland Road, the second time this term that they had beaten Leeds, following a 3-1 win at St Mary's Stadium in September.

The Saints were paired with West Bromwich Albion in the play-off semi-final, drawing 0-0 away at The Hawthorns before beating the Baggies 3-1 on the south coast.

Team News

Patrick Bamford is Leeds' major injury doubt coming into this game after missing his side's last four matches. The striker revealed earlier this week that a big decision would need to be made on his fitness and whether he can be named on the bench.

Joel Piroe has lined up in the 30-year-old's absence, scoring twice, including one in the Whites' final-day defeat to this weekend's opposition, and looks likely to lead the attack again, ably supported by Crysencio Summerville, Wilfried Gnonto and Georginio Rutter.

Glen Kamara and Ilia Gruev are expected to offer protection behind the quartet, with a four-man defence of Archie Gray, Joe Rodon, Ethan Ampadu and Junior Firpo in front of goalkeeper Illan Meslier.

Pascal Struijk won't return until next season for the Whites, who will list Dan James, Jaidon Anthony and Liam Cooper among their substitutes.

Southampton's starting XI is slightly less predictable but experienced shot-stopper Alex McCarthy will continue to deputise in goal in the absence of Gavin Bazunu, who is recovering from a long-term injury.

Kyle Walkers-Peters will provide his unique threat from right-back, with central defender Jack Stephens likely to be asked to play out of position at left-back again, allowing Jan Bednarek and on-loan Manchester City defender Taylor Harwood-Bellis to continue their partnership in the middle.

Will Smallbone, Flynn Downes and Joe Aribo were the midfield trio in both legs against West Brom and will have a big job on their hands to break up play and provide creativity at Wembley.

Adam Armstrong has enjoyed a prolific campaign in front of goal and is set to be flanked by on-loan duo Ryan Fraser (Newcastle United) and David Brooks (AFC Bournemouth).

Stuart Armstrong and Juan Larios remain injured for the Saints, who have the likes of Ross Stewart, Ryan Manning and Samuel Edozie to call on from the bench.

Leeds vs Southampton Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Leeds vs Southampton page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Leeds are 13/10 to reverse the trend and triumph over Southampton inside regulation time on Sunday, giving them an implied win probability of 43.5%, while the Saints are 21/10, or a 32.3% chance, to make it three out of three against the Whites.

The draw can be backed at 12/5 and both teams to score, which has landed in both head-to-heads this season, is 4/6.

Betfred are running their famed Double Delight & Hat-trick Heaven offer on this match, meaning that if a player scores first and then nets again, you will be paid at double the odds. If he grabs a hat-trick, you will be paid at treble the odds!

We will be Top Price or joint Top Price on either Leeds or Southampton to win in 90 mins with selected bookmakers using oddschecker.com for the comparison (Available from 09:30 Sunday)

Draw (90 mins) @ 12/5

Southampton finished three points behind Leeds in the Championship table, but Russell Martin had Farke's number in both meetings with them, which should hand a great deal of confidence to the Saints.

However, I think the Whites have the best starting XI on paper, with Summerville, Gnonto and Rutter primed to cause plenty of problems in attack. In particular, Summerville and Gnonto should be licking their lips at the opportunity to take on Stephens at left-back.

Defence was an issue for both at the latter end of the season, with Southampton shipping five at Leicester on April 23 and Leeds hit for four by Queens Park Rangers three days later, and despite the Whites keeping back-to-back clean sheets against Norwich and the Saints shutting out West Brom in the second leg, the quality in both forwards ranks should test each other out immensely.

Ultimately I think these sides will cancel each other out, and that will see extra time beckon.

Last year's final between Luton Town and Coventry City went the distance as the Hatters eventually won on penalties, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar outcome on Sunday.

Draw in Leeds vs Southampton at 12-5

Crysencio Summerville anytime goalscorer (90 mins) @ 23/10

The Championship Player of the Season enjoyed a sensational campaign in front of goal, netting 19 times in 43 appearances before adding a 20th in the second-leg win over Norwich, a strike which ended a three-game barren run.

Summerville hasn't scored against the Saints yet this season, but the vastness of the Wembley pitch should be to his advantage as he looks to drag the likes of Bednarek and Stephens into the channels and use his searing pace to get in on goal.

The likes of Gnonto and Piroe are more prone to being substituted, so the Dutchman should be afforded plenty of playing time to get himself on the scoresheet. At 23/10, I think he provides more value than Piroe and Armstrong (both 2/1).

Crysencio Summerville anytime goalscorer in Leeds vs Southampton at 23-10

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