Leeds vs Plymouth Prediction: Pilgrims to make solemn journey back down south

 | January 26 | 

3 mins read

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Leeds United welcome Plymouth Argyle to Elland Road for the second time this season on Saturday afternoon (KO, 15:00), as the pair face off in the FA Cup fourth round.

The Whites were 2-1 victors in their Championship clash last November, with Ben Waine's late effort for the Pilgrims proving in vain after first half strikes from Dan James and Joel Piroe.

Both sides fought off lower-league opposition to get to this stage, with Leeds easing to a 3-0 win at League One Peterborough United and Plymouth beating League Two Sutton United 3-1 earlier this month.

Leeds vs Plymouth Betting Tips:

  • Leeds to win and over 2.5 goals @ 8/11
  • Joel Piroe to score first @ 9/2

Team News

Leeds played Preston North End on Sunday before facing Norwich City on Wednesday night, which is likely to force Daniel Farke into changes for this weekend's cup tie.

Goalkeeper Kristoffer Klaesson started in the last round and looks likely to get the nod on Saturday, and he could be marshalled by a defence including Liam Cooper and Sam Byram, both of whom haven't started any of the Whites' last four games.

Jamie Shackleton and Jaidon Anthony were in the starting XI against Peterborough and will hope to start consecutive cup matches, while Joel Piroe should start after not featuring from the beginning since the Posh tie.

Wilfried Gnonto is a doubt with the hip issue that has forced him to miss the last two games, though.

For Plymouth, teenager Darko Gyabi is unable to face his parent club under the terms of his loan agreement. Former Leeds midfield enforcer Adam Forshaw is also unable to feature after playing in the previous round for Norwich City. Tottenham Hotspur starlet Alfie Devine is also cup-tied.

Match Odds

Leeds are 1/3 to win and advance to the fifth round, with a Plymouth victory priced at 7/1. A draw in 90 minutes, meanwhile, would send the tie to a replay in Devon, and it's 9/2 for that to happen.

Both teams scored the last time they met earlier in the season and it's 8/11 for BTTS - Yes to land again.

Leeds to win and over 2.5 goals @ 8/11

Leeds are in rampant home form of late, winning their last four at Elland Road, and three of those have seen at least three goals scored in the game. In fact, Leeds to win and over 2.5 goals has landed in 10 of their 16 matches there this season.

Plymouth, meanwhile, are the owners of the second-worst away record in the Championship, having collected a measly six points from 14 games. All six of those points came in the form of draws, and seven of their defeats have seen at least three goals scored.

Quite simply, it's the Championship's best home team against a side yet to win away from Home Park since May, when they were in League One. The fact it's a cup tie and there are likely to be changes shouldn't help them much, either.

Leeds and over 2.5 goals in Leeds vs Plymouth at 8-11Joel Piroe to score first @ 9/2

No Leeds player has scored more goals this season than Piroe (12 in all competitions), but the Dutchman has found it difficult to start games of late, beginning the last four in the league on the bench.

He did start in the third round against Peterborough, though, playing nearly the entire game, and his last appearance - a 2-1 victory over Preston - saw him score a winning penalty in stoppage-time.

The Dutchman should get the nod ahead of Bamford on Saturday, and he's 5/4 to score anytime.

More value can be found in backing the forward to net the first goal of the game, though, at 9/2, and it only took him 28 minutes to find the net against the Pilgrims in November.

Joel Piroe to score first in Leeds vs Plymouth at 9-2Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.

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