Leeds vs Southampton Prediction: A taster of a potential play-off final

 | 3rd May | 

4 mins read

Leeds vs Southampton

Leeds United welcome Southampton to Elland Road on the final day of the Championship season on Saturday (Sky Sports, 12:30) with the Whites's chances of automatic promotion looking slim. Following Ipswich Town's win over Coventry City in midweek, Leeds' chances of automatic promotion has been taken out of their hands as the Tractor Boys only need a point at home to Huddersfield Town to go up.

As they prepare for the Saints on Saturday, both teams will be wanting to end the season strongly and gain some momentum ahead of the play-offs, which looks like Leeds' destiny now. The two could potentially meet in the final so there is a psychological advantage to be gained here. Here are my Leeds vs Southampton predictions, including team news and match odds.

Leeds vs Southampton Betting Tips

  • Correct score: 2-2 @ 12/1
  • Over 3.5 goals @ 6/5

Match Odds

Leeds are the 8/15 favourites to come out on top, giving them an implied probability of 65.2%. Southampton are on offer at 4/1, which gives them just a 20% chance of coming away with the three points. The draw can be backed at 3/1 (25%).

Both teams to score is marketed at 4/7, and no team has found the back of the net in more games than Southampton this season (40). Over 2.5 goals is 1/2.

Leeds winger Crysencio Summerville has scored 19 goals in the league this term and is valued at 6/4 to score anytime on Saturday. Adam Armstrong has netted 20 for the Saints and he is priced at 23/10 to score any point during the game.

Team News

Patrick Bamford is a doubt to feature for Leeds on Saturday having been absent in last week's defeat to Queens Park Rangers. Dan James is ruled out with a muscle tear, joining Pascal Struijk in the treatment room.

Daniel Farke has a healthy squad other than that, which he hopes will remain the same if his side are set to be involved in this year's play-offs.

Southampton midfielder Stuart Armstrong is the only notable absence heading into the weekend, with Saints boss Russell Martin having most of his key assets available to play.

Correct score: 2-2 @ 12/1

When looking at value for this contest I did like the look of backing a draw at 3/1, but then I thought why not go further and go for a score prediction. I do like the look of a 2-2 between these two teams because there is an incentive for both of them to get a win. Leeds have an outside shot of securing automatic promotion, while Southampton will want to get back to winning ways ahead of the dreaded play-offs.

There is so much quality on both sides that makes me think that goals will not be an issue here, especially when the Saints have scored in 40/45 matches thus far. Not to mention they each boast one of the highest scorers in the division with Summerville for Leeds and Armstrong for Southampton.

With that quality in mind, I do see them cancelling each other out, and with a potential meeting in the play-off final later down the line, a stalemate will do neither side any favours, which will intensify a hypothetical meeting in the play-off final at Wembley Stadium.

2-2 at 12/1 Over 3.5 goals @ 6/5

As I've already mentioned, I don't see goals being an issue here, because over the course of the season these two sides have been fantastic offensively. Southampton have scored a whopping 85 goals so far and Leeds themselves have bagged 80, so there is going to be so much attacking talent on display at Elland Road this weekend.

It is worth noting that over 3.5 goals has landed in 17 of the Saints' 45 matches this season, and six of them have come in their last eight. It was also a winning bet when the two sides met earlier in the season as Southampton prevailed 3-1 at St Mary's. Both sides have improved much since then so there is going to be a cracking game in store on Saturday, which could serve as an excellent amuse bouche for the play-offs.

Over 3.5 goals at 6/5 You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.

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