Lecce vs Cagliari Prediction: Red mist to descend again for I Giallorossi

Bottom-of-the-table Lecce will be looking to secure a first win of the Serie A season on Friday (19:45 BST, DAZN), when they welcome Cagliari to the Stadio Via del Mare.

Below are my Lecce vs Cagliari predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Youssef Maleh, Hamza Rafia and Frederic Guilbert have all been excluded from the Lecce squad as they are deemed surplus to requirements.

Meanwhile, Gaby Jean, Filip Marchwinski (both knee) and Balthazar Pierret (muscle) remain injured. Matias Perez is hoping to recover from the bout of illness that forced him to miss last Sunday's 4-1 defeat to Atalanta.

Football Odds

Cagliari will be without Zito Luvumbo (thigh) and potentially Leonardo Pavoletti (knee).

Juan Rodriguez is still waiting to make his debut for the club, while fellow deadline-day arrival Jose Pedro may have to wait further for his first start following his new side's 2-0 victory over Parma last Saturday.

Today's Football Fixtures

Lecce vs Cagliari Odds

Lecce won last season's corresponding fixture 1-0; I Giallorossi are 7/4, or a 36.4% chance, to win again, and 6/1 to triumph by the same scoreline. Cagliari, who won the reverse meeting 4-1 in January, are 15/8 (34.8%) to claim back-to-back victories; the draw is available at the same price.

Home forward Nikola Stulic (21/10) heads the anytime goalscorer market, with Andrea Belotti (12/5), who only debuted last weekend, favourite to strike for the visitors.

Home Team Red Card Yes/No - Yes @ 10/1

Lecce (six) received more red cards than any other team in Serie A last season, and a third of their total came against Cagliari.

Patrick Dorgu, now patrolling Manchester United's left-hand side, was sent off just before half-time of their 1-0 win in this fixture in August 2024.

Then, at Unipol Domus in January, when Cagliari won 4-1, Ante Rebic, who has since joined Hajduk Split, was shown a straight red for violent conduct.

There was also a red card shown in the final meeting of the 2023/24 season, a 1-1 draw in May 2024, with Cagliari's Gianluca Gaetano responsible.

Going further back, there were three dismissals - two for Cagliari, one for Lecce - in a 2-2 draw in November 2019.

So, that's three consecutive head-to-heads with a red, and seven in the last seven going back to February 2012.

This is a game that usually produces fireworks, and I think there could be more on Friday.

Lecce have committed 35 fouls across their first three matches against Genoa (13), AC Milan (10) and Atalanta, receiving four yellows in total, and I think a red is right around the corner.

Player to Receive a Card - Gabriele Zappa (CAG) @ 9/2

I was hesitant to back a booking for a player who has been carded in back-to-back matches, but at 9/2, I think it's worth rolling the dice on Cagliari right-back Gabriele Zappa.

The 25-year-old was only shown four yellows in Serie A last season, but one of those was against Lecce. Playing on the right of a back three, he was cautioned for a 24th-minute foul on Lameck Banda, and was withdrawn at half-time.

Zappa was first booked this season in a 1-0 defeat to Napoli, and that was followed by another card last time out against Parma. He made two fouls in each of those games, and could have his hands full on Friday against Lecce's left-winger Tete Morente, who is averaging two fouls won per game this season (six in three).

Genoa pair Aaron Martin and Jeff Ekhator were both booked for fouls on the Spaniard.

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