Lazio vs Juventus Prediction: Can Tudor revive goal-shy hosts?

Lazio host Juventus at Stadio Olimpico on Saturday evening (17:00) live on TNT Sports 1, with the visitors looking to strengthen their push for qualification for next season's Champions League.

Our Italian Football expert has previewed this one for us at Betfred Insights as he picks out his two Best Bets in his Lazio vs Juventus prediction.

Both sides have gone through some torrid times recently, having achieved only seven points in the last eight matches. But whereas the Bianconeri are still on course to qualify for next season’s Champions League, it looks increasingly unlikely the hosts will take part in Europe’s top competition for two consecutive seasons.

After four defeats in a row, Maurizio Sarri decided to resign amid constant and frequent disagreements with some of Lazio's top players.

This Lazio side has looked profoundly different from the one that ended last season as runners-up and since the departure in the summer of, arguably, their best player, Sergej Milinković-Savić, they never looked able to play with the same intensity as in previous years.

During the current campaign the Biancocelesti have decided to surrender possession (they’re eight in Serie A for ball retention, whereas the finished 2022/2023 in fourth position), play more on the counter and try to get the best out of tight margins situations.

It’s not by chance that Lazio’s most important wins this season (against Feyenoord, Celtic and Bayern in Europe and in the derby in Coppa Italia) have only produced five goals.

Igor Tudor inherits a team that has got 15 points less in the table compared to last season and is very far away (11 points) from Bologna currently occupying the fourth spot.

Under the Croat manager (who played over 100 games for Juventus and also worked at the Turin club as assistant manager) Lazio is expected to switch to a 3-4-2-1 formation.

Tudor’s teams, both in Italy and Marseille in France, have always pressed high, trying to make the most of quick transitions and deployed one-on-one markings all over the pitch.

A new, more physically demanding, approach, at least for Lazio, that has proved successful for the new manager at Verona and in Ligue 1.

In fact the Scaligeri under Tudor finished the 2021/2022 season in ninth place and with the joint-fourth best attack of Serie A having scored 65 goals, only four less than champions AC Milan.

That year all the three Verona’s strikers, Barak (11 goals), Caprari (12 goals) and Simeone (17 goals) had the best season of their respective careers. Marseille, Tudor’s last club, only failed to score six times in all competitions and 34-years-old Alexis Sanchez registered 18 goals, his best tally since leaving Arsenal.

Team News

The hosts will lineup with the three-man defence made up of Gila and Casale on either side of Romagnoli. In goal Mandas replaces the injured Provedel.

Cataldi and Guendouzi, who had an excellent season under Tudor at Marseille, will play in midfield, with Lazzari and Marusic given licence to attack down the wings. Up front Lazio’s all-time top scorer Ciro Immobile will be supported by Zaccagni and Luis Alberto, with Felipe Anderson and Castellanos ready to come in the second half.

There is an emergency in attack for the Bianconeri due to Vlahovic's suspension and Milik's injury. Massimiliano Allegri will give a chance to Kean (zero goals in Serie A so far) as centre-forward with Chiesa in support.

Cambiaso and Iling-Junior will be the wing-backs, with Kostic dropping to the bench. Locatelli will be the playmaker with McKennie and Rabiot, fully recovered from his muscolar injury, at his sides. Gatti, Bremer and Danilo will play in front of Poland’s Euros play-off hero Wojciech Szczesny.

Match Odds

Despite their recent poor run, Juventus are the favourites at 6/4 - or 40% chance - on Saturday.

The Bianconeri have an excellent record against Lazio (26 wins and eight draws in the last 37 matches), but they’ve recorded their worst ever points tally (seven) over eight games since January and March 2011.

Lazio have lost their last three matches at the Stadio Olimpico. Only once in their history, in 1961, have they registered more consecutive defeats (five in that occasion) in front of their home crowd.

The odds for a home win (2/1) and the draw (21/10) are almost identical as the Biancocelesti have only obtained three points in two Serie A big matches at home, against Atalanta and Fiorentina, during this campaign.

Understandably Under 2.5 Goals (8/15) doesn’t pay a lot; in fact Lazio have the joint-third worst home attack in Serie A, with only 14 goals scored. The hosts’ 14 home league matches this season have only produced 26 goals (average 1.85 per game), the second lowest tally after Torino’s games (22 goals).

Juventus have the league’s second best away defense with only 13 goals conceded and have only failed to score twice this season away from home. Over 2.5 Goals pays 11/8.

Lazio or Draw and over 1.5 goals @ 5/4

Lazio have got only the 10th-best attack in Serie A (relegation-bound Frosinone have netted one more goal than them) and are 17th for shots. The fans hope the new manager and the change of system can revitalize the team’s forwards, none of which is currently in double figures. The Serie A top scorer is Ciro Immobile with just six goals, four of which from the penalty spot.

Despite his relative young age Tudor has over 15 years coaching experience and knows Serie A inside-out; having worked at the club he’ll know Juventus’ strengths and weaknesses and a re-energized Lazio can trouble Allegri’s men who are winless in three away games and have conceded at least once in seven of their last eight trips.

Both teams to score - yes @ EVS

The last two months have been terrible for the visitors who have only scored nine goals (three at home against Frosinone, who have got Serie A’s worst defensive record), and kept just one clean sheet.

The Bianconeri now have the same points in the table as last season, but if they maintain the same average points x game ratio they had in the last eight games (0.87, which is incidentally the same as Lazio), they’re seriously risking to be leapfrogged by Bologna and Roma, who both averaged 2.37 points x game.

Weirdly, the two teams will face each other again next Tuesday in the first leg of the Coppa Italia semi-final. But given their precarious positions in the league table, surely no punches will be spared on Saturday.

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