Lazio vs AC Milan Prediction: Back the Rossoneri to get a result

 | February 29 | 

5 mins read

Daniele Fisichella Serie A Tips

Matchday 27 has a couple of really big games on the menu in Serie A and we start in Rome with a Friday night clash, live on TNT Sports 1 with a 19:45 kick-off.

Our Italian Football expert Daniele Fisichella has filed his thoughts and he gives us his Lazio vs AC Milan Predictions, coupled with his Best Bets in his full match preview...

Lazio vs AC Milan Betting Tips:

  • Back Milan or Draw in the Double Chance Market and Under 2.5 Goals @ 11/10
  • Back Both Teams To Score – Yes @ 4/5

The game that opens matchday 27 in Serie A is a clash between two clubs that rely heavily on the cup competitions to save their season.

Despite AC Milan started the campaign hoping to challenge for the Scudetto their current points tally represents a notable improvement on 2022/2023 (five points more).

However, the clouds over Stefano Pioli have never really gone away and it feels like the manager needs to bring silverware if he wants to keep his job after the summer.

Lazio, on the other hand, have disappointed in Serie A where they have a nine points deficit compared to the previous campaign and have already lost ten games (no team in the top 12 positions of the table has suffered so many defeats).

Maurizio Sarri’s squad has not been sufficiently strengthened over the summer and the Biancocelesti have struggled when they had to play every three days.

The former Chelsea boss has often repeated they don’t have the means to compete with top clubs and perhaps this mantra has served as an alibi for highly inconsistent results.

However, next Tuesday, Lazio has almost a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to win a Champions League knockout tie for the first time by taking advantage of Bayern Munich’s crisis.

With the fourth spot in Serie A eight points away and virtually out of reach, the big match in Munich might affect Lazio’s players concentration, whereas AC Milan have been handed a much easier tie (at home against Slavia Prague) in the Europa League.

Despite their 1-1 against Atalanta, which extended their winless run to three games, Pioli must be satisfied as the Rossoneri dominated for intensity and created plenty of scoring chances.

On Monday night, Lazio were too bad to be true. They entirely left the initiative to Fiorentina and were rightly defeated (Expected Goals 3.61 for La Viola against 0.61 for Lazio) after they took an unexpected lead with their only shot on target of the game.

This time the tactic used in the big matches, and especially lately against Bayern Munich and Torino, did not pay off.

Sarri has not got the players to implement an attacking style of play against top teams, as this Lazio side continue to struggle to create opportunities and prefer to play on the counter.

Team News:

The hosts will make a couple of changes from the team that lost 2-1 in Firenze.

Mattia Zaccagni will replace Gustav Isaksen, but Ciro Immobile and Felipe Anderson will be confirmed up-front. Given Lazio’s key game on Tuesday it is expected that Tati Castellanos, Matias Vecino and Pedro will all be used during the game.

Lazzari is ahead of Hysaj to start at right back, whereas Gila will replace Casale at the centre of he defence.

Stefano Pioli will make less turnover as Reijndeers will play in midfield in place of Adli, and Kjaer could replace Gabbia at centre-back.

Jovic is still suspended, and Pobega is out until mid-April due to an injury. Giroud will play up front, with Pulisic and Leao on each flank.

Lazio vs AC Milan Odds:

High odds for all the possible outcomes on Friday night, with the visitors favourite (5/4) to get the three points at the Stadio Olimpico.

AC Milan have already won this season in Rome (2-1 vs Roma back in August) and have been 2-0 winners in the last two Serie A head-to-heads.

The draw and a win for Lazio pay exactly the same (9/4), which highlights how inconsistent the hosts have been this season in front of their crowd.

Both teams have drawn three games apiece at home (Lazio) and away (AC Milan), but the two clubs have shared the points only once (0-0 in February 2019) in the last 13 clashes.

The odds for the Over 2.5 Goals are evens as four of Lazio's last five Serie A matches produced at least three goals.

However, the lowest price is for Under 2.5 Goals (8/11), despite both teams have scored in ten of Milan's last 12 Serie A away games.

Milan or Draw and Under 2.5 Goals @ 11/10

Lazio have won just two of the last eight games in all competitions, and their main strength has been being able to manage the tight margins during matches.

Ten teams in Serie A, including newly promoted Frosinone, have scored more than Lazio, whose Over 2.5 Goals record is one of the lowest in Italy’s top flight (only 11 games, 42% of the total).

In fact, the hosts have the second worst home attack, with only 13 goals scored.

Lazio’s 12 games played at the Olimpico during this campaign have produced only 22 goals , the worst record alongside Torino.

Of the 19 games the Biancocelesti have played this season against top sides, 11 have produced less than 2.5 goals.

Both Teams To Score – Yes @ 4/5

The first goal might be decisive, considering that Lazio (3) and AC Milan (4) are among the teams that have rescued fewer points from a losing position this season.

Lazio’s best results this campaign have been three 1-0 win at home (against Feyenoord, Roma and Bayern Munich) and it’s unlikely Maurizio Sarri will set up his men to press high.

AC Milan have problems controlling games played at a slow tempo and have conceded far too many goals, especially on the road.

Away from home, only Cagliari, Sassuolo and Frosinone have conceded more goals than the Rossoneri (24 in total, with only one clean sheet in the last 11 trips).

Many injuries to key players, like Kalulu and Tomori, have affected AC Milan’s defensive performances but there’s also a worrying lack of discipline.

In fact, the foul committed by Giroud on Holm last Sunday resulted in the third penaly that AC Milan gave away in the last three games and the eleventh (in all competitions) of their campaign so far.

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...

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