Lazio vs Salernitana Prediction: Carefree visitors could unleash efforts at Stadio Olimpico

 | 11th April | 

4 mins read

lazio stadio olimpico scaled

A 1-0 defeat in the Rome derby last weekend has dented Lazio's European aspirations with the Eagles now four points behind sixth-placed Atalanta, who have a game in hand over Igor Tudor's side. There's a presentable opportunity to get back on track this Friday though, as Serie A basement boys Salernitana visit the Stadio Olimpico (KO, 19:45).

Below you can find all the latest team news and match odds, and read our Lazio vs Salernitana prediction, ahead of this clash which is live in the UK on TNT Sports 3.

Lazio vs Salernitana Betting Tips

  • Both Teams To Score - Yes @ 6/5
  • Salernitana over 8.5 shots & Antonio Candreva (SAL) 1+ shots on target @ 11/4

Team News

Goalkeeper Ivan Provedel is still out with an ankle injury for the hosts, who are also missing Alessio Romagnoli, Manuel Lazzari and Mattia Zaccagni again.

The biggest absence of all, though, comes at the top end of the pitch, with captain Ciro Immobile suffering a knee injury last weekend.

Guillermo Ochoa, Federico Fazio, Toma Basic and Grigoris Kastanos have been ruled out for the visitors through injury, while Konstantinos Manolas is a doubt at centre-back, which could see Jerome Boateng line up at the heart of the defence.

Last season's top scorer Boulaye Dia hasn't played for his club side since February 24 and there has been no update on any potential return date, with suggestions that his absence could be disciplinary related.

Match Odds

Lazio are heavy favourites for Friday - their odds of 2/7 give them an implied win probability of 77.8%, while Salernitana are 10/1 - or a 9.1% chance - to win away for just the second time this season.

The draw can be backed at 9/2 and over 2.5 goals at 8/11.

Both Teams To Score - Yes @ 6/5

Both sides rank mid-table for BTTS - Yes in Serie A this season, with Salernitana ninth (17/31 - 55%) and Lazio 12th (15/31 - 48%).

Lazio haven't scored in their last two games but they were against sides challenging for Champions League places - Juventus and Roma. Salernitana are streets behind in terms of quality, evidenced in the fact they have kept just two clean sheets all season and not since February 4.

Friday's hosts have struggled to shut out the opposition in recent months too, keeping just one clean sheet in their last eight. They might be confident of recording a rare one this week against a side 31 points below them in the table, but Salernitana's impending relegation should work in the Salerno club's favour as they have little to fear now.

They showed great fight to recover from a two-goal deficit and draw 2-2 with Sassuolo last week, and that sort of spirit could guide them to a goal in Rome.

#PickYourPunt - Salernitana over 8.5 shots & Antonio Candreva (SAL) 1+ shots on target @ 11/4

As previously alluded to, Salernitana are cut adrift at the bottom of Serie A and are sure-fire candidates for the drop with just seven games remaining. As such, I expect them to play with the pressure off in the last month of the season, and that could lead them to commit men forward and fire off some shots.

Their average for the season is 10.4 shots per game and they've gone above that number in four of their last six. They had 13 shots in the reverse fixture between these sides in November, when I Granata emerged 2-1 winners.

Lazio, meanwhile, concede 12.9 shots per game on average in Serie A this season and have allowed at least nine in their last 13 matches.

One player sure to pose a danger to their goal is former Lazio winger Antonio Candreva, who has been a bright spark in a dismal season for Salernitana.

The 37-year-old is their top scorer in Serie A with six goals, and he needs just one more to equal last season's tally (seven). One of his strikes this season did come against Lazio, and it proved to be the winner in Salerno, and he also struck in a 3-1 win at the Stadio Olimpico in October 2022.

Candreva scored a penalty last Friday against Sassuolo and has registered a shot on target in his last three games - he averages 0.7 shots on target per game in the competition.

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.

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